#11
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Re: 50nl 140bb deep, bet into on flop with gutshot SFD
I think you have to re raise here, I would make it 9, if he re raises then you have 2 choices, if you like low variance you can fold, if you dont mind the varience then I think your equity is probably pretty good here, although i'll admidt this is a spot where im more worried about shoving a combo draw then usual b/c Ac xc looks very possible here.
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#12
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Re: 50nl 140bb deep, bet into on flop with gutshot SFD
[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to re raise here, I would make it 9, if he re raises then you have 2 choices, if you like moneys you can fold, if you hate them then I think your equity is probably pretty much what you are looking for [/ QUOTE ] |
#13
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Re: 50nl 140bb deep, bet into on flop with gutshot SFD
call, hit the 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
seriously though, bet the turn if checked to and don't go nuts if you hit your flush. raising this flop totally destroys the value of your hand. anything you get it in with is going to be crushing you and anythign taht would have folded you can push out on the turn. |
#14
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Re: 50nl 140bb deep, bet into on flop with gutshot SFD
ship, standard TAGs tend to only lead with monsters on ace high boards, like sets/big draws. Ur not that far ahead of that kinda range, so I wouldn't raise.
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#15
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Re: 50nl 140bb deep, bet into on flop with gutshot SFD
I'm raising here with only the flush draw. It will let you peel off a free card and give him a chance to fold his hand.
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#16
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Re: 50nl 140bb deep, bet into on flop with gutshot SFD
I vote for the low variance play here since your flush is a baby one. I'd be more inclined to take the high variance route and raise to maximize FE if I was drawing to the 1st or 2nd nut flush instead of like the 7th nut flush.
You have 22-27% equity here to improve on the next card, and you are getting 1:2.4 odds to call. My math could be wrong, but it looks like you would only need to profit an avg of roughly .6*3 ~= $2 on the turn and river combined to break even. |
#17
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Re: 50nl 140bb deep, bet into on flop with gutshot SFD
[ QUOTE ]
ship, standard TAGs tend to only lead with monsters on ace high boards, like sets/big draws. Ur not that far ahead of that kinda range, so I wouldn't raise. [/ QUOTE ] I agree, I don't think there is a need to raise it here. Against a standard tag he won't just donk into like that especially if your the orginal pf raiser. |
#18
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Re: 50nl 140bb deep, bet into on flop with gutshot SFD
An AF of 13 isn't your standard tag. I think villian could be donking with a wide range.
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#19
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Re: 50nl 140bb deep, bet into on flop with gutshot SFD
[ QUOTE ]
Implied odds with flushdraws are overrated. Everyone slows down when the third card hits. The benefit of raising is huge, as villain will fold tons of better hands - in fact I can only see him continue with AK/22/33/45. [/ QUOTE ] If he calls with sets and two pairs, what better hands does hi fold exactly? I am confused, but I tend to think that HU a combo draw IP is better than AK OOP. |
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