#11
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The wagering requirements are generally in $ though, so you aren't giving up anything in terms of the house edge. [/ QUOTE ] What? [/ QUOTE ] If the playthrough is $10k, the house edge is the same whether I play one $10k hands or 10k $1 hands. It's just the variance that is different, surely? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. |
#12
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The wagering requirements are generally in $ though, so you aren't giving up anything in terms of the house edge. [/ QUOTE ] What? [/ QUOTE ] If the playthrough is $10k, the house edge is the same whether I play one $10k hands or 10k $1 hands. It's just the variance that is different, surely? [/ QUOTE ] Basically, yes. |
#13
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
I did quite a few last fall. I played in either $1 and $2 increments following the charts on the Wizard of Odds. I made a profit on about 90% of the bonuses offered that were dollar for dollar and cashable with playthroughs 10x or lesser.
I kept the records in a notebook and can name the casinos. |
#14
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The wagering requirements are generally in $ though, so you aren't giving up anything in terms of the house edge. [/ QUOTE ] What? [/ QUOTE ] If the playthrough is $10k, the house edge is the same whether I play one $10k hands or 10k $1 hands. It's just the variance that is different, surely? [/ QUOTE ] yes, but you're not going to have a 10k balance with a playthrough of 10k. |
#15
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The wagering requirements are generally in $ though, so you aren't giving up anything in terms of the house edge. [/ QUOTE ] What? [/ QUOTE ] If the playthrough is $10k, the house edge is the same whether I play one $10k hands or 10k $1 hands. It's just the variance that is different, surely? [/ QUOTE ] No. If your balance is say $400, $200+$200 bonus and you do $50 bets it only takes 8 bad bets to go broke. Worst case scenario and you'll only have the opportunity to wager $400 and you're bust. In the long term you'll be getting the same amount of bonus as someone who bets $1 but because of all the times you bust quickly you'll do far less total wagering. Example, if I wager $100,000 less dollars than you over my 'career' and the house edge is 1%, well there's an extra $1000 EV my way. |
#16
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
Let's take two extremes.
100% $100 bonus. 30x playthrough. 0.5 HA (a bit high for blackjack, but that doesn't matter for this example) Scenario 1: Bet low (say $1 per hand). 100-3000*0.005 = 85 Scenario 2: Try to double up then grind it out low. (-100 + 300-3000*0.005) / 2 = 92 |
#17
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
On bonuswhores before they shut down the casinos forum, this was known as "Galt's Epiphany" (named after a poster who coined this strategy).
By playing a cashable bonus more aggressively (larger bets), you can yield a higher EV. The difference can be miniscule or huge, depending on the bonus structure. |
#18
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The wagering requirements are generally in $ though, so you aren't giving up anything in terms of the house edge. [/ QUOTE ] What? [/ QUOTE ] If the playthrough is $10k, the house edge is the same whether I play one $10k hands or 10k $1 hands. It's just the variance that is different, surely? [/ QUOTE ] No. If your balance is say $400, $200+$200 bonus and you do $50 bets it only takes 8 bad bets to go broke. Worst case scenario and you'll only have the opportunity to wager $400 and you're bust. In the long term you'll be getting the same amount of bonus as someone who bets $1 but because of all the times you bust quickly you'll do far less total wagering. Example, if I wager $100,000 less dollars than you over my 'career' and the house edge is 1%, well there's an extra $1000 EV my way. [/ QUOTE ] Read his post. |
#19
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
Well, it doesn't work exactly like blackjack, but i wrote a program to generate random numbers between 0 and 1. anything over .5025 was a 'win'. Everything else was a loss. Here are the results for 10,000,000 bonuses. $200 BR and a $2500 WR.
bet size-----avr return 1/n-----187.5 1-------187.51 5-------187.82 10-----188.63 20-----189.98 25-----190.40 50-----192.06 100---193.84 200---195.01 |
#20
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
Well, it doesn't work exactly like blackjack, but i wrote a program to generate random numbers between 0 and 1. anything over .5025 was a 'win'. Everything else was a loss. Here are the results for 10,000,000 bonuses. $200 BR and a $2500 WR. bet size-----avr return 1/n-----187.5 1-------187.51 5-------187.82 10-----188.63 20-----189.98 25-----190.40 50-----192.06 100---193.84 200---195.01 [/ QUOTE ] This is right, higher risk of ruin means higher average return. |
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