playing draws

[Crispy Bacon]

I'm interested in hearing the factors that affect whether you raise, call or fold with a draw. I think the easiest way of discussing this is with examples. Assume UTGa is standard TAGish type player and you think he has top pair. Assume even stacks.

1) stacks 3k (blinds 50/100), UTG raises to 300, MP1 and MP2 call. hero calls OTB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (ok because of 2 callers right?)

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG bets 800, both fold, hero..?

2) Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Same betting as 1, hero?

3) same situation as 1) except stacks are 10k

4) same situation as 2) except stacks are 10k

If preflop is awful, fine, it's really the flop situation I'm interested in. If you decide to call or raise (not all-in) then please state your actions on turn if bet/checked to.

[Jack-in-a-box]

1) Hero folds very fast
2) Hero goes allin
3) Not sure but I fold as well
4) Hero flat calls

[degeneratedonk]

what stage of tournament?

don't see how pushing all-in with potentially 17 outs on the flop could ever be wrong in a multi-way pot, but that would depend on the stage of tourney and the level of competition at the table.

[hamnegger]

flop1: fold
flop2: shove
flop3:call
flop4: call or rai is ok

[PantsOnFire]

1) Prolly fold, don't see the implied odds and flush might not be good anyways.

2) Push.

3) Call.

4) Raise to 2500. Call all-in reraise. I don't like calling here because if the card(s) you want come on the turn, villain may shut down.

[cheburashka]

To put a bit behind the answers you've already received... (I'm a bit of a beginner, so I'd welcome criticism of my answer below)

Take your second case first. Assume for a minute that your opponent can see your cards. If you shove, you get the following results:

~10% of the time, your opponent has something weaker than you (i.e. he's bluffing), and he folds. You win 10% time the $2150 in the pot, or $215.

With 15 outs (not 17 as mentioned above, as you shouldn't double-count the 9 or A of clubs), you should expect to win about 50% of the time when you are called by a hand that is ahead of you. This is from a formula in HoH that says to multiply your outs by 4, then subtract outs over 8 (this gives 53%, but there will be sometime when your outs aren't enough--you lose to a full house or something).

Therefore, 45% of the time you are called and you win. This gives you 45% of $4050 (the $2150 in the pot, plus the $1900 required to call you), or $1823. And 45% of the time you are called and you lose, which comes to -$1215 (45% times the $2700 you shoved in).

Adding $215 plus $1823 minus $1215 gives you an expected value on your shove of $823.

And that's when your opponent can see your cards! If he can't see your cards, there will be some times when he folds hands that are ahead of you, and your expected value is even higher than $823.

If you do exactly the same math for your first case (with nine outs instead of fifteen), you should come to an expected value of -$271. And even if you could get your opponent to fold not 10% of the time, but 20%, you still have an expected value of -$2.