6.5$ turbos: Why do you push these 2 hands?

[DonLigretto]

Hi

I'm still trying to switch from 11$ regulars to 6.5$ turbos. I said as long as I don't fall below 600$ with my BR I keep trying. Started with 660 and I am at 690 now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
After every 4-tabling session I analyse my hands in SNG Wizard. Some hands are obvious some aren't.
First of all can you tell me if these general assumptions are (almost always) correct?
1. In Headsup as Bigstack, you basically push everything
2. If you have <10BB or SB has <10BB and everybody folds to SB and he calls you you push any two hands
3. If it gets folded to you as SB and you or the BB have <10BB you push everything

Ok so far so good. Then why do you push these two hands? Isn't that a bit too lose? I mean if they already raised (ok just a minraise but still) they're more likely to call you than if they just called the BB. And these hands are really weak we push with aren't they? Way behind villains range I think.

Hand 1
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: t3915
SB: t5900
DonLigretto: t3685

Pre-flop: (3 players) DonLigretto is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Button raises to t800</font>, SB folds, DonLigretto folds.
Uncalled bets: t400 returned to Button.

Results:
Final pot: t1000

Hand 2
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t250/t500
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: t3215
SB: t6400
DonLigretto: t3885

Pre-flop: (3 players) DonLigretto is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Button raises to t1000</font>, SB folds, DonLigretto folds.
Uncalled bets: t500 returned to Button.

Results:
Final pot: t1250

[CmnDwnWrkn]

So you are saying SNGWiz told you to push these two hands?

[ymu]

1. Horribly exploitable. Unless your opponent is down to 10BBish he can afford to wait for a hand to call you with and get an easy double up. HU is already well ITM - it's fine to take risks to win and the shorter stack will.

2. Not sure what this means, but if everyone left to act has around 10BB or less you should open push regardless of your own stack size.

3. Again not sure, but if you're talking about autopushing from the BB on an SB limp - again, horribly exploitable.


These hands are not bubble hands. You are ITM and playing to win - which means taking risks to get all the chips. You should finish 1st and 3rd more often than you do second.

A4s is an easy RRAI 3-handed - it's huge compared to the button's range and he's not raised enough to commit his stack. Not sure about the second - doesn't look like a push to me. I'm not sure how you're running these but you'd have to put villain on an accurate range for both the raise and calling a push. These will be very different from bubble ranges.

[BradleyT]

What is your plan - fold your way into 3rd?

[RRizGod]

reshoving with either of these hands is read dependent.

[tewall]

[ QUOTE ]
1. In Headsup as Bigstack, you basically push everything
2. If you have &lt;10BB or SB has &lt;10BB and everybody folds to SB and he calls you you push any two hands
3. If it gets folded to you as SB and you or the BB have &lt;10BB you push everything.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'd suggest you do a couple of these calculations by hand, as a means to better understand the dynamics as to what is happening. If you look on the FAQ for "ICM" (or even just google it), you'll get information about how to do the calculation. If you don't have pokerstove, you'll want to download it (it's free, as is the ICM calculation site).

The factors involved are:
a)Your stack size
b)Your opponent's stack size
c)Your position
d)Your cards
e)Your opponent's action (if he's acting before you).

You have a starting equity (in terms of the tournament). In choosing whether to push or not, you are trying to determine whether or not a push will increase your tournament equity, or decrease it. If you push, there are two components that determine your equity, your fold equity, and your equity if called. In the case where your opponent raises you, you need to guess with what hands he will raise you, and how many of those he will call if you push. So if he will raise with 60% of his hands, and call a push with top 15% hands, then there is a 75% chance of his folding. So your equity would be .75 x equity given opponent folds + .25 x equity opponent calls and you win the showdown. The higher the fold equity portion, the greater (in general) the number of hands with which you can push.

