3/6 LO8, nut flush and emergency low

[jfk]

The chat box was quite active after this hand though I felt it was fairly straightforward. Comments on all streets welcomed but my main interest is how best to think about the turn.

I have no numbers on the two villains though both have proven to be of above average aggressiveness.

No converter for this site.

Dealt 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the SB

UTG +1 limps
folded to MP1 who calls
Hero calls is the SB (the SB is $1.50 in this game)
BB checks

Flop is: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero bets
BB raises
UTG+1 folds
MP1 calls
Hero calls

Turn A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero checks
BB bets
MP1 raises)
Hero calls
BB 3bets
MP1 calls
Hero calls

River K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero bets
BB calls
MP1 raises
Hero three bets
BB folds
MP1 calls

Thanks in advanced for your thoughts.

[chillrob]

Looks like BB probably has a straight, and MP1 probably has you beat for low, or at least one of them probably does.

Not sure about the odds, but with 9 flush outs and 4 outs to a boat that would probably be good, I think I would still cold call two bets on the turn. Not sure if it is really worth it with the threat of it being reraised or capped though. No way you are going to scoop unless maybe if the river is the 2 of clubs.

[Noir_Desir]

The turn is a clear fold in my opinion.

You get 1:4 odds, not even considering a possible 3bet. You are only playing for half the pot.

[I dunno]

You need to fold once MP raises on the turn.

[Buzz]

jfk - Looks like BB has a straight (from the raise on the flop, the initial bet and subsequent re-raise on the turn). The betting all points to a straight. Possibly it could be a set. (Doesn't matter much from your perspective, unless it's a set of sevens, which would impinge upon your outs). Hard to say if BB also has something for low.

Very difficult to say what MP1 holds. When you bet/call the flop and then check the turn after the ace appears, MP1 could put you on a counterfeited low, and simply hope to knock you out with the double bet.

At any rate, I'd be very suspicious of MP1's motives for making it two bets. Looks a lot like a move to knock you out of the pot.

Meanwhile your low is counterfeited, you have no live deuce (which might win for low here), but you do have a live trey (which also might be good for low).

For high, you have the nut club draw plus four outs for a full house. Hard to believe the seven of clubs will help anybody else as much as you, so that let's say you have 13 outs for high and an outside chance at a scoop or only low. 31 to 13 is roughly 5 to 2. (Maybe you don't want to count the seven of clubs one way or the other, and if so, 31 to 12 is still roughly 5 to 2).

By making it a double big bet, MP1 makes it tough for you to continue, but I'd guess that was the motive and tend to call the double bet. (Then I'd inwardly cringe, just as you probably did, when BB makes it three bets). And then you have to call BB's three bet, closing out the action.

You got lucky on the river but you're entitled to some luck.

Buzz

[jfk]

Thanks for all the replies. I was struggling to figure out how to price my outs (if any) for the low.

I thought 13 outs for the high side might have been a little generous and figured myself to be somewhere between Noir's and Buzz's total.

[ QUOTE ]
By making it a double big bet, MP1 makes it tough for you to continue, but I'd guess that was the motive and tend to call the double bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, which was a motivating factor to make the call.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I was struggling to figure out how to price my outs (if any) for the low.

[/ QUOTE ]jfk - I don't know either. Hard to estimate the chances of one of these guys having a live deuce (as from A2XY, 52XY, 62XY or 72XY), which would beat you, or a live trey which would tie.

23XY, 24XY, or 34XY are not out of the question for either one of these opponents.

Your two active opponents have eight cards between the two of them. Considering the cards you can see after the turn, and assuming no bias for or against deuces, the probability neither has a deuce is
C(40,8)/C(44,8) = 0.434, making the probability at least one of them has a deuce 0.564.
0.564/0.434=~4/3.

Thus I'd guess it was about four to three that one of them did have a deuce, and if so, probably also had another low card to go with it.

Taking a wild, wild stab, maybe you should expect to win low in the neighborhood of one fifth, one fourth, or one third of the time. That's a pretty wide range, but leaves you with more than an infinitesimal chance to win for low. And some of the time (two out of five?) you'll also win for high, so that maybe<ul type="square">.4*.25=10% you scoop
.4*.75=30% you win high only
.6*.25*2/3=10% you win low only
.6*.25*1/3=5% you tie low only
.6*.75=45% you lose[/list]That's admittedly very crude, but in terms of my experience, not unrealistic.

Buzz

[benwood]

When you check the turn,you invite MP1 to raise you &amp; force you out. It's better,imo, to bet the turn rather than check &amp; then call 2 big bets cold.If you bet out,you give BB a chence to raise &amp; possibly knock Mp1 out.

(Hi Buzz.Long time.Ben)

[BooNaNy]

Some of you would actually fold on the turn? LOL... Why even play cards? Stick with CDs...

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
When you check the turn,you invite MP1 to raise you &amp; force you out.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Ben - I agree. When Hero checks this turn it looks a lot like Hero just got his ace for low counterfeited (which indeed is exactly what happened).

But although Hero lost his counterfeit protection for low on the flop and then got counterfeited for low on the turn, Hero still has the nut club draw (plus some other outside chances).

It's hard for Hero to see two bets coming (unless it often happens that way against these opponents). Against some opponent pairs, there would only be one bet, or maybe even none.

But although I don't think a bet and a raise is inevitable, I do agree with you that checking invites a bet and a raise.

[ QUOTE ]
It's better,imo, to bet the turn rather than check &amp; then call 2 big bets cold.

[/ QUOTE ]I think it depends on the two opponents involved. I actually prefer one bet on the turn to no bets or two bets, but it's hard to control that from out of position.

(I'd probably bet myself, but I can see checking with a very aggressive BB sitting behind me. I don't want BB to make it two bets.)

[ QUOTE ]
If you bet out,you give BB a chance to raise &amp; possibly knock MP1 out.

[/ QUOTE ]But that's not what Hero should want with his nut flush draw.

[ QUOTE ]
(Hi Buzz.Long time.)

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Ben - Are you still playing at the Bike?

Take care - Buzz