Can I really fold this at 200BB?? - Page 2

Poker Jon · #11 07-10-2007, 08:03 AM

In response to you all

We have five possible scenarios

1) He has Ax and we chop the pot
2) He has x6 and we win the pot
3) He has A9 and we lose the pot
4) He has 66 and we lose the pot
5) He is bluffing and we win the pot

Any maths guru's out there tell me what the % has to be for each one in order to make this call correct??

Cheers,

JOn

Asheh · #12 07-10-2007, 08:08 AM

103/9 = 0.08 = 1250/1

You need to be right 1 in 1250 times to be right.

Chance of getting A9 + Chance of Getting 66 < 1250/1

Somthing along those lines.

Ramana · #13 07-10-2007, 08:08 AM

grunch:

easy fold. our equity is 45/55 agasint all aces and 66. A9 and 66 beats us. This isn't even breakeven, so very easy fold.

HighSteaks · #14 07-10-2007, 08:10 AM

Why does he want to lead at the turn for starters, I don't see any reason for him to be changing gears there, if he thinks his hand has marginal value over yours (better kicker perhaps)I would more expect him to lead at you on the river and make you call him down commited to your rough ace, why would he think you are shutting down on the turn- from his point of view if you have an ace you are following up on the turn. Looks to me like he wanted to take over the betting.

Poker Jon · #15 07-10-2007, 08:28 AM

To be honest with you, I tanked this for the full time bank, switching between calling and folding the entire way. I decided that the way that 'I' played the hand, could easily look like a 6 or a 9 and he could be trying to bluff (in the loosest sense) me off the pot - and that was the only reason I called.

I was 90% certain that he had an ace and we would be splitting the pot, but I was fed up of his betting patterns and that he had already pushed me off 3 other pots by overbetting the river.

Anyway, he had A9 and took the pot. I sat down after though and came to the same conclusion as most of you that it really is an easy fold. I'm beating nothing 98% of the time here. If he really is that much of a donkey, then I'll get his chips in the end anyway.

Lesson learnt, and well plkayed him.

Cheers for feedback.

Jon

ama0330 · #16 07-10-2007, 08:55 AM

This is such an easy fold.

HBomb · #17 07-10-2007, 09:07 AM

That's pretty gross man, but just another typical star's cooler to say the least. I'm not really good with analyzing the math part of it at times when you are given a 15 second clock and multi tabling at the same time, but I just tend to consider how much I have invested in the pot and decide whether or not is it worth losing 200 BB's over. It would be a sick fold no doubt, but I think I would want a better spot to stack this guy if possible. Just think of it as folding KK on an A high flop when the guy leads into you. There are much better spots to stack off profitably when you have a rather smallish amount in the pot relative to your stack size.

paulnic · #18 07-10-2007, 09:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is such an easy fold.

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your beating nothing imo and your losing to a couple of hands. to win $5 i would let him have it, total -ev. in his eyes he's freerolling, you should have read the zeebo theorum!

HBomb · #19 07-10-2007, 09:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is such an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

your beating nothing imo and your losing to a couple of hands. to win $5 i would let him have it, total -ev. in his eyes he's freerolling, you should have read the zeebo theorum!

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol do you work for 2+2 by saying that he should've already have grunched about 200 hours worth of hands before hitting the $50NL tables? haha.

bennu · #20 07-10-2007, 10:21 AM

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PS I'm not looking for people telling me that I should be raising A5s preflop 3 handed - I know that - I was just trying to mix up my play here.

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If you really want good advice you should never disqualify part of a hand from analysis. If everyone knew where all their leaks were, they'd be easy to fix. Your worst leaks are going to be ones you don't even know exist or things you think you are doing fine, becasue you won't ever examine those parts of your game.

Open limping A5s 4 handed is a terrible way to mix up your game unless you're doing it to disguise your limp reraises with premium hands, and I doubt you're doing that.

Don't use mixing up your game as an excuse to do whatever you want. If you haven't even learned all the basics of solid poker yet, trying to put yourself into tougher situations is going to cost you a bunch of money.