50NL - Deep, Ugly for bottom set.

[Raxor101]

No reads, new to the table sadly.

This hand makes me sick. Usually I am on the 'I will take a set to the grave' bandwagon but this one has me frozen. I believe in hand ranges as much as the next 2+2er but this screams I have JQ and it is certainly hard to think of anything I am beating. I don't know I need help.

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $61.80
UTG+1: $11
CO: $109.95
Button: $40.50
Hero: $74.35
BB: $112.80

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $2</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($10, 5 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $0.5</font>, UTG folds, CO calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $16</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($42.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $25</font>, Hero ???

[Peter Harris]

you're beating top 2 which is a possibility. I think the real concern is if you're set over set - as then boating up sinks you. If it's a straight you can pair up and possibly make implied odds up on the river (you're only getting 2.5-1 on the turn so you'd need to make up about $50 on the river pot of 92 when you do - so you need a villain who will SD a straight on a paired river when bet into). If it's top 2 which is possible too you're ahead. If it is TT or 99 you're in doody.

So, let's say he has the bigger set 20% of the time, T9 for top 2 30% of the time and the straight 50% of the time (if something "screams" i'd be inclined to say he has it at least half the time, eh?)

TT/99 20% 6 combos
T9 30% 9 combos
QJ 50% 16 combos
we're including QhJh as one of the straights with heart draw to come.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.690% 20.68% 00.01% 8964 4.00 { 7c6c }
Hand 1: 27.506% 26.43% 01.08% 11456 466.00 { 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, KhTh, QcTc, KhJs, QhJs }
Hand 2: 51.804% 50.73% 01.08% 21988 466.00 { TcTd, TcTh, TdTh, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, AcQc, QcJc, QdJh }

So you're a 3-2 dog getting 5-2. Isn't that goot?
Now let's rule out T9 which i think is a mistake, focusing on QJ and bigger sets.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 17.149% 17.15% 00.00% 166 0.00 { 8d8h }
Hand 1: 82.851% 82.85% 00.00% 802 0.00 { TcTd, TcTh, TdTh, 9c9d, 9c9s, 9d9s, QJs, QJo }

much less pretty. But would villain play QJo in a multiway pot? I guess if they play T9, yeah.

So i think it's a fold - but i also think the stoving shows that ruling out top 2 affects your equity and you shouldn't totally dismiss it.

[mephisto]

As played it's a fold on the turn. But I would suggest just moving all in on his min re-raise. Your hand is too good to just meekly fold. If it's a cooler it's a cooler but you can easily still be good here if the guy has something like KJ or any 6.

[Peter Harris]

i definitely agree the call of the flop raise is odd. The flop is the key street.

edit: so why did i stove the turn. I need my morning coffee.

[Raxor101]

Ok I am glad I am not the only one that thought this was a fold. I really really hate folding sets (as most do) so bugged me to let it go. I think it is close at least.

As for the flop play. I did plan to get it in and usually do. If the CO had been the raiser or any other player I would have. But the fact that it was the BB with the retard minimum bet, mini-raise just felt like it had to be some monster. As stated there is no way I can fold on the flop so I thought I would call and hopefully the turn card and action would make my decision easier. It didn't. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[TimeToAct]

As played. Check/Fold the Turn. My Line is to push AI on the Flop too. If you get called u still got Redraws. So when its a cooler, its a cooler like mephisto said.

Its NL50, cant you see retards slowplaying a big Pair like AA or KK ?

[shoxbb6]

Seriously? You have no reads are new to the table, but you've somehow managed to decide that he only ever has jq, when he can just as easily play T9,JT,J9,etc like this?
Also, turn is a ridiculously easy call, you're getting ~2.7:1 from the pot alone, and factoring in implied odds makes this an easy call.
Personally, I'd get in on the flop, if not, then the turn.

[Peter Harris]

you think villain will continue to bet a one card straight draw on the turn rather than check behind?

[shoxbb6]

I've seen many villains bet the turn again w/ plenty of pair + oesd type hands, usually with a weak bet like he did on the turn.

[Heine]

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen many villains bet the turn again w/ plenty of pair + oesd type hands, usually with a weak bet like he did on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

So is calling down a blank river a good idea? Most value, least lost type thing? I think thats what I would do, but I'm not sure if thats right.