Dark All In--What Do You Call With?

[Gonso]

You should worry about being properly rolled prior to playing. Assuming you are:

Any hand with about 50% or greater equity versus a random hand (See pokerstove) is at least mathematically correct to call. Hands like Q5o, J8o, and 98s would all fit this bill.

That said, I don't think these tiny edges are really worth the variance for 100bb stacks. I would easily take this as a 55-45 favorite though and probably slightly less, so Ax and (most) Kx hands are calling. Any pair 33 or better also, and a lot of higher connecting cards, including a lot of one- and two-gappers. (Even hands like Q9s are decent against a random range HU).

[Gonso]

I missed OP’s specific question, sorry. You wanted an exact figure.

You’re on the BB so you only have to call $1980. Which means you’re being offered 2030/1980 – which means to need to have 49.3766 percent equity vs a random hand to break even. It looks like J7o gives you ~49.65 equity, so that is the hand that gives you the lowest positive profitability margin. I didn’t run them all, so maybe another hand could be lower. I checked the low offsuit queens and some suited connectors.

You can figure out your bankroll requirements though. These types of calls or folds will affect your standard deviation, and combined with your winrate an acceptable RoR you can jam them into a calculator, then from there figure out where your drop down point is, etc.

This is a goofy scenario, but you will have late tourney situations where a guy pushes blind once in a while. It helps to have a rough idea of the equity of a few hands vs random holdings. I know them for a few tricky ones like K9o, A8, QTs, and a few more, and I use them as rough guidelines.

[vixticator]

Calling blind is +EV right?

[finegrinder]

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Calling blind is +EV right?

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Yes it is, because of the dead money (blinds).

[bxb]

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Calling blind is +EV right?

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Yes it is, because of the dead money (blinds).

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It is +EV, but it does not maximize your EV.

[EGO]

You are trying to win 2030 by putting in 1980.

You'll need a hand that wins at least 49.4% of the time to make a profit.

2030(.494)-1980(.506) = +0.94

Ax, Kx, Q5o+, Qxs+, J7o+, J5s+, T7o+, T7s+, 98s+, AA-22.

Each of these hands individually is +EV to call an all-in with, but with this range you'll be about a 57.5% favorite. This range encompasses 52.3% of all possible hands.

[Mook]

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Assuming that everyone looked first before folding would improve your EV as they presumably folded inferior hands.

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Unfortunately for our theoretical hero, you've got that backwards. Their throwing away inferior hands means Villain is more likely, not less, to have a good hand. (The fact that everyone else has folded doesn't affect what our hero is holding, of course - even though we're making these calculations without knowing exactly what that is.)

In the worst-case scenario, let's say your opponents would each have called with any +EV hand and they all folded. That tells you, among other things, that none of your opponents held an ace or king (any hand containing either of these two cards is +EV vs. a random hand) and thus Villain is far more likely to hold one than he would be if you were heads-up to start.

I haven't run the numbers (it would take a while) but I'd want something with at least 60% equity vs. an otherwise "random" hand, and probably more, before I considered calling in this situation.

Mook

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

What has a positive expectation? Any A, any K, any pair, Q8+.

What would I call with? AA, KK.

[Gonso]

For a second I though you might have been serious, lol. Good lvl

I'd instacall with any reasonable hand easy, AT+, any pair like 66 and up, any broadway hand. I'd have to think about some of the more marginal edges a little longer though, but I'd still have to call the A4 type hands.

I'm never passing up a 55/45 spot in a cash game intentionally, I don't care if it's for an entire buy-in or not.

[ApeAttack]

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22+, Any Ace, Any King. Queens down to Q7.

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Only acceptable answer.