8 small questions about 1 big hand (Stars $3 MTT)

Patrick Duffy · #1 03-03-2006, 03:56 AM

Here's the situation...

Relatively deep in a PS MTT. 2237 entrants, probably about 50 remaining I think. It's villain's 4th hand at the table, so no reads just yet. I have been showing down a few steals with AQ, but he has not seen them.

Blinds are 1500/3000, ante 150. I am BB with 56452 chips. Villain is UTG with 97840 chips.

I am dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain min-raises UTG to 6000. It folds to me.

Question #1: What to do here?

Anyways, I decide to see what he's all about, and I hate it when people min-raise my BB. I'm pretty much putting him on a wide range. Even though he is min-raising UTG, which normally is something to be cautious with, I don't automatically put him on AA or KK. I'm thinking more along the lines of 77 or greater, KT or greater. The reason for this is that its a $3 tournament, so I can't give all that much credit to these players. Even in the weekly $million, you see some pretty awful plays. I'm hoping that the board is a mess because I'm expecting a continuation bet that I can exploit. I roll the dice and the flop comes:

7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Questions #2 and #3: Is this the mess I wanted? Check or bet?

I decide that I have enough chips to raise him if he bets, and I have pretty much made up my mind at this point to represent at least top pair. I would be more worried if he checked, because players in his position tend to get slow-play-itis.

Villain bets 6000.

To me, this is screaming continuation. He is uncomfortable putting in a real bet, but he wants me to see a lot of chips out there so I get nervous and fold. Either that, or he does have a huge hand and he is trying to juice the pot.

Question #4: Only one way to find out, right?

I think that if I call, its showing more weakness than he has showed by betting it. It basically forces me to check/fold the turn unless another 2 comes. I'm not exactly dying to fold this hand. It's a big pot at this point, and I'd like to get my stack ready for the push to the final table. I realize that if I fold at this point, I still have plenty of chips, and I've only really lost 3000 voluntarily. However, I think that I need to find out exactly where I'm at with the villain. He's just moved to this table and he must be trying the same thing I am; to accumulate chips for the endgame. I decide to raise it to 15000.

Question #5: How bad is this raise?

I think that at this point, the villain is either going all in or folding. If he goes all in, I think I can safely get away from this hand and learn my lesson. I'm pretty sure he pushes here with any of the range that I put him on that beats me, and folds any of the hands I had him on that I'm ahead of. On that note...villain calls.

Question #6: What does this mean?

Could he just not want to look too weak? Perhaps he doesn't want to let us see that he raises PF and C-bets with nothing. Maybe he's hoping I'll check the turn and fold when he tosses another 6000 into the pot. Then again, maybe he's got TT-AA and wants me to bet the turn so he can shove it in then. I'm pretty baffled at this point. Anyways, the turn comes 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I have not improved my hand at all, and I'm first to act.

Question #7: Check or bet, and how much?

I hate folding hands and wishing I knew what the other guy held. Also, at this point in the tournament, I'm willing to go broke, as I still have plenty of time until the money gets serious, and I'll need to pick up chips to even hope to get that far. And so, after semi-careful consideration, I lead out with 15000.

Question #8: Have I even been paying attention to this hand?

I know that after this bet, he's either going to fold and cut his losses or move in. Either way, I find out exactly where I stand. If he moves in, I think I may be pot committed for a call, although I'm most likely dominated pretty hard. Otherwise, I can breathe a sigh of relief and know that I probably sucked out on his AK-AQ. How do you feel about the hand up to this point?

slik · #2 03-03-2006, 05:29 AM

q1: fold preflop

q2: i think so. I'd be surprised if he had a pair unless it was a PP, AT, or some middle suited connector he decided to play. of course, a set is also not out of the realm of possibility.

q3: betting out might be the best option. it gives you a chance to take down the pot right there without it getting too big. if you go for a checkraise, the size of the pot might convince him to call with cards as weak as overcards.

q4: given that you went for the c/r i might raise somewhat of a higher, to convince him to fold his overcards, if that's is what he has in fact.

q5: of course, this would commit a lot of chips which is why i prefer betting out.

q6: after his call, his mostly likely holdings are a set, a weak pair, or overcards.

q7: at this point you really need to maintain initiative and bet out. 1/2 to 2/3 pot should be enough.

q8: i think your analysis is excellent. but in general i hate risking a lot of chips with marginal holdings against unknown players. fold preflop next time, and avoid this mess. your ace may be dominated preflop, in which case you'll lose some chips postflop. and if it is not dominated, you'll get minimal action if you hit. if you had known more about the opponent, it might be worthwhile to call to outplay him postflop, but against an unknown this is a less than trivial task out of position.

seke2 · #3 03-03-2006, 10:41 AM

I'd like to hear some thoughts about this one. I reviewed the OP's hand history for this entire tournament, and this hand stuck out to me as a really dangerous/interesting play, and I suggested he post this up here.

