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#1
07-08-2007, 01:20 AM
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JJ turn again
MP: 14/10/3 - 376 hands
OTB: unknown yah or nah? PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP calls, Button calls. Flop: (12.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls. Turn: (9.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Button calls, Hero folds. 
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#3
07-08-2007, 01:41 AM
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Re: JJ turn again
so i guess the fold is based on the fact that button threebet pf and decided to start coldcalling postflop - indicacting a bigger heart, correct? Button is repping a heart draw with his line, but because he's unknown he could also have his heels dug in with AQ or KQ no heart, TT with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or he could conceivably convince himself that this is a good line with AxT[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
mp's got nittish stats, but could still have a Q with a non-heart kicker here. Its also more correct for him to play aggressively there with a wide range of Qs, heart draws, and overpairs because of the pot size. If the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is in play from either villain then you're pretty dead there, and as it is you're probably rooting for a river heart that doesnt pair the board (the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). With that said, if you folded a live draw vs a combination of non-hearted QQ, AA, AQ, or KK, under pps with a heart, and some random unnown trash hand element that button may have then you've made a HUGE error. This is especially true if you're specifically up against a combination of KK AxT[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] underpairs with a heart, and AQ, because your two Jacks are ahead sometimes and and have trip outs as well. I guess the sum of all of that is that we have to be drawing dead to make the fold, and given that button is unknown we probably can't make that assumption and therefore should call, spike a heart and drag the pot.
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#4
07-08-2007, 12:59 PM
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Re: JJ turn again
I absolutely think we should call turn since the pot is big and we close the action. If we don't hit a heart or jack on river we fold there instead. I can't see who we can be sure enough that we're drawing dead to fold for 1BB on turn...
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#5
07-08-2007, 03:16 PM
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Re: JJ turn again
[ QUOTE ]
I absolutely think we should call turn since the pot is big and we close the action. If we don't hit a heart or jack on river we fold there instead. I can't see who we can be sure enough that we're drawing dead to fold for 1BB on turn... [/ QUOTE ] MP raised preflop, raised flop, bet turn Button 3bet preflop, called flop raise, called turn bet I think the above is enough to conclude you are drawing dead most of the time.
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#6
07-08-2007, 03:19 PM
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Re: JJ turn again
Whichever way we go on the turn, we might be making a big Fundamental Theorum of Poker mistake. My guess is that we're drawing dead at least as often as we're drawing very live, so the fold seems okay to me. I'm okay with a call too -- although it will lead into an awkward river on those times when we're drawing dead and get there.
Occasionally we'll actually be ahead versus, like 8h8c and ThTc, but that won't be the case very often.
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#8
07-09-2007, 03:54 PM
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Re: JJ turn again
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I absolutely think we should call turn since the pot is big and we close the action. If we don't hit a heart or jack on river we fold there instead. I can't see who we can be sure enough that we're drawing dead to fold for 1BB on turn... [/ QUOTE ] MP raised preflop, raised flop, bet turn Button 3bet preflop, called flop raise, called turn bet I think the above is enough to conclude you are drawing dead most of the time. [/ QUOTE ] We don't have to draw live most of the time to call, look at the potsize.
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