AQ nut flush draw on flop

[jasonfish11]

Live 1/2 NL game (50 BB buy in max). Villian is really LAG but has been lucky and has the table covered.

UTG folds
UTG+1 limps
UTG+2 limps
MP 1 folds
MP 2 raises to 15
MP 3 folds
CO calls ($90 stack)
Hero (bttn) delt A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] calls
SB folds
BB folds
UTG+1 & 2 both fold

Flop
J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
MP bets $10. CO calls Hero (raise or call)????
(this bet seems weak but I have seen him take this line with a big pair now twice with a low flop)

[SABR42]

ARRRRRRRRR-IN.

[jasonfish11]

Guess I should say my stack size I had $110 before the preflop call.

Is the call preflop ok? I would have raised but the cold caller was a fairly tight player and his call threw me off. With a couple more comments Ill show how the hand went down.

[dalerobk]

I probably would have folded preflop with a raise and call in front of me. I really don't like the all-in here. You have position on two players. I would also be concerned about the caller, who you say is fairly tight. Does that mean he probably does not have AJ here? If he is not likely to have AJ then what do you put him on? A set? I'm not sure, but I'd be a bit weary of him. You also think villain probably has a big pair. KK would seem most likely since you have an A and Q in your hand, but QQ and AA are also possible (and of course JJ would be terrible for us). Regardless, he calls with JJ+, which you seem to think is his range. Assuming he has QQ or KK, you're only 46% to win (AA and JJ put you much worse off) and it seems like you have no fold equity. Pushing doesn't make sense to me here, especially with the other caller. He's giving you great odds to hit your FD or ace on the turn. Why not take it and see what develops on the turn? The alternative is to shove your whole stack in with (best case scenario) only a 46% of winning and no fold equity and a third player with an undefined hand. That doesn't make sense to me.

I would also note that if Villain is LAG, you probably will extract out of him if you do hit.

[jasonfish11]

On the flop I raised to $30 villan pushed and CO folded.
I am assuming my raise was too small? Now I am deciding to call $65 more into a pot of $175 and I am fairly certain from my reads (which are usually pretty good) that he has an over pair or possibly a set but I dont think he would have played a set like this so I give him an 85% chance of having an over pair 10% chance of a set and 5% chance of air.

I figured with this range I had about a 44% chance to win which makes me think pot odds Im getting dictate a call.

Is this correct thinking. By the way my read was right and he had QQ but the outcome is illrelevent. I am curious if my "logic" in calling the AI was correct or where I might have missplayed this hand.

[jasonfish11]

The cold caller is tight but not a great player. He is very likely to call preflop and on the flop with 99 TT or even 77. I dont really fear him he isnt very tricky. I assume he folds to any raise.

[dalerobk]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I raised to $30 villan pushed and CO folded.
I am assuming my raise was too small? Now I am deciding to call $65 more into a pot of $175 and I am fairly certain from my reads (which are usually pretty good) that he has an over pair or possibly a set but I dont think he would have played a set like this so I give him an 85% chance of having an over pair 10% chance of a set and 5% chance of air.

I figured with this range I had about a 44% chance to win which makes me think pot odds Im getting dictate a call.

Is this correct thinking. By the way my read was right and he had QQ but the outcome is illrelevent. I am curious if my "logic" in calling the AI was correct or where I might have missplayed this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have nothing to add other than to reiterate a point from my previous post. You read this guy as having a big pair, you have no fold equity, you have position, and best case scenario you have a 46% of winning this hand. Why raise the flop at all? You can call $10 into a $65 pot and see a cheap turn while getting great odds to do so. There's just no reason to play for your whole stack here. It makes no sense to me to raise the flop.

As played, you obviously have to call the all-in. But again, I would have just called the flop.