A possible sittuation to fold aa pf - Page 3

NateAvenson · #21 07-13-2007, 03:19 PM

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Absolutely horrendous fold. Close in chip counts with each of you having an effective M of 4.5 or less. Not only do I call with AA, I beat them both into the pot with a lot more hands than that.

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What to you mean by "effective M"? If I had an M of 4.5 I am calling but my M was 13.33

Kurn, son of Mogh · #22 07-13-2007, 03:34 PM

You M is 13.33 at a full table. The game is three handed. Multiply yout M by .33 to get your effective M of 3.99.

The logic behind effective M is this. M equals how many orbits your stack covers. But orbits are all not created equal. When the table gets shorthanded, you need to adjust your M downward to reflect the fact that each orbit is fewer hands.

In your example, your M is much smaller than you think.

That being said, even if my M were 40, I'd call with AA. In your situation, I'm calling there with AQ+, TT+

NateAvenson · #23 07-13-2007, 03:53 PM

I hadn't considered the diminished value of the M. How much value would you place on your ability to win HU? Any? I know a lot of players believe heads up to be a crapshoot. Does it weigh in at all in your mind?

EazyCard · #24 07-13-2007, 06:55 PM

Why ever play poker if you can find a reason to fold AA preflop. Play for 1st...not the next spot in money. How can you fold the most +ev preflop spot there is? Im never folding AA preflop...never.

EazyCard · #25 07-13-2007, 06:57 PM

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The only way I would fold AA in that spot in a tourney is if im in the top 4 in chips, and someone ahead of me in chips has entered the pot for a reraise, and maybe I wouldnt want to play a huge pot when I can coast to 4th or 5th. But even then, I'm not sure. I guess im not good enough of a tourney player to fold AA. Is this why I can't seem to win one? =p

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If you ever fold AA in the scenario you propose, you should never play poker again.

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My thoughts exactly.

pzhon · #26 07-13-2007, 08:22 PM

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Live Satelite to $2500 buy-in. $55 buyin/61 players.
Payouts:
1st: $2500 seat
2nd: $550
3rd: Nothing

3 players remain

Button: $70,000
SB: %90,000
Hero: $80,000

Blinds $2000/$4000 No Ante

Button: Moves All-in
SB: Calls
Hero: Folds

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For fun, let's compute how bad folding AA was in your situation, using the Independent Chip Model for estimating finishing probabilities from stack sizes.

For simplicity, let's assume that the SB and button have 50% equity against each other heads up, and each independently have a 1/5 chance to beat you if you get involved, with no ties. Let's assume the seat is worth exactly $2500.

If you fold, you end up with 76,000 chips. 50% of the time, you are heads up with the SB, who has 164,000. Your equity in that situation is $1167.50. 50% of the time, the button "doubles up" to 144000 and the SB is crippled to 20,000. Your equity in that situation is $1068.75. So, the average result from folding is $1118.13.

Let's suppose you call. You have a 64% chance to win, at which point you would have 230,000 and be heads up against the SB who has 10,000. That's worth $2418.75. You have a 20% chance to lose to the SB, and get knocked out. This has some value, since if the button was also knocked out, you get second place. In fact, given that the SB beat AA, the probability that he beat the button, too, is very high; I'd conservatively say 90%, but the end result is not sensitive to this estimate. That means getting knocked out is worth an average of $495.00. Finally, there is the 16% possibility that you win the 20,000 side pot, but the button wins the 210,000 main pot, and the SB is crippled to 10,000. That's worth $531.16. The average result of calling is $1731.99.

Thus, calling is better by about $614, about 11 buy-ins. It's not close. Folding AA was a very bad choice.

If your intuition tells you it was a close decision, your intuition is wrong, and you should fix it so that poker is much less expensive for you.

NateAvenson · #27 07-13-2007, 11:16 PM

This evidence seems pretty damning. I can no longer defend the move. The one thing I didn't consider at all was the possibilty that I lose and take second right there.

Here's a new question to consider. Change one thing about previous situation. Both players have equal stacks, so 100% chance one gets eliminated. And hero is short stack by say 1K.

Now, knowing that you have a 66% chance to win, if you thought there was a 66% chance you could beat either player HU despite being a 2:1 dog in chips. Does it make sense to fold? So basically, would you give up a 66% chance to win $2500 and a 33% chance to win nothing for a 66% chance to win $2500 and a %33 chance to win $550.

Or, since I know someone will quickly point out that using The Independent Chip Model you are 33% chance to win $2500 and 66% to win $550.

That got really confusing, look at it this way: Which dice would you roll?

Dice one:
66% = $2500
33% = 0

Dice two:
33% = $2500
66% = $550

But as I said before, I think the situation where I fold is closer to Dice three:

66% = $2500
33% = $550

ReverandRon · #28 07-14-2007, 12:46 AM

I just can't imagine folding AA pre-flop under any circumstances. I mean, what the hell? You were even before you sat down. If the entry fee means that much to a player they should quit poker and just get a job. If you are worried about it that much just go all in pre-flop, and you've done the best you can.

ReverandRon · #29 07-14-2007, 12:55 AM

Just another thought. I've read you guys posts, Nate Avenson,Kurn,Son on Mogh, and Pzhon. I sure hope I don't have to play with you guys any time soon, you're too damm good for me. I read Harringtons books and thought he did some heavyweight math but you guys are at another level. Keep up the good work.

drzen · #30 07-14-2007, 01:01 AM

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I just can't imagine folding AA pre-flop under any circumstances.

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This is just stupid talk. It's easy to come up with situations in which you should fold AA. The simplest is something like this: you are playing in a satellite with four equal prizes and five players remain. You have 60,000 chips, everyone else has 10,000. You should fold *everything* including aces in this spot. You should be sitting out and enjoying a nice cold drink. Same story if there are six people, this time you also have 10,000, four spots, three guys all in. You fold your aces without a second thought. Yeah, this spot doesn't come up all that often, but there's no "never" in poker.