FLopped set gone haywire - Venetian $1K

[Shorty35]

Level 2. 50/100. 10K starting chips.

Hero - 9.5K, tightish image
Villan 1 - 12K - either a total passive donk or crafty passive; unclear which (made 1/10th pot bet with bottom pair on the river with a scary board, but played top set in a manner to get max value from middle pair).
Villan 2 - 8K - seems like an aggro internet type.

Hero limps UTG with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Five see flop of A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero leads 500, Villan 1 (UTG+1) flat calls, one fold, Villan 2 pops it to 2600.

folds to Hero who thinks a bit and calls.

(Obv raising has merits, but with these stacks, I opted to call and get in on any turn that wasnt a club. I thought it was highly likely that both were on draws and that I would pick up the addtl 2K from Villan 1 and see a safe turn before getting it in with a PSB. I also figured I might stack an A if another A fell. Obv. 45 was a possibility as well, and I am better off with both Villan's $$$ in the pot if I am against that - so all things considered I decided to see the turn before commiting. I would fold if the turn came a non-pair [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I wasnt offered odds to fill up)

Then things go haywire. Villan 1 reraises to 7.5K and Villan 2 calls (all in).

Get it in or fold?

[aholthaus33]

Yikes!

Can't see anyway that one of them doesn't have the st8t, right?

Can't imagine either of them going apeshit crazy like this with aces up, but possible I guess.

I fold, thinking no way someone doesn't have the st8t personally.

Like to hear what people think on this though.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
Yikes!

Can't see anyway that one of them doesn't have the st8t, right?

Can't imagine either of them going apeshit crazy like this with aces up, but possible I guess.

I fold, thinking no way someone doesn't have the st8t personally.

Like to hear what people think on this though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your analysis is wrong.

Pot odds FTW. Actually, not even pot odds, I call here with nothing in the pot.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2847412
pokenum -h 3h 3d - 4s 5s - kc qc -- ac 2h 3c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 3c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3d 3h 321 35.55 578 64.01 4 0.44 0.357
5s 4s 339 37.54 560 62.02 4 0.44 0.377
Kc Qc 239 26.47 660 73.09 4 0.44 0.266


Only thing that you are worried about is a set of aces and AA usually is not limping behind in middle position preflop.

Easy pot odds call.

I also only calculated the worst case scenario. You are ahead a lot here. I would not be surprised to see you have a lock against 22 and AK or be up against A2 and clubs. 2 pair is very likely in this limped pot. People play bad.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2847412
pokenum -h 3h 3d - 4s 5s - kc qc -- ac 2h 3c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 3c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3d 3h 321 35.55 578 64.01 4 0.44 0.357
5s 4s 339 37.54 560 62.02 4 0.44 0.377
Kc Qc 239 26.47 660 73.09 4 0.44 0.266


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I thought I knew my equities, but this one blows me away.

I thought shorty was under 25%........

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2847412
pokenum -h 3h 3d - 4s 5s - kc qc -- ac 2h 3c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 3c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3d 3h 321 35.55 578 64.01 4 0.44 0.357
5s 4s 339 37.54 560 62.02 4 0.44 0.377
Kc Qc 239 26.47 660 73.09 4 0.44 0.266


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I thought I knew my equities, but this one blows me away.

I thought shorty was under 25%........

[/ QUOTE ]


FYI (when someone has an ace)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2847755
pokenum -h 4h 5h - ad kd - 3h 3d -- ac 2h 3c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 3c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5h 4h 606 67.11 288 31.89 9 1.00 0.674
Ad Kd 16 1.77 878 97.23 9 1.00 0.021
3d 3h 272 30.12 622 68.88 9 1.00 0.305



When someone has 2 pair:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2847758
pokenum -h 4h 5h - ad 2d - 3h 3d -- ac 2h 3c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 3c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5h 4h 640 70.87 254 28.13 9 1.00 0.712
Ad 2d 82 9.08 812 89.92 9 1.00 0.094
3d 3h 172 19.05 722 79.96 9 1.00 0.194


Also likely
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2847764
pokenum -h ad 2d - kc qc - 3h 3d -- ac 2h 3c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 3c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad 2d 82 9.08 812 89.92 9 1.00 0.094
Kc Qc 253 28.02 641 70.99 9 1.00 0.283
3d 3h 559 61.90 335 37.10 9 1.00 0.622


Victory!
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2847760
pokenum -h ad kd - 2d 2s - 3h 3d -- ac 2h 3c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 3c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 10 1.11 877 97.12 16 1.77 0.017
2s 2d 41 4.54 846 93.69 16 1.77 0.051
3d 3h 836 92.58 51 5.65 16 1.77 0.932

[Foucault]

[censored] it I call

[TCA]

Im definately calling here, you beat 2 pairs, 22 and big draws. Pot odds are good and its unlikely that anyone has AA which would be a nightmare. If one or both have the straight so be it, you win this pot and you have a huge stack early on and a great chance at making a run at the tourney.

If you are lucky:
Board: Ac 3c 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 00.591% 00.00% 00.59% 0 5.33 { 3d3h }
Hand 1: 98.819% 98.23% 00.59% 887 5.33 { AdAh }
Hand 2: 00.591% 00.00% 00.59% 0 5.33 { As3s }

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[adanthar]

with 22 this is actually a decision, 33 isn't close

[Shorty35]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2847412
pokenum -h 3h 3d - 4s 5s - kc qc -- ac 2h 3c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 3c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3d 3h 321 35.55 578 64.01 4 0.44 0.357
5s 4s 339 37.54 560 62.02 4 0.44 0.377
Kc Qc 239 26.47 660 73.09 4 0.44 0.266


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I thought I knew my equities, but this one blows me away.

I thought shorty was under 25%........

[/ QUOTE ]

Sheesh, me too. CF's analysis makes this a clear call - I thought it was a marginal fold b/c I didnt realize the equity even against 45.

Learned from TV put it even more succinctly: "Yuck, but I never fold a set" and "I presume live players at Level 2 are idiots".

Results: Hero mucked, Villan 1 shows A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Villan 2 shows T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Cornell Fiji distilled the moral of this story: "People play bad"; evidently Hero included in this case. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[RichC.]

this is pretty much an InstaCall vs most Live players