NL25 KK facing a push on flop

[uppner]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $25.20
UTG+1: $23
MP1: $20.25
CO: $54.50
Button: $29.20
SB: $25.70
BB: $10.45

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($3.4, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises all-in $19.4</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $44.2

No reads, but in my experience people will often slowplay a better hand here. I think this is a bluff, a combo draw or something else often enough for a call.

[Steelerman]

This is fine IMO but you have to know you'll see 77 or 33 here ALOT. Without a read that he's a monster donk this is a bluff or draw almost never from MP1 at NL25.

[Jay.Yang]

MP1 is hardly ever on a draw or a bluff here, not after both guy in front him show aggression already. (unless, of course he's a donk)

So w/o a read of MP1 is a donk, I fold my one pair hand.

[roll]

I think MP1's range definitely includes:
33, 77
J9, JT, JQ, JA ([img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])
45, 56, 46, 89, 8T, 9T ([img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])

You have to call ~12 to win ~30, so you're getting about 2.5:1 odds and your equity against this range is about 40%
so I'd call.

Note that if you didn't have Kd here you're equity is down to about 35%.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

15,840 games 0.485 secs 32,659 games/sec

Board: 3d 7d Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.773% 39.77% 00.00% 6300 0.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 60.227% 60.23% 00.00% 9540 0.00 { 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, 3c3h, 3c3s, 3h3s, AdJd, QdJd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d }

[jhill3535]

[ QUOTE ]
I think MP1's range definitely includes:
33, 77
J9, JT, JQ, JA ([img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])
45, 56, 46, 89, 8T, 9T ([img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])

You have to call ~12 to win ~30, so you're getting about 2.5:1 odds and your equity against this range is about 40%
so I'd call.

Note that if you didn't have Kd here you're equity is down to about 35%.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

15,840 games 0.485 secs 32,659 games/sec

Board: 3d 7d Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.773% 39.77% 00.00% 6300 0.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 60.227% 60.23% 00.00% 9540 0.00 { 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, 3c3h, 3c3s, 3h3s, AdJd, QdJd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d }

[/ QUOTE ]

You are missing JJ from his range, which against a pretty standard UTG raise from a pretty tight player should be a call in MP.

If JJ is in the range, then I think that QQ should be in there as well, and it is possible that he tried to get tricky preflop with KK or AA.

[roll]

[ QUOTE ]
You are missing JJ from his range, which against a pretty standard UTG raise from a pretty tight player should be a call in MP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why on earth would you not 3bet JJ and QQ in any position against any player preflop?

Here it is anyway, with JJ and QQ added:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

24,750 games 0.015 secs 1,650,000 games/sec

Board: 3d 7d Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.099% 45.10% 00.00% 11162 0.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 54.901% 54.90% 00.00% 13588 0.00 { QQ, JcJd, JcJs, JdJs, 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, 3c3h, 3c3s, 3h3s, AdJd, QdJd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d }

Either way, the board is more draw heavy than previous posters admit, I think this is a fine call getting 2.5:1.