OK seriously am I average, bad, or slightly ahead of curve?

[MM_red33]

Ive been playing poker seriously since Feb 07. I played online at NL50 for a bit doing about 3BBPT/100 or whatever tht stat is but i mainly focus on live play since I have a cardroom 10 mins away.

I play 1/2 live with 3/5 here and there. Since march I have had 3 winning monts of 700,800, and 100 and 1 month i lost 1500 (this was april, so the 2nd month). So far in July im up 200. I made 1000 last weekend then proceeded to drop 600 the past few days. From this alone is this standard variance? Do i ahve hope is basically what Im asking.

I told myslef that If i dont have 3 winning months in a row then Im going to stop playing poker seriously.

Thanks in advance.

[davebwell]

Moa Tse Tung was asked what he thought about the French revolution about 100+ years after the fact and he responded with something like It's too soon to tell.

I think the same applies to your question about how good you are. I would say you probably suck. Not to mean or based on anything you actually stated but because nearly everyone sucks after only 5.5 months.

The best comparison I can make is what my sensei told me when I earned my green belt in judo 15 years ago. You know just enough to be a danger to yourself and everyone else around you and not enough to know that you are a danger to yourself or everyone else.

or any even truer cliche: "It takes minutes to learn and years to master."

Judging by your wins you play a few times a month and are going through normal variance but there just isn't a sufficient sample of hands to tell if you are a winning player. If you figure 40 hands an hour for 160 hrs a month (full-time which I don't get the impression you are) you'd have a little over 30K hands played which would be about the minimum you'd need to calculate your winrate with any certainty.

I think a better question for you to ask yourself is do you enjoy playing enough that it is worth continuing to plug away and learn given the neglible wins/losses you receive/suffer.

[MM_red33]

I do enjoy playing, alot actually but I dont want to be a lifetime losing player. Im also not trying to confuse myself and think tht i am good.

thanks for the honesty.

[uDevil]

Looks like you're ahead both online and live. I don't know how many hands you've played (or your standard deviation) so I don't know how much confidence you can have in your winrate. However, you should realize that breaking even (in the long run) is WAY above average.