Missed flop steal attempt

[milesdyson]

he might check a better hand on an A turn. he probably calls down a turn raise on a K. he might check two little clubs after we call a turn J (he might check). pretty sure it's fairly close. it's 5.67 bets, too.

[TheHip41]

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he might check a better hand on an A turn. he probably calls down a turn raise on a K. he might check two little clubs after we call a turn J (he might check). pretty sure it's fairly close. it's 5.67 bets, too.

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in my experiece, I hardly ever get a free card on the turn here

[milesdyson]

ok, that's fine.

some assumptions:

1. he does not have a monster often at all.
2. he will call down a turn raise on a K 100% of the time.

for no real reason i'll just pick a random pair hand to approximate our turn equity on a K. i'll even give him a gutshot. i have no idea how accurate this is...

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qc 6c Th Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s Kc 35 79.55 9 20.45 0 0.00 0.795
9s Td 9 20.45 35 79.55 0 0.00 0.205

let's assume 80% equity on a turn K.

how often do we turn a K? about 6% (3/47=0.064).

so 6% of the time you'll win 80% of three extra bets (i know this is rough and i'm just doing it to see what it says).

0.8*3 = 2.4bb = 4.8bb

add that on to our 5:1 flop odds and you're at ~10:1, which is not terribly far away from the 6% of turning a K. add in the chance of him checking a turn A/J, the backdoor straight and flush outs, the tiny chance he gives up his bluff on the river when our hand was good (after we turn a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J), and whatever miniscule metagame benefits this has over folding the flop, it is close.

[TheHip41]

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ok, that's fine.

some assumptions:

1. he does not have a monster often at all.
2. he will call down a turn raise on a K 100% of the time.

for no real reason i'll just pick a random pair hand to approximate our turn equity on a K. i'll even give him a gutshot. i have no idea how accurate this is...

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qc 6c Th Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s Kc 35 79.55 9 20.45 0 0.00 0.795
9s Td 9 20.45 35 79.55 0 0.00 0.205

let's assume 80% equity on a turn K.

how often do we turn a K? about 6% (3/47=0.064).

so 6% of the time you'll win 80% of three extra bets (i know this is rough and i'm just doing it to see what it says).

0.8*3 = 2.4bb = 4.8bb

add that on to our 5:1 flop odds and you're at ~10:1, which is not terribly far away from the 6% of turning a K. add in the chance of him checking a turn A/J, the backdoor straight and flush outs, the tiny chance he gives up his bluff on the river when our hand was good (after we turn a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J), and whatever miniscule metagame benefits this has over folding the flop, it is close.

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yeah, i know. good math. i just hate peeling in spots like this, and folding when the turn is a 4.

This is just one of those spots in LHE, shorthanded that good players are going to get run over, and there isn't much you can do. That is why laggy players survive, they win the pots like this.

[kimchi]

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This also might be a good spot to limp the button. It would be better if villain had a lower pfr but against this guy you need a hand to take to showdown. K7 aint it.

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I sometimes think this but I hate limping unless I'm over-limping a small pair or small suited-connector after limpers.

If I'm first in I raise.

Raising can usually knock out the SB, whereas limping only encourages a 3-way pot making me hate my K-rag.

Against someone with what might be approching 100% defence of BB, and who loves to donk the flop - I see little value making steal attempts with crappy hands.

I always use steal attmp, BB defend, and cold-called pf on my HUD which helps to decide who to attempt a steal against and whether to attempt it from the CO.

[mvoss]

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btw, the fact that he is a sucky showdown bound station should make this an auotmatic steal: you have a hand with showdown value, you can use your position well, and you can value bet his ass well when you make a hand.

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He's not a station, he's a massive LAG. You're going to have to show your hand down to win here almost always and K7o is not the best hand to steal with under these conditions. You're also going to be put in a lot of [censored] spots when this guy donks or C/R's all the flops you miss.

[UtzChips]

I tighten up my steal range when BB is loose.

I fold this flop, as all I have is 3 outs to a higher pair to the board that coordinates with the flop and 4 outs to a jack that gives me a str8 draw and runner, runner flush with 5 bets in the pot.

16 outs to improve on the turn. That's 34% and we're putting in 1.5 BBs v. approx 4.25 BBs to see the river, assuming opponent bets turn and calls river when we have the best hand. So, our payoff is 2.83:1, our pair of kings has to be good and he doesn't outdraw us on the river after we turn a king and we don't split the pot when we make a straight with our lone king, and the straight isn't made with a club when opponent has 2 clubs.

Gotta be a better way to get 2.83:1 on our money.

[Tryptamean]

Those are some good points about peeling. I'm changing my mind to a fold, but I think its close and I think there are certainly meta-game benefits to let him know you won't give up super easy.

I was also off in my statement about "sucky showdown bound station". Station should be LAG. I still think you'd be crazy to not steal vs this player, for the same reasons I stated before. I mean: he is bad = you WANT to play more pots vs him.

[mvoss]

Stating that he is bad = you want to play more pots with him is oversimplifying this situation. While it's true that you want to play more pots against bad players when and how you're going to do that is important. This is not a hand I want to steal with against this type of player.

[sqvirrel]

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Those are some good points about peeling. I'm changing my mind to a fold, but I think its close and I think there are certainly meta-game benefits to let him know you won't give up super easy.



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Taking a card off and folding to a turn bet 80% of the time is hardly going to intimidate a player like this. In fact nothing is going to intimidate a player like this. The way to be successful here is not to chase razor thin draws, it is to relentless value bet your made hands.