wierdest hand of my life..

[roll]

roger that.

[Pokey]

First off, you need to define "nit" more accurately. Are we talking a 7/1/3 nit or a 14/12/1 nit? Are we talking about a nit who can't let go of TPTK-or-better postflop or are we talking about a weak-tight nit who autofolds if he misses the nuts?

Without that information, here's how I see it:

<font color="blue">1. Preflop is actually acceptable to me under some circumstances.</font>

- If villain is a 7/0 type nit, you're calling for set value to stack him when your KK beats his AA. (And yes, there are some players for whom a solid three-bet can mean nothing but rockets, but they are very few and very far between.)

- Much more likely, if you think villain will fold to a four-bet, smooth-calling in position with the intent of robbing him blind on a non-ace flop is extremely +EV. Many nits in villain's position get fed up with hero's steals and fight back, expecting you to fold and expecting to fold to your raise. When you smooth-call, they get hopelessly lost in the hand, and lose oodles of money OOP with a dominated hand. Abuse that right.

- Smooth-calling gives hero a chance to put monsters under villain's bed on the flop/turn/river. Even if villain has AA, on this board an extremely weak-tight nit can be pushed off his hand should a club hit on the turn or river. Mercilessly abusing scare cards against this type of villain can be extremely profitable against the weak-tight.

- In position against a nit, hero is likely stealing all the freakin' time. If he slowplays this monster hand it could easily frighten villain into giving up his blind like a good lil' nit in future orbits. Metagame isn't just a word for high-stakes players; an observant nit at the micros can still adjust in ways that put money in your pocket. If hero always four-bets his super-premiums he gives away too much information to the observant nit down the road. More importantly, slowplaying the occasional monster helps you pick up pots against the nit on the flop/turn/river in later hands.

<font color="blue">2. If the preflop play was correct, the flop play is almost certainly correct.</font>

Regardless of why hero chose to slow-play, continuing to slow-play on this flop is absolutely correct. No ace fell, so unless villain has exactly AA or QQ hero is WAY ahead. The only hand we even remotely fear is A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and considering all the hands that villain could have, that's a minor worry. Besides, if hero is smart enough to steal hands postflop, he's smart enough to smooth-call this flop with a wide variety of hands and go for the steal later on. Hero's play would be on the turn if he had a hand or if he was making a move or if he was on the club draw; waiting is just right. Even if an ace falls, hero gets to see how our nit responds before he acts, and villain's play should be quite revealing on the turn. Not only does this play win the most from our nit if we're ahead (allowing villain to bluff again, or call down light if we try to "steal" on the turn or river) it also loses the least when we're behind (a possibility, though not entirely likely).

<font color="blue">3. I don't like the turn play.</font>

Villain gave up -- now's your chance to pounce. If you had air, you'd be betting this turn darned near 100% of the time. That means you HAVE to bet it with a hand for a variety of reasons:

- You'll get called down VERY lightly
- You protect against the club draws
- You extract maximum value from AQ
- You buy a free showdown quite often if you want one
- You add folding equity to future hands when you float the flop and bet the turn

Villain's mistrust will buy you EV now and when your strong hand is revealed it will earn you folding equity later. Both of these are valuable, and should be pursued.

<font color="blue">4. As played, I'd typically call the river.</font>

Villain likes his hand enough to bet for value, but you've dramatically under-represented your strength so calling will be +EV. However, what hands call a raise? It will look exactly like a trap, and unless villain has you beaten he will likely fold. I'd say about the only hand that you get value from on a raise is AQ -- almost every stronger hand than yours will call, and almost every weaker hand than yours will fold. The price of folding equity against a stronger hand is WAY too high to be a +EV bet, and even a min-raise has massive folding equity against a weaker hand. Smooth-call and see what just happened -- ideally, you just snapped off a second bluff or lured villain into getting overzealous with a weaker hand. If he's got AA/QQ/set/straight, shrug and move on.

Slowplaying is a dangerous strategy, but can be extremely +EV if things work out nicely. For the most part, I think this is a good play as a "mixing things up against a well-defined opponent" move, though it might not be best to have it as your default play (unless you NEVER four-bet preflop, which is a whole other discussion).

[Pokey]

Heh...just saw the results.

Notice that my strategy wins the most possible -- your slow-play snaps off a flop bluff and you still fold him out on the turn. I know it's anecdotal and results-oriented, but think of this hand as just one way in which the preflop slow-play can prove +EV when used sparingly, so long as hero gets aggressive on later streets.

[roll]

[ QUOTE ]
First off, you need to define "nit" more accurately.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain was 7/3/2 over about 200 hands. The stats were the only read I had on him.

This hand has shown me the limit of what stats over a few hundred hands can tell you about a player, especially deep stacked in 6-max (where I think even a nit can get tricky). As a result I'm just going to start 4-betting this preflop to around $15 and am getting all in on any non ace flop.

Given that what if the hand had played out this way?

(villain is still 7/3/2 over 200 hands)

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $23.90
UTG+1: $25.50
CO: $40.55
Hero: $55.70
SB: $15.55
BB: $58.45

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1</font>, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $15</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($31, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $23</font>, Hero ?