50 NL: Flop decision

[derosnec]

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min-3bet.

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I've seen you recommend minraising a couple times and it's something I never do. Maybe I'm missing spots where it could be profitable? Why would you recommend min 3betting over pushing here?

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one reason is so he will push. we don't want FE here. even if he just calls he's making a big mistake because the min-3bet is pretty large here and he can't get away from it on the turn (which will miss him what 80% of the time if he's drawing?). but most times he will push over our reraise on the flop. if he folds, he was folding anyway to a push.

[Bonesy]

I like the push. Villain's line is pretty strong so he may really like his hand. The board is wet enough that various combo draws are in his range as well. Further, if a spade hits the turn, he may shut down if behind or give hero a tricky decision. Given hero's early image, a push is the right way to go.

[infinite_loop]

This seems to me to be a really easy shove. With your image, it seems even more obvious.

[relativity_x]

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Why push this flop? We've the 2nd nuts. Why give Villain a chance to get away?
What are people putting Villain on? And what will he put us on if we push?
A king seems his most likely hand and any king will likely fold to a push. If he's got OESD or flush draw he can fold to a push too.
If he's got some combo, pair + flush/straight draw he'll likely shove that on the turn anyway.
If he's aggro, let him hang himself on the turn.

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I agree with everything gigglegirl has mentioned here. I think a push is bad for a few reasons. I kill my action if he only has kq kinda hand, and I'd like to see what the turn brings before I commit my stack. I also have position and believe he'll stick it on the turn with almost any card giving his aggression because my call underrepresents my hand.

his range: kqs,kjs,k9s,qjs,q9s,qjo,55,jj. The following hands are possible, but aren't very likey due to his action: aks,aqs,ajs,qq. I'd think most villains with his stats would 3bet aks,qq preflop, and I doubt he cr ajs/aqs on this flop.

turn(35.5): J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="brown">SB bets 36</font>, <font color="brown">hero pushes all-in</font>, SB calls

river(108.4): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB shows k [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[ALPHA TRI]

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We've got a laggy image and a very drawy flop. He calls with a lot of draws and Kx here pretty often I think. This is the kind of flop we want to play hard.

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Yep spade and straight draw shove it in!!!!!!

[Nogatsira]

I think letting him hang himself on this hand is indeed a good option but I don't see anything wrong with pushing either if he saw your push on the OESD.

[relativity_x]

well the OESD push wasn't that wild imo. It was just a blind v btn battle.

I opened raised from the btn with jqs. villain repopped me I flat called in position. The pot was around $12 on the flop with a KT2 rainbow with effective stacks of ~44, hero leads for 10. I don't buy it because that's a fairly dry board, so I push.

[cooker3]

On such a draw heavy board and with your image, it is a really easy push.
If he has a King, an ace or spade on the turn kills your action as well.

[You're No Daisy]

You have the perfect hand here in my opinion. You hit a set against an aggressive laggy villain are most likely against a hand like AK, KQ-KT or a flush draw. His AF is 2.5 which is pretty aggressive. Your job now is to get the rest of villain's stack.

I'm pushing here 100% of the time and stacking the lagtard. If villain has KK then so be it. When you got caught pushing with an OESD, it set you up beautifully for this hand.

Here are the numbers against a spade draw:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2846731
pokenum -h th tc - as qs -- kh ts 5s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts 5s Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Th 664 67.07 326 32.93 0 0.00 0.671
As Qs 326 32.93 664 67.07 0 0.00 0.329

Here are the numbers against AK:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2846734
pokenum -h th tc - ad kc -- kh ts 5s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts 5s Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Th 958 96.77 32 3.23 0 0.00 0.968
Kc Ad 32 3.23 958 96.77 0 0.00 0.032

Worst case scenario for you is that villain has Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for and OESD+Flush draw, but I'm still pushing:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2846737
pokenum -h th tc - qs js -- kh ts 5s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts 5s Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Th 591 59.70 399 40.30 0 0.00 0.597
Qs Js 399 40.30 591 59.70 0 0.00 0.403

AC