1st level WSOP ME w JJ

[uclabruinz]

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By the way, I had it backward. We are 54/46 FAVORITE on the turn against QQ+ with the two dead tens.

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7d
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.833% 45.83% 00.00% 231 0.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 54.167% 54.17% 00.00% 273 0.00 { JdJs }

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I think KK is most likely, and I think we are a pretty big dog to villain's real likely range, which isn't AK 45% of the time like you are assuming. But yeh, you have to call the turn once you call the flop. Your flush draw is often good even if villain has a higher set.

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Betgo, huh? My range did not even include the possibility of AK.

[registrar]

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Registrar, we have a flush draw on the turn that changes our equity pretty significantly.

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Thanks. I think this has to be a call. But I think the range is skewed in a way that makes it hard to stove. Tells might help, but I doubt he's shoving black aces and black AK there. I don't think he's minraise/three-betting QQ pf. I think most of his range is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Ax, KK and A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Kx.

The fact is that we have a set, we have outs, other outs that don't help us are dead almost half our stack is in a massive pot so, by the turn, the rest simply has to go in.

[uclabruinz]

The bottom line is that I don't think there is any way you can draw up a range where our hand is more then a 2.5 to 1 dog on the turn. And by the way, this the ME. Certain villains are MORE then capable of playing black aces this way and then going home to tell everyone how unlucky he was to have his aces cracked.

[Cornell Fiji]

2 things I neglected in my first post because I didn't they were even debatable:

1) AK does not take that weird pf line. He has QQ+.
2) the turn is a call

If we are going to consider folding it should be on the flop and not the turn. The only reason that we should consider folding the flop is if the villain in question is one who would put you on JJ+ and say 'oh [censored]' and play for pot control on this ultra scary board for his AA. If your villain is not one to put you on a hand then you are all in (and the best way to get all in is to smooth call the flop)

Once we call the flop we obv have to get it in on any non ace turn. The diamond is just gravy (esp because no one is getting off AdAx once the 3rd diamond hits so it means that even a reasonable players range makes this a call... and of course because it makes us so were not drawing to one out)

[registrar]

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1) AK does not take that weird pf line. He has QQ+.


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Why not? I think AK is more likely here than QQ FWIW. His pf line is non-standard but it seems somewhat reasonable. His line may have been minraise/call but hero's RR is so small he's kind of obliged to raise to get it heads up.

[MEJG2]

Perfect!

I actually know the guy in 2nd position, not the JJ player. My friend believes he played his A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] as it was AA or KK and that the guy w JJ made a terrible call (of course the river blanked out and was left with T600). I thought the JJ was a good call with the redraws and with the board, there is no way my friend can hold AK, AQ, or AJ suited in [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s. So as others as said his range is QQ+, A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Kx in my mind, and JJ has a clear pot odds call.

I hate the way he played his AK... Others Agree?

[Todd Terry]

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I hate the way he played his AK... Others Agree?

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Top pair top kicker is the stone cold nuts, gotta go with it! Seriously though, if you rereraise preflop with AK (or AA for that matter) and get two callers, and then the board comes KQJ, you should either immediately throw your hand in the muck or check and pray that the one or two of your opponents who have flopped a set idiotically check the flop and give you a free shot at a T on the turn.

That being the case, the 6K lead on the flop says he has KK or QQ, so I would fold JJ on the flop. And no, I would never fold JJ (or any other pair for that matter) to the 2K rereraise preflop, because you're getting huge implied odds to flop a set (you're in position, and the rereraiser is under an obligation to make a huge continuation bet prior to you acting postflop).

Would I be able to think this through at the table? I would hope so, but I kind of doubt it.

[curtains]

PF I'd probably just call.

[TCA]

I think this is actually a pretty easy call. I mean the flop is bad but imo AKJ is infinitely worse. Some player reads would be nice here, but I don't think that many players are putting in such a small r/r there with QQ (and probably are putting in 3rd raises with QQ very rarely). Also I agree that AK doesn't put that bet in very often either. We should really be discounting QQ and AK imo or at least weighting them as a much smaller percentage.

Also this is ME which means 2 things:
The players are very very bad.
There is this huge thing about players not wanting to go broke with KK preflop and running into AA. This makes me think that AA is probably at least slightly more likely than KK.

If we are up against KK, we have 10 outs.
Against AA they have 12 outs if Td not exposed. (or perhaps 2 if they are really awful).
The pot is giving us a huge overlay even with 1 card to come.

The diamond is actually quite important even though it appears to just average things out(if you are behind you at least have a live draw now and if you are ahead you probably aren't so far ahead now) it means you are never too far behind in this hand and should make you more inclined to call.

Some quick pokerstove shows:

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7s
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.405% 24.40% 00.00% 41 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 75.595% 75.60% 00.00% 127 0.00 { AdAh, KK }

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7d
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.310% 36.31% 00.00% 61 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 63.690% 63.69% 00.00% 107 0.00 { AdAh, KK }

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7s
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.966% 14.97% 00.00% 44 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 85.034% 85.03% 00.00% 250 0.00 { AdAh, KK-QQ }

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7d
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.952% 30.95% 00.00% 91 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 69.048% 69.05% 00.00% 203 0.00 { AdAh, KK-QQ }

The diamond changes this hand from a clear fold into a clear call (I found this quite surprising). I haven't even included the possibility he does this with no d aces which he could if he is very bad.

I think though that the flop decision is the most important and when you decide to call here you have to assume you are playing for stacks. Im sure some people with disagree here though.

Sorry this was just really quick so could be a ton of mistakes in here.

[shaundeeb]

This is an easy call due to having the Jd, we are never way behind unless he has Ad10x which is NEVER in his range. We are either ahead vs AdAx AsKx or have like 10 outs vs a higher set.