$60: AQ bubble squeeze - Page 2

PokahPokah · #11 07-07-2007, 04:53 AM

i dont see how u can muck this. soooo many times he will turn over a mid-low pp (to which its a flip which isnt bad as were getting short) or a lower ace that we have crushed. how much longer can we wait for aces ! chances are we wont see a better hand to get it all in with. i dont see a fold in here. u say that ur not worried by the calling player so i cant see how u can fold. utg will be getting nearly 3-1 to call so i cant see us having any fe.
once u push and presuming utg calls , sb cannot really call and be ahead of anyones range as he almost certainly hasnt got AA KK QQ AK as he more than likly would have 3 bet utg. i think you have the best hand. nice shove.

AMT · #12 07-07-2007, 04:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i dont see how u can muck this. soooo many times he will turn over a mid-low pp (to which its a flip which isnt bad as were getting short) or a lower ace that we have crushed. how much longer can we wait for aces ! chances are we wont see a better hand to get it all in with. i dont see a fold in here. u say that ur not worried by the calling player so i cant see how u can fold. utg will be getting nearly 3-1 to call so i cant see us having any fe.
once u push and presuming utg calls , sb cannot really call and be ahead of anyones range as he almost certainly hasnt got AA KK QQ AK as he more than likly would have 3 bet utg. i think you have the best hand. nice shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

though i agree this is a reasonable shove, FE is quite important here. because you likely have little if any, it is important in weighting UTGs range here, which will often make it close. its not often a terribly favorable situation when you know youre going to be coinflipping on the bubble of a STT, as this puts our entire tournament equity on a 50/50 proposition. in this particular situation it is likely youre far enough ahead of a range with nice overlay to get it all in, but in this bubble spot vs certain opponents this really isnt necessarily the place to do it. though we agree in the line i just wanted to lay out how this is not so cut and dry given the dynamic of sng bubble play with many UTG opening ranges here with these stacks.

im also a station so i hate folding a lot of stuff [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

darinvg · #13 07-09-2007, 08:31 AM

I'll bump this. People seem to disagree a bit here.

Roland32 · #14 07-09-2007, 10:13 AM

Lets assume that there is no FE, I think you can pokerstove this and still get a positive result. I do not think that the ranges are as tight as those suggesting fold think that they are.

Pudge714 · #15 07-09-2007, 10:31 AM

I agree with DDBeast here. You won't get this HU that often and there is a lot of value in letting these guys clash.

wobbegong · #16 07-09-2007, 05:17 PM

Assuming a 3 way allin, putting UTG range at 9.8%, flat caller at 6.5%, your equity is 29.8%.

I think this is a fold for reasons mentioned above.

Shillx · #17 07-09-2007, 06:37 PM

It's close to being -EV against all ranges if you assume they just chop it up when you fold and both call when you push. If they both call it figures to get checked down and you need almost 45% equity in that case. I just don't see either one folding unless UTG shoves in and even then you figure to be a big dog (and will making pushing -EV). It seems unlikely that someone will go broke if you fold but you never know so you have to add a few extra % to account for that possibility. I might make this move with AKs and I'd do it with JJ though I wouldn't be too happy about it.

I'd muck TT and AK