10NL: Two pair against a river reraise

[Gorgias]

Villain is 41/2/1.5 over 60 hands. Odds on the call are obviously good, but am I clearly beat?

My thought process: villain calls preflop raise, but calls so often that I can't really narrow his range down that much. He called me on the flop, suggesting (to me, still very novice) that he had either a 9, a J, a pocket pair, or a flush draw. After he checks turn, it seems unlikely that he has a set...the flush draw misses and he still wants to reraise...is it a bluff? maybe he has a lower pocket pair? a J? A straight is possible with the Q as well, but that seems like a very thin draw, inconsistent with a flop call--and besides, I have two T's, making it a bit less likely that he has a T.

I'm looking for comments on all streets, not just the final one. Thanks in advance

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($11.10)
CO ($17.70)
Button ($5.30)
Hero ($11.20)
BB ($9.25)
UTG ($9.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls $0.10, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.5</font>, BB calls $0.40, Button calls $0.40.

Flop: ($1.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.2</font>, BB folds, Button calls $1.20.

Turn: ($3.90) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($3.90) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2.4</font>, Hero ?

[Capone]

I bet the turn as well, thats a relative blank.

[Khaos4k]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 41/2/1.5 over 60 hands. Odds on the call are obviously good, but am I clearly beat?

My thought process: villain calls preflop raise, but calls so often that I can't really narrow his range down that much. He called me on the flop, suggesting (to me, still very novice) that he had either a 9, a J, a pocket pair, or a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

You say this and then assign a fairly tight range to villain. How much is he calling down? Does he give up a lot on the flop?

Some loose villains at this level will happily call a flop bet with ace high, thinking they'll win for sure if they hit. Overs are a definite possibility. A straight is pretty unlikely though, since you're holding two of the outs.

Bet the turn here to charge overcards/flush draws.

Why is your river bet so small? I don't like betting less than 1/2 the pot unless I'm trying to induce a bluff. We aren't even sure if this villain is capable of bluffing given his low AF and PFR, which leaves us in an awkward position.

[PaulS]

Preflop and flop play are both standard. On the turn you need to bet again. Our opponent is extremely loose and probably passive too. So while you are right that after his flop call he might have a 9, a J, pocket pair, or flush draw, he can have a ton of other hands too. The hands you named probably comprise less than half his range. A loose and passive villain can also call your flop bet with a lot of Aces, hands like Q9 or KQ, and other random garbage, just to see if he can hit a hand or because he feels like you have nothing.

Given such a wide range, there is a good chance that our hand is still best on the turn. At the same time, we are vulnerable to a lot of cards...any overcard, spades, a 9 or 8. So we have to bet to protect our hand and get value if he wants to continue drawing with most of his range. A player this loose may also call another bet with smaller pocket pairs...who knows. Assuming villain is passive, we can safely fold TT to a turn raise.

As played, I prefer to check the river. The Q is a pretty bad card for us since it helps a lot of his range. I think that if we do bet, we're only getting called by better. Checking gives our opponent the opportunity to bluff a missed draw or random air. I think that check/calling a small bet while folding to a larger one is reasonable.

I would fold to the raise despite the pot odds. He isn't raising worse hands for value, so to call this raise profitably, our 41/2 passive villain has to be MINRAISE BLUFFING this river 16% of the time. No way this is true imo.

[tannenj]

agree with the other guys -- i bet turn too.

i don't see much reason to bet the river (i'd check, and probably fold to a reasonable bet).

as played, fold. yeah, pot odds are generous, but your hand isn't good often enough. looks like QJ or something.