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#11
07-06-2007, 05:31 PM
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Re: JJ, I feel weak
[ QUOTE ]
Setmining 101: To BREAK EVEN you need to win back 11.7 times your preflop investment. In this hand hero has to call 2.25 more. 2.25 x 11.7 = 26.3 Effective stacks 25$ (minus the rake). There is no way you can call the 4bet to setmine and show a profit. I'll repeat that for dramatic effect: There is no way you can call the 4bet to setmine and show a profit. (you CAN call and continue on a flop with no overs, but that is something else entirely - and FWIW I dont think that is a good idea either) [/ QUOTE ] Wtf? No. Call pre, just fold flop. 
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#12
07-06-2007, 06:36 PM
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Re: JJ, I feel weak
do I raise his donkbet?
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#13
07-06-2007, 07:12 PM
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Re: JJ, I feel weak
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Setmining 101: To BREAK EVEN you need to win back 11.7 times your preflop investment. In this hand hero has to call 2.25 more. 2.25 x 11.7 = 26.3 Effective stacks 25$ (minus the rake). There is no way you can call the 4bet to setmine and show a profit. I'll repeat that for dramatic effect: There is no way you can call the 4bet to setmine and show a profit. (you CAN call and continue on a flop with no overs, but that is something else entirely - and FWIW I dont think that is a good idea either) [/ QUOTE ] Wtf? No. Call pre, just fold flop. [/ QUOTE ] This is basic stuff fish. Read this thread then come back and apologize later for handing out poor advice.
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#16
07-06-2007, 09:20 PM
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Re: JJ, I feel weak
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Setmining 101: To BREAK EVEN you need to win back 11.7 times your preflop investment. In this hand hero has to call 2.25 more. 2.25 x 11.7 = 26.3 Effective stacks 25$ (minus the rake). There is no way you can call the 4bet to setmine and show a profit. I'll repeat that for dramatic effect: There is no way you can call the 4bet to setmine and show a profit. (you CAN call and continue on a flop with no overs, but that is something else entirely - and FWIW I dont think that is a good idea either) [/ QUOTE ] Wtf? No. Call pre, just fold flop. [/ QUOTE ] This is basic stuff fish. Read this thread then come back and apologize later for handing out poor advice. [/ QUOTE ] Lol, you're wrong. DUCY? All you have addressed is the implied odds of hitting set. Anyone with half a brain can see that you easily have enough pot odds too. It costs you 2.25 to potentially win the 8.5 in there. Already you're getting almost 4 to 1. Obviously this + implied odds should be enough, but this can easily be checked with math. You are putting in 2.25 to win 8.5 + 20 of your opponent if you hit, BECAUSE THE MONEY ALREADY IN THE POT IS DEAD MONEY. SO EVEN BY YOUR 11.7 RULE YOU CAN CALL. You can PM me your apology. Snap cawl preflop.
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#17
07-06-2007, 10:33 PM
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Re: JJ, I feel weak
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Setmining 101: To BREAK EVEN you need to win back 11.7 times your preflop investment. In this hand hero has to call 2.25 more. 2.25 x 11.7 = 26.3 Effective stacks 25$ (minus the rake). There is no way you can call the 4bet to setmine and show a profit. I'll repeat that for dramatic effect: There is no way you can call the 4bet to setmine and show a profit. (you CAN call and continue on a flop with no overs, but that is something else entirely - and FWIW I dont think that is a good idea either) [/ QUOTE ] Wtf? No. Call pre, just fold flop. [/ QUOTE ] This is basic stuff fish. Read this thread then come back and apologize later for handing out poor advice. [/ QUOTE ] Holy crap, how could you link that post and not understand anything except for 11.7? From the very first post in the thread you linked: [ QUOTE ] 1) obv there is money in pot already [/ QUOTE ] We have odds to setmine. (Keep in mind, we're putting him on a big PP in a 4bet pot, we're going to stack him if we hit, except on the scariest of flops)
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#18
07-07-2007, 06:54 AM
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Re: JJ, I feel weak
Ok, here is the math geek grinding away at numbers on a Saturday afternoon.
For this specific example I've written a small program and came up with the following numbers: This is in this hand against Aces or Kings only, and villain is going to stack of anyway. The rake has been subtracted from the pot. we will not hit a set: 87.766% we will hit a set (or better): 12.234% we will win the hand with the set: 80.343% we will lose the hand with the set: 19.229% we will tie the hand with the set : .42823% in 87.766% of the cases, we lose our original call, which is 2.25 in the other 12.234% of the cases, we invest another 19.75, which in total brings the investment from the decision point to 22 we will win the pot (47.60) 80.373 % of the time we will lose the pot 19.229 % of the time we will tie the pot .42823 % of the time 80.373 % we win 47.60 - 22 we invested, which is 25.6 --> 20.58 19.229 % we lose the 22 invested, which is -4.23 .42823 % we tie, getting 47.60 / 2= 23.8, net of 1.8 --> 0.01 -------- + 17.35 So, in summary: we lose $ 2.25 87.766% of the time --> -$1.97 we win $ 17.35 12.134% of the time --> +$2.11 ------ +$0.14 So we make $0.14 by calling, and only if villain is going to stack of 100% of the time. I'd say that won't happen, so it's marginal at best. By the way against Aces only the EV is +$0.16, against Kings only the EV is +$0.11
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#19
07-07-2007, 07:17 AM
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Re: JJ, I feel weak
Why do we need 11.7 times when a set is 1 in 8? Surely set over set or villain hitting a flush on the flop with AK suited is rare enough to not need that much more?
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#20
07-07-2007, 08:36 AM
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Re: JJ, I feel weak
That's what I call a blunder,
$ 20.58 $ -4.23 $ 0.01 ------- + is NOT $17.35, it's $16.35, which changes the situation a bit: we lose $ 2.25 87.766% of the time --> -$1.97 we win $ 16.35 12.134% of the time --> +$1.98 ------ +$0.01 (Against AA or KK) Very marginal indeed, against KK it's probably -EV now, but I haven't got my math programs started up yet. I'd fold.
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