Can I really fold this at 200BB??

Poker Jon · #1 07-10-2007, 07:07 AM

Hi All,

Opponent is a tricky player stats 28/22/3.6 and really seems to know what he is doing. He has overbet the pot on me before and pushed me off pots on the river. He didn't show any time. We have played about 200 hands together.

FWIW, I think as soon as he berts the turn, I am pretty sure he has an ace.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) internettexasholdem.com

SB ($69.80)
BB ($107.85)
UTG ($13.15)
Hero ($103.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1.

Turn: ($3.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero calls $3.

River: ($9.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $103.35 (All-In), Hero ??

What do you do here.

PS I'm not looking for people telling me that I should be raising A5s preflop 3 handed - I know that - I was just trying to mix up my play here.

Cheers,

Jon

shadypac · #2 07-10-2007, 07:15 AM

Actually not raising may have helped us here maybe im way off but I dont see him pot betting the turn with a hand as strong as A9-66 unless he can put you on an A and since you didnt raise preflop he cant assume that. Your flop bet could have been a quick attempt to pick up the pot. River is obviously really unusual but I think i make this call, sucks to be me if im wrong but i expect a chop. Maybe someone could argue that its to big a bet to call when you dont really "beat" anything here. Any reads on this dude?

Poker Jon · #3 07-10-2007, 07:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Actually not raising may have helped us here maybe im way off but I dont see him pot betting the turn with a hand as strong as A9-66 unless he can put you on an A and since you didnt raise preflop he cant assume that. Your flop bet could have been a quick attempt to pick up the pot. River is obviously really unusual but I think i make this call, sucks to be me if im wrong but i expect a chop. Maybe someone could argue that its to big a bet to call when you dont really "beat" anything here. Any reads on this dude?

[/ QUOTE ]

Other than those I gave you in the OP, no not really. He was sorta beating the table up a bit, had IMO was obviously a goodish player at this level.

Jon

knightmare_37 · #4 07-10-2007, 07:23 AM

If he's a smart/tricky player as you say, if he knew you were chopping would he push all in where you both lose because of the rake? I'd be suspicious that he might have you beat if he knows what he's doing but I probably call anyway.

shadypac · #5 07-10-2007, 07:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Other than those I gave you in the OP, no not really. He was sorta beating the table up a bit, had IMO was obviously a goodish player at this level.

Jon

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oops ya sorry I dont read, im curious to see what others have to say actually. By calling this you bascially lose most of what you put in, in rake anywayz am i right lol? I actually find this pretty interesting and might retract my previous statement about calling. You actually have to be winning quite often to make this profitable and I dont see what villain does this with that you actually beat.

Asheh · #6 07-10-2007, 07:32 AM

Lets see, its costing you $103 to win $9.

Given the amount of time he has quads here its probably a profitable call.

But risking that much to win so little seems silly at the chance.

He value bets every street.

Out of interest, did you call?

LegendLength · #7 07-10-2007, 07:33 AM

Raising the turn to $9 would have helped because he would not be as inclined to bluff the river knowing that you have at least an ace.

I'd still fold to the 10x pot sized bet on the river in fear of quads.

knightmare_37 · #8 07-10-2007, 07:49 AM

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But risking that much to win so little seems silly at the chance.

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I'm not sure if he's actually winning anything. If there was no rake the small blind of 25 cents would be chopped but the rake would surely be more than that. If you don't call you lose the $4.50, if you call and lose you lose your stack.

HighSteaks · #9 07-10-2007, 07:52 AM

I'd let it go, no question.

Poker Jon · #10 07-10-2007, 08:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd let it go, no question.

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Please explain your reasoning if this is your thought.

Jon