Here's the hand converted:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t56452)
UTG (t97840)
UTG+1 (t39344)
MP1 (t27405)
MP2 (t56164)
MP3 (t53051)
CO (t167744)
Button (t19940)
SB (t17640)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t6000, 7 folds, Hero calls t3000.

Flop: (t10200) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t6000, Hero raises to t15000, UTG calls t9000.

Turn: (t40200) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t15000, UTG folds.

Final Pot: t55200

Results in white below: 
No showdown. Hero wins t55200.

NinjaMan · #4 03-03-2006, 10:53 AM

Villian seems to have had nothing on the flop, because the 5s shouldn't scare him away from making a call getting greater than 3:1 on his money. I fold the preflop and raise more on the flop (barely more than a minraise). You made a nice stab on the turn, but I think villian was following through on a KJ type hand that he didn't want to look weak with.

betgo · #5 03-03-2006, 11:48 AM

I would fold preflop. A2o is well ahead of a random hand, but what do you do with it? It is hard to play strongly if an ace or two hits. I would probably call with A2 sooted, which is a lot stronger.

Villain probably has AA-QQ or some limping or marginal raising hand. Anyway he has a much better hand than A2o, even if he has a suited connector or suited broadway cards that are technically behind A2o.

You are getting good odds to call, so I would call with a lot of hands, but not A2o.

I don't usually have the nerve to play the way you did on the flop and turn. I usually play aggressively with a strong hand or a bluff, but not with bottom pair. Your play might be good though.

I might just call him down and hope deuces are good. If he is behind, he has outs to improve, but you also have outs to improve.

rockin · #6 03-03-2006, 12:02 PM

1)edited, M of less than 10, not BB<10, just fold preflop.
2)not quite, T is the worst card because it plays to a lot of hands, but all in all, if you think he is playing an unpaired hand, this flop is ideal for you ($3 MTT being a major consideration here)
3)why didnt you lead this flop (you were first to act but make no mention of your check)
4)Once you check this hand and he leads out, if your going to raise you need to make it about 3-4 times his bet, which is pretty much committing you to the pot.
5)horrible raise.
6)what does this mean? he has proper odds to call this raise EASILY.
7)I hope to check it down.
8)very badly played IMO on every street.

edited because i'm an idiot: my whole analysis was based on you having less than 10xbb when actually you have M<10. So, i kind of rush fixed my post. Sorry.

seke2 · #7 03-03-2006, 12:23 PM

Here was the analysis I sent to Patrick Duffy about this one:

I really don't like this. First off, this guy can knock you out. Calling a UTG raise with A2o is just a bad idea. On the flop, I guess you think he's on some whiffed overcards. At least, you're betting your ass on it by betting your 2's really hard. Once you raise the flop, I think you are basically obligated to fire again on the turn, and it's good that he folded. Personally, I'd just have folded this preflop. A2o is an impossible hand to play confidently unless the flop is 345r or something.

NinjaMan · #8 03-03-2006, 04:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably call with A2 sooted, which is a lot stronger.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 54.9286 % 52.95% 01.98% { A2o }
Hand 2: 45.0714 % 43.09% 01.98% { random }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.3789 % 55.51% 01.87% { A2s }
Hand 2: 42.6211 % 40.75% 01.87% { random }

O RLY?

betgo · #9 03-03-2006, 04:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would probably call with A2 sooted, which is a lot stronger.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 54.9286 % 52.95% 01.98% { A2o }
Hand 2: 45.0714 % 43.09% 01.98% { random }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.3789 % 55.51% 01.87% { A2s }
Hand 2: 42.6211 % 40.75% 01.87% { random }

O RLY?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you go by win percentages A2o is a pretty strong hand to call a raise. That doesn't mean much as far as play is concerned.

With A2s, you have more potential to make a big hand. You can make a nut flush, which is particularly valuable if the other guy makes a nonnut flush. Also you can make a strong draw. If you have a flush draw, you always have top pair or an overcard, and you often have a gutshot.

A2s isn't a great hand, but if I am getting 4-1 pot odds to call is the BB, I will probably call with it. There is some possibility of making some other big hand with a lucky flop or stealing the pot.

Any hand is a lot stronger if it is suited, particularly if you have an ace, and particularly with deeper money. I don't care about whether the win percentage only goes up a bit. A flush is a big hand and it can often win a big pot.