100: is this river as good as it looks?

BT2 · #1 07-10-2007, 08:30 PM

villain is 17/12/4 after 2k hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($110.60)
Button ($197.25)
SB ($101.15)
BB ($243.25)
UTG ($99.65)
MP1 ($62.15)
Hero ($139.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $7, Button calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $18, Button calls $18.

River: ($59.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ???

if he has KQ or something then a check/raise would be perfect, but would he have called turn with KQ?

if he has some ace then checking would lose value, and a value bet is in order.

what about something else, how often does he have AK or hit a better set on flop?

i was confused so i checked.

checks, Button bets $40, Hero ???

push or call?

Robin Donks · #2 07-10-2007, 08:36 PM

Easy easy push. I'd instashove river here. Villain has a flush here very often and goes broke.17/12/4 type of players reraise AK/KK/AA like always so chances of him having that are low. KQ might fold but though

jhill3535 · #3 07-10-2007, 08:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Easy easy push. Villain has a flush here very often and goes broke.17/12/4 type of players reraise AK/KK/AA like always so chances of him having that are low.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does Villian EVER have a flush here. He called the flop bet with no pair and a backdoor flush draw?

Robin Donks · #4 07-10-2007, 08:42 PM

Ok, maybe not.What other hands apart from KQ can villain have?

jhill3535 · #5 07-10-2007, 08:53 PM

AK isn't that likely IMO, at least it should be discounted as the standard line for villian is probably to 3-bet AK on the button, and occassional call is reasonable as well.

66 is very reasonable.

KQ is reasonable, but if I was going to play KQ here, I would usually do it with a 3-bet. I think KJ is also maybe reasonable.

The hand that villian's line looks the best for is 66 or AK. It confuses me as well, so I guess Check call looks good for the river to me too. I don't see him calling a push with less than a full house and we have the worst one possible and we are relatively still pretty deep, about 110bb before calling the 40bb, with 70ish left.

Is it possible that Villian floated A high on the flop?

He could have QQ-TT and floating, and these hands fall in the catagory "complete air"

BT2 · #6 07-11-2007, 12:13 AM

2 people? BUMP!

RobAtticus · #7 07-11-2007, 12:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Is it possible that Villian floated A high on the flop?

He could have QQ-TT and floating, and these hands fall in the catagory "complete air"

[/ QUOTE ]

I think QQ-TT is unlikely after the turn. I mean, even if he's calling the flop thinking he's probably still best, the Ace has got to scare him. He'd probably check behind the river with QQ-TT. AQ could be floating here I suppose. I think KQ is the most likely, but AK is also quite likely.

I think a call is better than a push here.

Setzy · #8 07-11-2007, 12:32 AM

Villain pretty much never has 66 here because he would raise the turn. AK is MORE likely than not, but villain could also have run into a backdoor flush (57s) or just have a strong trips hand (KQ, KJ) and puts you on a lower pair. I wouldn't expect to get called here on the check-raise unless villain has a boat, and if villain has any boat, you're beat.

Capitan23 · #9 07-11-2007, 12:34 AM

I push here. If he has a king, which is likely, you're missing out on too much money by just calling.

Poker monkey · #10 07-11-2007, 01:58 AM

This is tricky. I think check-raisning all-in on the river is terrible and its only purpose would be as a bluff if you think he could lay down 66. KQ suited is possible hand for him but I don't feel it's that likely. I think you're either up against nothing or a hand that has you crushed a lot of the time. If this is the case, the check-call line seems best since you'll often pick up a bet from missed draws, and save money if you're behind. As played it's a bit of a crying call, but you'll be ahead a decent amount of the time.