Here's how terrible the Reds are.

[Neuge]

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It's not so much that. It's that Dunn's K rate is up and his walk rate is down. If he mantains his career BABIP and HR/FB% with his current K and BB rates, he's looking at a line of something like .220/.320/.485. That's not good for what amounts to a DH.

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But his BABIP and HR/FB are both up this year. Overall, his stats this year are almost identical to his carrer-best 2004 season, though his OBP and SLG are a bit down. But that's because his FB% is down a couple points from that season, which accounts for the slight dip in those numbers (along with his decreased walk rate for OBP). Narron regularly batting him 5th, 6th, and sometimes 7th allows pitchers to go after him much more.

[kyleb]

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The Reds have a ton of problems, but Narron was a major one. He's completely incapable of putting together a batting lineup.

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Narron can't manage a pitching staff either.

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Whether or not these points are true, those decisions aren't likely to cost the team more than 1-3 wins a season. Now, that is a lot since you're in the absolutely terrible NL Central, but you can and should start blaming the GM for making ludicrous trades for middle relievers who aren't any good in the first place (Lopez/Kearns trade was absolutely unacceptable).

[kyleb]

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kyle,

at 6.25x2 more years it was a much more reasonable offer.

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Yes, without a doubt. I cannot believe ESPN had Griffey making $6.25m for one of his years in a multiyear deal - that's obviously impossible for a guy like him. If the Reds absorb $8-12mm, it would be worth dealing a prospect.

[MicroBob]

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His reasoning? They needed to get something started and Castro was 1-1 career against Alan Embree (the one hit being a double 7 years ago).

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If this is true then that's really weird.

[Neuge]

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The Reds have a ton of problems, but Narron was a major one. He's completely incapable of putting together a batting lineup.

...

Narron can't manage a pitching staff either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not these points are true, those decisions aren't likely to cost the team more than 1-3 wins a season. Now, that is a lot since you're in the absolutely terrible NL Central, but you can and should start blaming the GM for making ludicrous trades for middle relievers who aren't any good in the first place (Lopez/Kearns trade was absolutely unacceptable).

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With the Reds tendency to get into close games that are blown by the bullpen, the combination of those two add up to more than 1-3 games imo. I'd put it at about 7-9. Having Dunn batting 5-7th is inexcusable as he would have 5-10 more RBIs hitting cleanup.

I'm not saying Narron was their only, or even worst problem. Put to the question, I'd probably agree that Krivsky is the worst. I think if Bray can stay healthy he could develop into a decent reliever, but that trade was unacceptable. It still wouldn't be an even one if Bray does become a great reliever, let alone just a decent one. But, getting rid of Narron, even if they have bigger problems, can't be a bad thing.

[Neuge]

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His reasoning? They needed to get something started and Castro was 1-1 career against Alan Embree (the one hit being a double 7 years ago).

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If this is true then that's really weird.

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Whether that's what was actually going through his head at the time I don't know, but that's more or less verbatim the reasoning he gave during the post-game press conference. Either way, unless Hamilton is injured, batting Castro for him in that position is indefensible. Especially when you consider he still had a much better, switch-hitting Javy Valentin to use.

[rwperu34]

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It's not so much that. It's that Dunn's K rate is up and his walk rate is down. If he mantains his career BABIP and HR/FB% with his current K and BB rates, he's looking at a line of something like .220/.320/.485. That's not good for what amounts to a DH.

[/ QUOTE ]
But his BABIP and HR/FB are both up this year. Overall, his stats this year are almost identical to his carrer-best 2004 season, though his OBP and SLG are a bit down. But that's because his FB% is down a couple points from that season, which accounts for the slight dip in those numbers (along with his decreased walk rate for OBP). Narron regularly batting him 5th, 6th, and sometimes 7th allows pitchers to go after him much more.

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Dunn has a long career behind him and an established BABIP and HR/FB%. Barring an injury or some massive juicing, I wouldn't expect either of those stats to flucuate far from his career norm. BB% and K% tend to stablalize much quicker. Looking at his career, you see a very narrow fluctuation in those two stats. The fact that he's King at a career high pace and walking at a career low pace is a huge cause for concern.

[Neuge]

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It's not so much that. It's that Dunn's K rate is up and his walk rate is down. If he mantains his career BABIP and HR/FB% with his current K and BB rates, he's looking at a line of something like .220/.320/.485. That's not good for what amounts to a DH.

[/ QUOTE ]
But his BABIP and HR/FB are both up this year. Overall, his stats this year are almost identical to his carrer-best 2004 season, though his OBP and SLG are a bit down. But that's because his FB% is down a couple points from that season, which accounts for the slight dip in those numbers (along with his decreased walk rate for OBP). Narron regularly batting him 5th, 6th, and sometimes 7th allows pitchers to go after him much more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dunn has a long career behind him and an established BABIP and HR/FB%. Barring an injury or some massive juicing, I wouldn't expect either of those stats to flucuate far from his career norm. BB% and K% tend to stablalize much quicker. Looking at his career, you see a very narrow fluctuation in those two stats. The fact that he's King at a career high pace and walking at a career low pace is a huge cause for concern.

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I wouldn't say his BB% and K% have stabilized. His K% has been rapidly dropping over the past month and is back around his career average. He's no longer on pace to shatter his own single-season K record. His BB% has been on a small upswing, but nothing significant yet. Really, his stats are all but identical to his career-best '04 season. His OBP and SLG are suffering a bit because of the decreased BB rate, but everything else is right on par.