questions about casino promotion that im too dumb to figure out

FieryJustice · #1 07-12-2007, 04:02 PM

Ok...so I got this promotion in the mail and I thiiiink it might be +ev. Basically, it is for harrahs, where they have a 2 deck blackjack game where you cant surrender or double after splits. I think house edge is .5% off the top. Anyways, if you earn 167,000 reward credits in this specific weekend, they will give you $5000 in chips. So, how much is the least I have to bet to get to this number in a weekend? actually, id rather knock it out in 2 days, so how much will I have to bet for how many hours to get to 167k credits? Also, I will be hardcore counting, so it prob wont be THAT -ev, if at all. I am just wondering if the $5000 I get back will cover the expected losses. thanks.

uclaben · #2 07-12-2007, 05:31 PM

If you're "hardcore counting," shouldn't it be +EV regardless of the promotion?

Wongboy · #3 07-12-2007, 05:37 PM

What do you mean by "hartdcore counting"? If this means that you will be using a large spread and no playing/betting cover, then the gamne should be +EV without the promo.

If you are planning to use a minimal spread and/or extensive cover, then the game should still be break-even, so the expected value would be +$5,000 (assuming that you also play a break-even game with the promo chips).

Can you give more details about your planned playing style (bet spread, cover plays, number of indexes, etc)?

bpb · #4 07-12-2007, 06:56 PM

$5 coin in on a slot machine = 1 reward credit at Harrahs.

So 167K reward credits is roughly equivalent to $800,000 coin in on slots.

Blackjack reward credits are probably about 1/10 of equivalent slot play.

So plan on making $8,000,000 in blackjack wagers over the weekend.

So if you bet $2,000 a hand for 20 hours playing heads up with the dealer (200 hands/hr), you'll be all set.

Good luck, let us know how it turns out

SheetWise · #5 07-12-2007, 08:07 PM

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Blackjack reward credits are probably about 1/10 of equivalent slot play.

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I would guess it's closer to 1:3-1:5. Since they're basing points on total handle, the ratio should be close to the expected win rate. Let's guess 1 point for every $20.

Their software will calculate handle for each game based upon your bets, and a factor. The factor will be low in games like Pai Gow -- high in mini-bacc, etc. They will make adjustments for BJ based upon number of players, about 85-180 hands per hour. Play graveyard and mornings to push the speed and reduce variance -- figure 120 hands per hour. You've got 20 hours of play, 2400 hands.

You'll need a handle of 167,000 * 20 = 3,340,000, which has to be placed in 2,400 wagers, averaging 1,392. If you spread 1-5, you can estimate 1600x + 800(5x) = 3.34MM, which puts x at about $600. Play $600 to $3000.

bpb · #6 07-13-2007, 12:44 AM

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I would guess it's closer to 1:3-1:5. Since they're basing points on total handle, the ratio should be close to the expected win rate. Let's guess 1 point for every $20.

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My experience has been that Harrah's comps blackjack at a pitifully low rate. I stand by my estimate of 8 million plus wagered to earn 160K+ points.

SheetWise · #7 07-13-2007, 09:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I would guess it's closer to 1:3-1:5. Since they're basing points on total handle, the ratio should be close to the expected win rate. Let's guess 1 point for every $20.

[/ QUOTE ]

My experience has been that Harrah's comps blackjack at a pitifully low rate. I stand by my estimate of 8 million plus wagered to earn 160K+ points.

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If they're that tight -- then I would guess the probability of being 1,000 points short of the win is quite high.

FieryJustice · #8 07-13-2007, 05:44 PM

They also had other "payouts" if you earn less points, like $2500, $1000, etc etc. I planned on doing some sort of 1-5 spread but dont really feel like betting $600/hand as my base, as that is fairly high and things could get messy. I suppose I could play a bit smaller and see how things go. Who knows. Ill let you all now how it goes. Thank you for your help.

playersare · #9 07-13-2007, 06:53 PM

$3000 is the table max at harrah's LV double deck. the last few times I've stopped by, there have been only 2 DD tables open and any black chip players are gonna have at least two floorpeople watching every single hand. plus with only 50% pen and no DAS I think you're attacking a kiln with an ice cube here.

let's work backwards here. 167k in reward credits is $1,670 in comp. if we're optimistic lets say HET gives a standard 20% of your average bet back per hour. so # hours played x average bet needs to be at least $8350, best case scenario. 24 hour weekend (8 hrs x 3 days), you need a base average of at LEAST $350...probably up to double knowing harrah's stingy table comps. I'm a Harrah's diamond member and like sheetwise's estimates.

anything above $1M in gross wagering for $5000 cash becomes negligible since your net profit potential is only 0.5% + overpriced comps + whatever you attempt to make counting cards + variance + heat. just stick to whatever playing level you're normally comfortable with, have fun, and whatever promotional level you hit will be just gravy. the old rule of "don't chase comps" still take precedent here.

playersare · #10 07-13-2007, 07:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
$5 coin in on a slot machine = 1 reward credit at Harrahs.

So 167K reward credits is roughly equivalent to $800,000 coin in on slots.

Blackjack reward credits are probably about 1/10 of equivalent slot play.

So plan on making $8,000,000 in blackjack wagers over the weekend.

[/ QUOTE ]
you're not taking into account that both BASE *AND* BONUS reward credits count towards this promotion.

harrah's can't expect anyone to earn 167k TIER credits in a single weekend. that is 67% higher than their ANNUAL requirement for their top level Seven Stars program.

your calculation of coin-in for base credits is correct (for VP it's $10 per base point). however, all slot machines give lots of BONUS rewards credits based on the theoretical hold of the machine you're playing. bonus rewards for slots are often several times the value of the base credits earned in the same session. for example, a player coins-in $5000 in slots for 1000 tier points, but also receives 2000 bonus points at the same time. for the purposes of this promotion, 3000 points in total have been accumulated so far.

OP should probably contact a host before making a final decision to pursue this deal. at the very least, he will qualify for the "Diamond In A Day" program (if he isn't Diamond already) which gives him a year's worth of unlimited lounge access, free valet parking and line cutting.