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#32
07-06-2007, 03:59 PM
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Re: something I\'ve never done
Thanks for doing the equity calculations.
You are still not representing the fact that there are 16.5 SB in the pot, and betting now increases your chance of winning them. If you have only 18% equity in a 5 way pot where everyone calls, betting would be a 0.1 SB mistake. Now, if you fold someone with a longshot hand (imagine what a lone 4, or A6, or JJ is thinking about this flop) you recover about 25% of their equity. A 2-4 outer will hit on the turn about 8% of the time, making this fold earn you 0.33SB in equity. Thinking about this momentarily you realize that if any opponent has a 1/20 chance to have a hand to fold, betting is good. Betting the turn is not a bad play either, it's a reasonable debate about which is better. You get to double the bet that you can put into the pot, and you might get someone to bet into you with a worse hand. However, since you have position, its not impossible that you'll get to take advantage of +EV bets on both the flop and turn. If betting the turn is +EV... why is not betting the flop? It adds only 33% to the total pot size, and doesn't take away any possible play on the turn. Obviously you can judge your chance of winning on the turn much better than on the flop, but the lack of flop information doesn't mean you can't make the best percentage play. My opinion is: Bet flop. Bet many turns. Collect $$$$. 
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#33
07-06-2007, 04:10 PM
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Re: something I\'ve never done
Another comment that is specific to this hand:
Given that the first raiser is acting right after you, and raised very early, and you have two aces - it is not at all unlikely that he will have an overpair or AcXx and decide that a check-raise is his best play. Having the 2nd best hand help you face the field with two bets is a major coup, and it probably won't be available on the turn.
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#37
07-06-2007, 05:43 PM
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Re: something I\'ve never done
tessarji - I wasn't actually trying to argue one way or the other with the pokerstoving. You're right of course that it doesn't tell the whole picture, and a lot of the equity from the cold-callers comes from hands that they could easily be bet out of (like very low singleton clubs). I would love to see someone actually do the math for the bet vs. check case and try to figure out the equity differences, but frankly I don't even know where to start.
In the actual hand, I bet the flop. The idea of checking it behind didn't occur to me until later - as the title says, I've never checked behind with an overpair in this situation ever. The 1st PFR called as well as two of the cold-callers. The turn was the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and it checked to 3rd cold-caller who bet (I could tell she was playing passively right now), and I mucked.
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#39
07-06-2007, 07:40 PM
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Re: something I\'ve never done
[ QUOTE ]
orly? what hands are you putting these villains on and how are you counting their collective outs against hero? [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Howard, I actually have been doing some pokerstoving, and looks like I was way off in my estimates. If 1 person has a fd and 1 an oesd (not they this will always happen, ofc), then we only have like 33% equity. Still an edge vs 4 players, but not nearly as much as I thought. I was just making a stupid math mistake. So yeah, checking is totally defensible here. [/ QUOTE ] orly? LOL. Guessing it's "oh really." Clever. The answer to the first quote is in the second one. I did the same thing before I posted. Have to be ready for the orly's. It's an important point that gets overlooked when guys talk about "not wanting to give a free card." When the board is draw heavy, the pot is multi-way and your hand is vulnerable, it may be the best hand but isn't the money favorite. That means the draws have more than 50% equity of every additional dollar that goes in and gives them a better spread on the money already in the pot. A fl dr is 2-1 on the flop and 4-1 on the turn. You also have the str. Not putting more money in on the flop with the best hand isn't always a bad thing.
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#40
07-06-2007, 11:28 PM
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Re: something I\'ve never done
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Who can put 3 loose/passive players on particular hands in a live mid-limit game? Those 2 red Aces may be best on the flop but they've got to fade the turn & river vs. 'The Rundown Squad'. [/ QUOTE ] This is not like some horrific spot to get money in. [/ QUOTE ] It looks pretty horrible to me. But, ok, TR plz, from the next time this comes up for anybody on here. I'll be expecting the results in, oh, about 6 months, when this should come up again. [/ QUOTE ] Howard, I actually have been doing some pokerstoving, and looks like I was way off in my estimates. If 1 person has a fd and 1 an oesd (not they this will always happen, ofc), then we only have like 33% equity. Still an edge vs 4 players, but not nearly as much as I thought. I was just making a stupid math mistake. So yeah, checking is totally defensible here. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for checking it out as you did and posting your findings. Since I have a Mac I don't have pokerstove although I think there's a simulator that I can use with my Poker Academy program but, to tell you the truth, I've never used it. Maybe I should. My position in this situation is just from playing experience. I've never even thought of the numbers. That's probably bad but I've seen 'I have Aces and I hate that flop' often enough against loose players to know I don't like it but I'm certainly not trying to dump on anybody who wants to bet this flop and hope that I didn't sound that way.
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