You really can't answer the question of what you should do in a given situation without specifying what the range of hands your opponent will play or call with. For example, in your question regarding pushing in the BB/SB with 10 or less big blinds, almost certainly the first time you do this it will be +EV. However, if you do it several times in a row, many opponents will adjust their calling range, and call you with hands they should fold. If you were playing a good player, you should keep pushing, because he will understand the range of hands he needs to call, and it will be mathematically +EV for you to push if he is calling correctly. However, he may call incorrectly. There are some real idiots out there that will make incredibly bad decisions that cost themselves a ton of equity, but, unfortunately, also cost you equity. So it's very important to know what hand range your opponent may call you with. Of course, you may not have enough information to know, but it's definitely something you should be thinking about, and something which needs to be specified in any of these questions. Sngwiz is making some guesses for you regarding this, which may or may not be good guesses for your actual situation. Bad low limit players tend to make really bad calls, which sngwiz may not be assuming they will do.

Regarding the heads up question, pushing everything is really not so bad. Even if the blinds are 50 x BB, it's not so easy to exploit. There's an interesting thread on this in this forum somewhere where computer simulations were done, and the results were not intuitive. That is, one would think intuitively that this would be a horrible strategy, but it's really only marginally -EV, assuming your opponent plays correctly. Most players will not play correctly, and will fold far too many hands, waiting for something good to call with.

However, I prefer "playing poker" while the blinds are high, because I believe I can outplay most of my opponents. I'll look for weaknesses in their play, and try to exploit them. Going all in every hand doesn't give you the opportunity to do that.

But if I were playing someone I knew was better than me, I would revert to going all-in (nearly) every hand, once the blinds got down maybe 20 or 25 x BB (I say nearly as I'd probably let the real duds go by, like 72o, but something like 53s or T6o I would push). But I wouldn't expect to be playing someone better than me in a low limit SNG.

Regarding the specific hands you asked about, I would once again recommend you go through the calculations yourself, making different assumptions about the hands villain will raise with and call a push with, and see when a hand like Q4o becomes a +EV push. This will help develop your intuition. Once you've done some of these calculations by hand, then you can go back to using SNGwiz.

[cougar62]

[ QUOTE ]
You should finish 1st and 3rd more often than you do second.



[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you want to finish 3rd more than 2nd? Seems to me you should finish 1st more than 2nd, and 2nd more than third. I guess (maybe) I could understand this reasoning at higher buyins, but down here just get me heads up, I'll win more than my share. Should be the same for any decent player at the 6.50s

Obviously I'm not advocating just shutting it down with 3 players left until one of the others goes busto, but at the same time I'm not taking undue risks to kill my chances of getting heads up and a shot at first. FWIW it's working for me it seems, I have 150 - 133 - 117 over about 1010 games. Serious question, not being a smartass, but do you think I'd have more firsts if I had more 3rds and less 2nds?

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should finish 1st and 3rd more often than you do second.



[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you want to finish 3rd more than 2nd? Seems to me you should finish 1st more than 2nd, and 2nd more than third. I guess (maybe) I could understand this reasoning at higher buyins, but down here just get me heads up, I'll win more than my share. Should be the same for any decent player at the 6.50s

Obviously I'm not advocating just shutting it down with 3 players left until one of the others goes busto, but at the same time I'm not taking undue risks to kill my chances of getting heads up and a shot at first. FWIW it's working for me it seems, I have 150 - 133 - 117 over about 1010 games. Serious question, not being a smartass, but do you think I'd have more firsts if I had more 3rds and less 2nds?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a function of correct strategy. (50%+20%)/2 &gt; 30%.

Once ITM you are playing to win. This won't happen if you let yourself get blinded away waiting for a good hand. So you take risks knowing that if you can get a good size stack you have a much better chance of winning and this more than makes up for the risk of finishing 3rd.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
Serious question, not being a smartass, but do you think I'd have more firsts if I had more 3rds and less 2nds?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. You'd have a higher ROI for a given ITM too.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Serious question, not being a smartass, but do you think I'd have more firsts if I had more 3rds and less 2nds?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. You'd have a higher ROI for a given ITM too.

[/ QUOTE ]
Oops - sorry - not on those stats. They don't look sustainable though, unless you have a huge edge HU - in which case, 'gratz. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]