88 v QQX NL50 vs loose

bluffbetter · #1 07-07-2007, 06:47 AM

Villain is 50/20.8/1.0 over 24 hands

I think I made a mess of this. What's the best play on the flop, raise or call? And is villains aggression too low for the river to be a call? I guess if it was a bluff they would very likely bet more on the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($36.20)
UTG ($55)
MP ($69.20)
Button ($58.75)
Hero ($46.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($4.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $3, Hero raises to $8.5, UTG calls $5.50.

Turn: ($21.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: ($21.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12.

Final Pot: $45.50

karlwig · #2 07-07-2007, 07:01 AM

i find it hard to give advices here, cause it's all a matter of villian's playing style. is he the kind of player who fires off all the time, but never calls others without having it? does he check when he misses or does he set traps?

anyway, i think a flop raise is good if you think he missed. it gives you info right away, and you make sure he doesn't catch a turn card cheap. So i like it.

Once he calls, i'd try to check it down like you did. when he bets on river you don't beat much, so this is very close i think. But you only need to win 1/3 of the time to get even so it's fine. And you get to see what he's holding too, that could be profitable later.

eWeet · #3 07-07-2007, 07:24 AM

I think that the best play on the flop would have to be to fold your hand. Villain's raising range includes the possibility of him having a queen or possibly a higher pocket pair. With his aggression factor being low, I wouldn't expect him to be putting out a bet on the flop. But then again this is only 24 hands in and maybe his true aggression factor is higher.

As played, I think that raise is a good play to look the villain up if he did miss the flop. Turn, as played, looks fine. On the river, I think you have to fold the villain's ~1/2 pot bet. 1/2 pot bets on the river look fishy just because it looks too cheap to be a value bet and I think that what the villain was doing here.

Jamougha · #4 07-07-2007, 09:53 AM

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] why checkraise bluff the flop when you have tons of showdown value. He is not bluffing the river. There are no draws out and he didn't float the flop with air so he could check behind on the turn and bluff the river. ppl just don't play like that.