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#21
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i certainly raise this flop a lot...however, he raised under the gun and bet out with 2 other big stacks int he pot, and I know he does not have AAxx w/ hearts bc i have A heart draw...he had also checked some top pairish hands rather than C-bet out...I thought with all my outs plus my ten, there is no reason to shove, because when he reshoves ill be facing a really bad decision, where i have to call but am likely behind... what ended up happening was somewhat similar to what i expected...Olli had KKK and Tdogg had 101010 (drawing 0 percent bc of my quad blocker)...when i ran the hand i beleive i had a lil over 40 percent equity...I bricked o well -- i think i make this call every time. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly, people bet for four reasons, A made hand, a flush draw, a straight wrap or a bluff. You have the flush draw, a straight wrap would not like his hand since two hearts are showing and the pot is multiway. I doubt someone will bluff into 3 people when everyone is deep. That leaves a made hand being most likely here. You are definitely behind the range of hands he is betting, but folding is unacceptable since you have value to call, plus you have position. Raising is also terrible as you do not know how the blinds are going to act yet. Anyone with a good hand in the blinds is AUTOMATICALLY checking the flop since the metagame choice is omaha is to check raise not lead out. Calling the flop is the best and most EV play here. |
#22
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raise, just gamble. everyone is all in if they play at all. huh.
You're more likely to get a hand you crush to call with a raise then basically signalling you got ace high flush draw with a flat call. |
#23
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Anyone with a good hand in the blinds is AUTOMATICALLY checking the flop since the metagame choice is omaha is to check raise not lead out. [/ QUOTE ] I hope you're not serious. |
#24
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raise, just gamble. everyone is all in if they play at all. huh. You're more likely to get a hand you crush to call with a raise then basically signalling you got ace high flush draw with a flat call. [/ QUOTE ] You think a flat call indicates an ace high flush draw? I think you will find at this limit more people shove blindly with an ace high flush draw than flat call. Shoving here is worse than playing roulette or blackjack for your odds. Why not go play craps or something instead, you will be managing your money better. |
#25
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I dunno Ribbo, I think once someone plays with you enough they'd know that you're only raising then with absolutlely made hands. This hand, because of the NFD kills most wrap + FD hands which is definitely in the UTG players' range, should be raised. Also, he could have some KT98 hand or something. THe range you're putting him on is just too narrow (probably because you know he reraises based on the OP).
I pretty much don't agree with any of your analysis here. It's too nitty. You say you automatically put this guy on a made hand because of his bet, you don't think he riases UTG with QJT9 with hearts or KQT9 with hearts, etc.. and then still leads out? I think that's a silly assumption to make. |
#26
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Not at all, because most players at this level also bluff call with position. You don't *just* call with ace high flush draws.
You are just as likely to call with vulnerable hands like 2 pair, where you are hoping for a blank to hit, or just absolutely nothing, because you don't believe the follow through bet. |
#27
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whats a blank on this board with two pair?
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#28
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234678, no flush card. About 35% of the deck. That then makes you a favourite to shove the turn against every draw barring the super wrap and flush draw where you're 50/50.
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#29
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False, we're ahead of some wraps and combo draws (we have second pair on this hand too) and can be in a dominating position much more often than we're dominated. It averages out pretty close to 50% when we actually do get all-in here. However, with villian being the PFR and it being checked to him second last to act, he can really have a super wide range here; he's not even going to have anything worth playing here a lot of the time and there's no reason to let him turn two pair that can beat us if we blank out. If we had a specific read that villian never C-bets multiway and won't bet close to the pot without a solid made hand, then fine, we can use our position, but against an unknown, we should really be repotting. [/ QUOTE ] This seems like a bit too much optimistic thinking. Why everyone want to be the last lagtard to raise it up? Frickin' HE players turned laggro PLO players. Sometimes in omaha, and esp when "a bunch of people call", you're better slowing it down with this kinda hand and making sure the customers are all still in there. |
#30
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This seems like a bit too much optimistic thinking. Why everyone want to be the last lagtard to raise it up? Frickin' HE players turned laggro PLO players. Sometimes in omaha, and esp when "a bunch of people call", you're better slowing it down with this kinda hand and making sure the customers are all still in there. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly right. |
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