Greater EV with passive play and flopped set?

[GoodOL]

BB: 40/10/.8 - 85 hands

3/6 Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red">BB bets</font>, Hero calls

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red">BB bets</font>, Hero calls

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="red">BB bets</font>, Hero calls

I think the standard line here is to either raise the flop (or perhaps wait for the turn). However, might just calling both streets be better?

First, this only applies to specific opponents. I’ve made the following assumptions:
1.) He is relatively passive (i.e. won’t spew with top pair, draw, etc.). He will slow down to a flop raise and fold river with busted flush draw
2.) He has some kind of hand
3.) He will bet turn if flop is not raised (because of 2)
4.) He will bluff river with a busted flush draw if turn is not raised (only shot at winning pot)
These might seem like too precise assumptions, but I think there are enough players out there that play this way to make this analysis valid.

OK, back to the hand. With his flop bet, I put opponent on any two suited cards (his actual hand leads me to this conclusion), top pair, middle pair, bottom pair, or 99…a total of 262 hands. Of these hands, 21% are flush draws, 46% are top pair, 21% are mid pair, 5.5% are bottom pair, 5.5% are two pair, and 1% is a set (I’ve excluded TT+ assuming he would have three bet these preflop.

If he has a flush draw, there are 7 scenarios for the remainder of the hand.
1.) Turn blank, river non club
2.) Turn pair, river non club
3.) Turn club, river non pair
4.) Turn blank, river club/non pair
5.) Turn blank, river club/pair
6.) Turn club, river pair
7.) Turn pair, river club

Let’s look at two lines:
1.) Raise flop, bet turn, call/raise river
2.) Call flop, call turn, call/raise river
I calculate about 0.5 BBs more for line 2 (I used his actual hand, 9c2c, for this analysis; results will be slightly different for other flush draws; also, math/hands are not exact). Now, this only applies to the 21% of the time he has a flush draw, which we cannot know. The rest of the time, we still probably gain by waiting to the river to raise. I didn't do the math...but a flop raise and two bets is 3BBs....flop and turn call, river raise is 3.5BBs. This 0.5 BB will be gained about 70% of the time; 30% of time we would lose 0.5 BB, when we fail to raise when flush comes, but he has a hand like top pair. Also, if he has a weak hand, he might check and call river, but fold to a flop raise/turn bet (2.5 BB vs 1 BB).

An added benefit to playing some hands this way, is that observant players will give your flop calls more respect…perhaps allowing you to get free cards, get to showdowns cheaper, steal turns, etc…with just a flop call.

[yourface]

[yourface]

seriously just raise the flop. you will win more this way trust me

[Oink]

This is the worst hand ever.

RAISE!

[jba]

dude you are way overthinking this. what about when he has a big hand and you put in 5+ bets before showdown? is that in your equations?

honestly if I have 9x here and I see you take this line I am laughing my ass off, not trying to be mean but this is terrible.

[jstill]

i like call flop raise blank turn, but if flush hits wait and raise a non 4 flush (or 9c board pairing) river its a good way to combat donkers who often do it with air as steals

if i thought villain often took this line with TP or better and would bet 3bet TPGK id raise the flop call the 3bet and raise the turn probably capping a blank turn if hed almost always 3bet 99 or KK pre here from what id seen (ie id never seen him not 3bet a standard 3bet hand in this spot).

edit: jbas point about when he wants to put in more bets with a strongish hand is the main reason not to slowplay or stay passive like this

[NinaWilliams]

I think this guy is going into call down mode after you raise the flop, so waiting for the turn seems best. Also lol @ this hand.

[BigBadBabar]

wow, this makes babar cry

[GoodOL]

What big hand does he have? This guy is very passive and will just call down with top pair...waiting to the river to raise will get more. I didn't raise the river, because I was all but certain that he had a flush (the guy's W$atSD was over 70%...yeah, I know, a small sample)

He will have two pair only about 5% of the time....15% of the time he sucks out (waiting to river to raise still gets more).

The only other big hand is 99 (which case I'm crushed)....what others are there?

Guys...think outside the box for a change. My reasoning is sound. I happened to have lost as little as possible, while not sacrificing any value.

[yourface]

somehow over 85 hands (aggression factor not near converged btw, and it's not even THAT low considering his vpip) you've got this guy totally figured out?

I think not

these guys will constantly surprise you with their play.

oh and how did I know that you lost here before you told me? because I saw a page of reasoning for never raising with a set. tough break but come on, if you're trying to tell me you're going to make more money here by never raising you're just wrong