NL10, TT OOP vs Min Raise

[cjk73]

In short time at table saw villain min raise twice with speculative hands (A3s, QTs) and called a reraise. Stats are 35/18/0.6 over a paltry 17 hands

Please critique thinking here...

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $18.15
UTG+1: $3.70
MP1: $10
MP2: $10
CO: $6.40
Button: $1.70
Hero: $9.60
BB: $5.65

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to $0.2</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.9</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Villain min raises, got a vulnerable pair to villains range, raise. Villain flat calls, premium pair or AK unlikely, probably has Ax.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($1.9, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1.3</font>, MP1 calls.

Hmm, can villain have a ragged K or KQ, KJ? Why invite a reraise with a min bet of KQ, KJ? Probably hit the 8 or 9 (A9, A8) or has JT? What does he put me on though to make the flop call? Straight draw seems more likely I guess.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($4.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.3</font>, MP1 calls.

This is a blank or it paired the low end of a draw (he CANT have 10 7 or 7 5). Calls again...what hand can call here that is not a draw? A Set? Set raises here, no? Villain is &lt; 1 pfa so maybe getting called down with middle pair.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($11.1, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero is all-in $4.1</font>, MP1 calls.

Thinking here is K is irrelevant, was already behind if he had one. Perhaps a check to snap a bluff is better?

Results (in white):
Final pot: $19.3
<font color="white">Hero Th Ts
MP1 showed Ad Kh

Yikes! Didnt expect this. Figured AK either reraises pf or raises flop or at least turn!

Rip me a new one please. </font>

[foal]

A lot of NL10 players are not readable so you're probably overthinking here, especially since it sounds like his play is poor. Obviously his range is pretty wide.

"Villain is &lt; 1 pfa so maybe getting called down with middle pair."

I think this reasoning is a little flawed. Low aggression doesn't mean he will call down with bad hands necessarily. Some players are tight-passive after the flop. What you'd want to look at if you actually had a good hand sample on him is "% folds to flop bet". If it's low then you can keep value betting your TT. You only have 17 hands on him, though, so you can't rely on stat reads.

Given the size of your bets, I don't think you're getting called by a worse hand very often. Especially the turn bet.

Don't post results, I'm struggling not to be biased here.

[SABR42]

Check turn.

[cjk73]

[ QUOTE ]

Given the size of your bets, I don't think you're getting called by a worse hand very often. Especially the turn bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

So given the turn bet, shut down river? Turn bet bad?

[cjk73]

[ QUOTE ]
Check turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold to any bet? If he checks behind, C/F river?

[CaptVimes]

Yeah, c/f turn, if he bets he's got a k or better, remember low aggression factor. If he checks through I think I check/call the river if he doesn't get nutty. He bets weak so you might get a cheap showdown.