Fire third barrel here?

[b-komplex]

This is the Stars $3 rebuy sat to the Sunday million. Hero and Villian are both top 10 in chips; ~140 remain with 12 getting seats so a long way to go yet.

MP raiser has a pretty big range here from my other experience with him. Villain seems pretty bad; for example he called a UTG raise with 15% of his stack and A6c and called down three streets with a pair of 6s. In spite of that who would pull the trigger here on the river? Also any comments on other streets?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP1 (t10310)
MP2 (t10415)
MP3 (t12105)
<font color="#C00000">CO (t28565)</font>
Button (t1975)
SB (t5275)
BB (t16830)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t21569)</font>
UTG+1 (t4325)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero calls t200, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t750</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t750, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t550.

Flop: (t2450) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1800</font>, MP2 folds, CO calls t1800.

Turn: (t6050) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t5000</font>, CO calls t5000.

River: (t16050) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

[Irish Cannon]

There a couple hand possiblities I see here from the CO; 78 and KQdd. I would assume it would be the KQdd since the CO smooth called the flop and the turn looking for the third diamond. If he flopped the straight he most likely would have raised on the flop to get out any flush draws (unless he had 78dd). I would c/f the river since he would most likely call a bet after hitting the K.

[levAA]

for me there are 2 possibilities

1.) he is on a flush draw - which means he is playing terrible bad
2.) he plays a small to medium PP

the flush draw is unlikely for me - even a bad player usually don't calls a nearly pot sized bet on the turn with a draw - you hold two diamonds yourself which makes this possibility more unlikely.

after villain calling two large bets (3/4 abd 5/6 pot size) i don't think he will go away on a 3rd shot.

btw i would have made my bets on flop and turn much smaller 1/3-1/2 pot size - which saves you 2500 - 3500 chips and you have the same impact.