Hand vs Shaniac @ bellagio cup

[HockeyChecker]

smells much more like a flush draw to me based on timing/river bet. id probs call it off

[ZJ123]

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ZJ if he's betting a 3 that strong what reason is for it to get him off a chop? Or to get something worse to call.

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well with the line JC takes it looks like he never has a King and always has a flush draw/random air/or a 3... meaning, there no value in a 15k bet, b/c hes always has air or is chopping

[nath]

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He could have [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or QQ-44 to go with the naked K.

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What? How in the world does he have QQ-44? He's overlimping queens preflop, then calling a check-raise on a K33 board? And overpotting the river after the board comes K-A?

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He limped so he's unlikely to have an ace.

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What? That doesn't make sense. Hero limped with an ace.

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He could very easily have a hand like TT or 88 in this spot too.

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What?! How in the WORLD does he show up with a medium pair on this board with this action?

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He could have picked up the K.

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Uh, yeah, he "could have". Given that we're facing an overbet of the pot on a river where a K is the only card we have to worry about, yeah, it's kind of important to consider.

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A is a great river card and his bet is excellent.

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Why is the ace a great river card?

You seem to have enumerated every possibility without regard as to why any of them are possible and none of the logic or frequency of any of them.

[J.C. Alvarado]

I actually thought that if he didn't play a 34s or 37s type hand the exact same way..he missplayed the trip 3's. It just makes so much sense to smooth call b/c 3 betting a hand like 63 on that flop won't ever get you called by a worse hand. I figured if I was in his spot with a hand like 34s I'd for sure bet the river like that because it is so obv that I either have a 3 that he can push off or a worse hand that he'd beat anyway, so its pretty much win win except for the times I get tricky and decide to double check a hand like AK there (which would be very rare).

At the same time I cant put him on a king that much because I figured he'd check the flop or fold to the c/r with a lone K. Are kings that are big enough to call a c/r on that flop really limping there often? maybe AK but probably not.

If the riv wasn't an ace I give up on the pot probably, but since there is hardly ever a chop anymore I think I have to check call here.

[Alex Jacob]

i haven't read the responses but i think with a bad flush draw he'd have to take a stab when you check the turn. so maybe he could check behind the nut flush draw but i can't see him making that bet either as a bluff or for value if he rivered aces up. i give shaniac credit for kings full here i think, but a tough situation in any case.

aj

[NYWalker]

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So 115 or so left 100 pay, 800/1600, I have about 85k shane has about 120k.

I limp A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (I rarely limp), shane limps behind, button limps, sb and bb are in.

Flop 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

checks to me, I check, shane bets 3,500. Folds to me I make it 12,500. Shane calls after about 10 seconds.

Turn K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check he checks.

River A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check fast he bets 34,000 into roughly 30k.

Also, what do you put him on and why?

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I think his hand is KTs/KJ.

From his past TV plays, he passively plays TPGK on the flop to control the pot size against draw. When you c/r the flop, you can have a 3, flush draw or a weak King, he folds most hands except King, 3 and flush draw. But he checks the turn and bets the river, I think his range is down to a King. Given he limps pf, probably KTs.

The river bet is very good. From his plays on TV, he wouldn't bet the turn with King though some other palyers may value bet the turn.

I fold the river. I don't think he bluffs this river.

[THAY3R]

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I think his hand is KTs/KJ.

From his past TV plays, he passively plays TPGK on the flop to control the pot size against draw.

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?

[etown]

i definatley think this is a call in pos. he sees you check twice showing weakness
after your check raise on a bluff able flop with the money in there i think he has to take a strong stab at it if he wants to pick it up
if he had a huge hand i think he would v bet it in the circumstances

[J.C. Alvarado]

I don't agree with people that say he only bets a K on the riv. He's not betting a 3 after I make it obvious that I don't have a K? There is tons of value in betting a 34s type hand there because it might get me to fold the chop.

He had K8 btw

PS I agree w/ Alex that he probably bets the turn w/ a flush draw.

[mastr]

for group imput here, ike and I both believe its a call, and fairly quickly as well. You beating other 3's here I feel is huge, plus the more important issue is he knows you're a very competent player and he knows there is no way you could possibly ever have a king here... thus your hand is literally the top end of the range you can have. Given that, I don't see how you fold to his river bet.

PS. while tanking, right before calling say "nobody calls JC a chicken" then windmill slam your cards.