PS $2.20 Satellite to $11 $100,000 Tournament

ronbo1964 · #1 07-04-2007, 06:06 PM

Top 49 get a satellite seat, 50th gets $3 ... We are down to 50 ... I am 46th, but effectively 49th, as all other shortstacks besides the guy at my table two positions to my right can survive longer than he and I due to their relation to the blinds on their tables ... Blinds are 1200/600/75 ... He is UTG with 1620 before ante ... I have 1740 ... He folds ... If he gets lucky and wins next hand, I've got to survive one all-in in either of the next two hands after this ... I get dealt AA ... If I push and everyone folds (not likely), I have t4140, and barring any miracle by 7 others, I win a seat ... If I push and get called, I'm ~75%-80% to win, and still getting a seat barring some absolute miracle ... If I fold, then say 50% win probability for short stack next hand, and if he wins, then I have 50% chance to win a hand in the next two ... Which means I'm also about 75% to survive another round if I fold ... This seems to be a very close decision ... ANYTHING besides AA here is a clear fold as far as I'm concerned ... Thoughts ???

dave6 · #2 07-04-2007, 07:47 PM

Suppose you decide to fold every hand until the blinds come around. There's probably about a 50% chance the other short stack survives going through the blinds. If he makes it, you then have a 50% chance of surviving the blinds. If you make it this far, you almost certainly get a seat. So folding gives you at least a 75% chance of making it.

But this is not the only way to win. There are 3 hands before the blinds get around to you, which is 3 chances for a medium/big stack at another table to blow themselves up.

In addition to this, if you push AA now you're likely to get more than one caller, which means your chance of winning is a lot less than 85% (it's 74% against 2 random hands and 64% against 3 random hands). I would fold AA here.

If you do end up in the big blind 4 hands from now, use your time bank to watch the lobby and see if anyone at another table busts. If they do, obviously fold any two and you win.

ronbo1964 · #3 07-05-2007, 12:13 PM

Thanks for the reply ... It was tough because I could see, oddly enough given the buy in, no one elsewhere making a mistake as a medium stack as we were hand for hand, and everyone was just folding ... You're right about the fact that I SHOULD have gotten more than one caller ... Naturally, though, the one who did call with KT made a boat and I "won" $3 ... At least I didn't go out 51st and get nothing with this LOL ...