NL100: Set facing river check raise -- bluff or monster?

[Bianculli]

Villain is 18/7/1.6 over 71 hands. Haven't seen anything unusual.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|[color=#C00000]saw showdown</font>

MP2 ($19.05)
MP3 ($100)
CO ($44.75)
Button ($140.10)
SB ($19)
BB ($137.45)
UTG ($161.05)
UTG+1 ($90.60)
Hero ($294.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7, 7.
2 folds[/i]</font>, Hero raises to $3.5</font>, 5 folds</font>, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($7.50) 7, A, T (2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero bets $5</font>, BB calls $5.

Turn: ($17.50) 6 (2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero bets $10</font>, BB calls $10.

River: ($37.50) J (2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero bets $20</font>, BB raises to $75</font>, Hero???

[jhill3535]

I don't think that he thinks that it is a bluff. I think that it is very reasonable that he has AJ, and maybe AT. TT is also reasonable from a competent player.

All in all, I shove. If he called 2 bets and hit the gutshot or flopped or rivered an overset then more power to him. I think there are plenty of hands that we beat that call here and very few reasonable hands that beat us.

[CalledDownLight]

Wow...wtf? This line makes sense with exactly 0 hands to me. I don't even see what he's trying to rep. 89 is my best guess, but c/c turn and c/r river is a unique way to play this. I just call and expect him to show up with that most of the time because there are no draws at all and no hands that make sense as a bluff. Also, this raise is way too thin with anything less than AAA for value here imo and 18/7 shouldn't be a complete retard so I can't expect to see thinner value than that.

FWIW, shove is pretty bad for 2 reasons. The first is that only better hands call and the second is because it would be better to call and see wtf he did this with than have him fold a worse hand. I call because thats my default with big hands when I'm really confused and it can't be too big of a leak calling here imo.

[Bianculli]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow...wtf? This line makes sense with exactly 0 hands to me. I don't even see what he's trying to rep. 89 is my best guess, but c/c turn and c/r river is a unique way to play this. I just call and expect him to show up with that most of the time because there are no draws at all and no hands that make sense as a bluff. Also, this raise is way too thin with anything less than AAA for value here imo and 18/7 shouldn't be a complete retard so I can't expect to see thinner value than that.

FWIW, shove is pretty bad for 2 reasons. The first is that only better hands call and the second is because it would be better to call and see wtf he did this with than have him fold a worse hand. I call because thats my default with big hands when I'm really confused and it can't be too big of a leak calling here imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like you, I was totally confused by this line. What big hand checks the turn and this river? I had no clue.

[SABR42]

Bet bigger on the flop, turn, and river to get more value.

As played, I might shove for value against AT/AJ whatever. I'm certainly not folding.

[Renton]

god why do people make these weak ass bets

I don't know what to do on the river. I guess you call because who the [censored] knows what he's doing. He could be making a play on you since according to your bets it looks like your hand might be pretty weak. He could think AJ is good.

Deception is great in poker i guess, but you are putting yourself in terrible spots by poorly valuebetting your hands. So many players in my game have this leak, and they win a lot of pots thanks to it (e.g. me calling on the river getting like 49304809:1 vs their nuts), but they are leaving a lot of money on the table. How the hell do you expect to get all in vs AK when you bet 1/2 pot each street. He isn't going to raise, he's just going to call down.

endrant

[Bianculli]

[ QUOTE ]
god why do people make these weak ass bets

I don't know what to do on the river. I guess you call because who the [censored] knows what he's doing. He could be making a play on you since according to your bets it looks like your hand might be pretty weak. He could think AJ is good.

Deception is great in poker i guess, but you are putting yourself in terrible spots by poorly valuebetting your hands. So many players in my game have this leak, and they win a lot of pots thanks to it (e.g. me calling on the river getting like 49304809:1 vs their nuts), but they are leaving a lot of money on the table. How the hell do you expect to get all in vs AK when you bet 1/2 pot each street. He isn't going to raise, he's just going to call down.

endrant

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL, point taken about the undersized bets. It's not something I always do and whenever I do it, I am frequently reminded of why I don't like it. Passiveness of villain really made me feel he had A-weak and would not call bigger bets. I felt I was making precise bets to build the pot carefully (or some bs like that).

[Hklm8383]

i usually never fold set but im pretty sure you have to fold there

[BigBiceps]

this is AA or KQ almost always.

fold river.

yes, morons call with a gutshot the whole way.

[Bianculli]

[ QUOTE ]
this is AA or KQ almost always.

fold river.

yes, morons call with a gutshot the whole way.

[/ QUOTE ]

But does he check AA on the river? What could he put me on that I would bet that river if he has aa (and then call that raise to boot)? I might could see possibly checking KQ on that river, but even then I have not been attacking this pot (as Renton so aptly pointed out) and to me, it looks like I am likely to check behind on this river. I just don't see him risking getting no value out of hitting that big of a hand.