50NL - 14 outer: Push or call?

Kost · #1 07-06-2007, 07:29 AM

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($50)
Hero ($50.70)
MP ($48)
CO ($19.10)
Button ($56.45)
SB ($59.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, SB raises to $3.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.25.

Flop: ($6.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $6.5, Hero???

I got no reads.

The question is: How do you generally play these kind of draws?

I guess I always tend to get all my money in on the flop when I have, or think I have, 14 outs. I don't try to put my opponent any hands, I don't have consider reads or think about the odds for him folding if I raise. I just go like this "14 outs! Here we go! All in!" and I'm pretty sure it's wrong to think like this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

One more thing:
Pokertracker made me a 51.16% favourite with 14 outs on the flop and 48.10% dog with 13 outs on the flop (which I actually had in this hand).

The Cardplayer calculator made me a 45.25% dog on the flop.

I'll guess the cardplayer calculator is more accurate, right?

So, how do you think and what do you consider when you flop a 14 outer?

hennnerz · #2 07-06-2007, 07:36 AM

The question really is why are you raising 42s UTG at NL50?

But as played I am raising that flop to like $19 and calling the push.

Kost · #3 07-06-2007, 07:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The question really is why are you raising 42s UTG at NL50?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't normally do this [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Maybe 1 out of 100. I like that hand. But my preflop action here has nothing to do with my question about how to play 14 outers.

hennnerz · #4 07-06-2007, 08:04 AM

Hence why I said that is the real question here. But to clarify, 14 outs is more than enough to be raising.

Also, you probs know this, but keeping decisions and actions simple preflop will lead to much easier decisions post flop. Another reason why I am not a fan of the raise. However I will also occasionally do things like this. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

danny8 · #5 07-06-2007, 08:15 AM

i raise to ~$20ish. hes 3bet pf so likely has TT+, AQ+, you're crushing that range.

he'll prolly fold all but JJ+ to your raise leaving you as a 48/52 dog. with all the dead money in the pot its still +ev. also he has to be worried about a set so you might (unlikely, but still..) get him to fold.

Kost · #6 07-06-2007, 08:20 AM

I raised to 26, he pushed and I called. He had KK with one of my diamonds. Yes, your right about simple preflop to easier decisions postflop.

kewl_cph · #7 07-06-2007, 08:27 AM

I think SB has a big overpair (minraise from SB) and I don't think he's going to fold it.

So with that in mind pushing the flop is a high variance, but EV neutral move.

I'd call the flop and see if I spike one of the 14 outs.
Your hand is so disguised that he'll beat you into the pot when you reraise all-in, when that black 4 or 2 rolls off on the turn.

You'll probably get some payoff if you hit the flush, not everyone can lay down an overpair facing a possible flush.

hennnerz · #8 07-06-2007, 08:27 AM

Regardless of results this is the right move. You are showing good aggression in the right situation. There isn't alot of fold equity against KK but against other bgi hands this makes up for the fact you were a slight dog when the money went in.

TheRenaissance · #9 07-06-2007, 08:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i raise to ~$20ish. hes 3bet pf so likely has TT+, AQ+, you're crushing that range.

he'll prolly fold all but JJ+ to your raise leaving you as a 48/52 dog. with all the dead money in the pot its still +ev. also he has to be worried about a set so you might (unlikely, but still..) get him to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This post pretty much sums it up.

I'd like to add that stuff like this is very good for your image as well. Everyone will think you are there to gamb00l and they will be more than happy to accomodate your degen nature.

molotom · #10 07-06-2007, 08:53 AM

I don't think theres anything wrong with the ARRIN mindset when you have 14 outs on the flop. When you are so close to a coinflip shoving is always +EV.

The most important consideration, is how strong/disguised your outs are. For instance, OESD+pair is a terrible draw to just call with: if you hit your straight, there'll be 4 to a straight on the board so you will not get paid off, and if you hit some of your two-pair outs you'll be holding 2-pair on a 4-straight board. However it's a good draw to play aggressively... someone holding TT on a 568r board is going to be in a crappy spot if you bet/3-bet all in holding 87o.

However with something like K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on an A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] board, you have 12 outs to the nuts, and if you hit one, people will be less likely to put you on the draw: the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is on the board so a FD is less likely, and people can't just immediately put you on the gutshot if a T falls. If a passive donkey check-minraised me on this flop (telling me that he has a strong hand and that I have no fold equity), I would at least consider just calling.

However, against a strong player I think it's normally best to just shove it in on the flop, since you have more fold-equity, and he will be more likely to fold the turn if you hit and punish you if you don't. Playing your draws aggressively helps to balance your strategy and make you a much tougher opponent.

In the OP's example, I would raise. After the preflop 3-betting and his PSB lead on the flop, the pot is too large in relation to stacks for fancy play. Personally I would make an annoying raise to $19 hoping to induce a tilt-shove from AK (which you have crushed 83/17)... someone who min3bets preflop doesn't fold an overpair here ever so against TT+ the money goes in on the flop regardless.