AJs UTG

[neeeel]

if we assume he is a regular player, then hes only goin to 3-bet with AK, JJ(maybe TT) +. if this is the case, should we even call preflop? cos as u say xhad, were going to get owned a lot. We have top pair, but most of the time were going to lose, and if we flop an ace instead of J, we still have same problem.
there are 16 AK combos which we beat
there are 24 JJ+ combos which we dont beat
does this mean that
40% (16/40) of the time we will win, 60% we will lose.
plus the fact that he probably wouldnt call down with AK against my aggression, i think hes scared of me having JJ

[Maxinho]

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Check raise the flop, he probably has TT or AQ AK, by the way he play, if he had aces kings or queen he is really weak

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Huh? Villain has bet or raised at every opportunity. AA-JJ is still in his range.

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i check, villain bets, i raise, villain calls

on the river he bets and the villain only calls, you really think he's drawing thin?

[Maxinho]

I would check raise the flop, bet the turn and bet the river

[Xhad]

Max, what you put him on after the river action means exactly nothing in this discussion. The question is what conclusions hero should draw when he's deciding what to do. If you can predict the future then just see what he had at showdown and then play perfectly.

[Maxinho]

dude, maybe when you raise on the flop you can read someone's hand based on the course action, right?

I don't know I'm super agressive on the flop, without reads gets complicated, but I'd probably raise the flop, call a 3bet and check raise the turn, if raised I would probablu fold

and check behind on the river

[Xhad]

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dude, maybe when you raise on the flop you can read someone's hand based on the course action, right?

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Of course, but my point is your posts make it sound like you're so sure your hand is great before seeing how he reacts to your flop c/r. If you stove against a reasonable pf 3bet range (keeping in mind that you raised UTG so this isn't a resteal situation) you're looking at around 52-55% equity, and that's if he cbets every time. That's not a great edge.

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I'd probably raise the flop, call a 3bet and check raise the turn

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This is even worse than OP's line; the only thing left to get value from after he 3bets the flop is a flush draw and you just offered it a free card.

[Maxinho]

so whats the right way to play?
I think check raise on the flop is standard

and about the free card, he will get the same pot odds if I bet flop, bet turn, the only thing that changes is that he can show me weakeness on the flop if I raise

[Xhad]

IMO it's between:

1 c/c c/c c/c
2 c/c c/c b/f (possibly b/c instead)
3 c/r and do something based on future action

With 3 being the worst with no read. This is only because hero raised UTG and should be up against a rather strong range of hands.

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and about the free card, he will get the same pot odds if I bet flop, bet turn, the only thing that changes is that he can show me weakeness on the flop if I raise

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I'm not sure what you're talking about; I took the earlier post to mean you were advocating c/ring, calling a 3bet and then c/ring again. That's overplaying, there aren't really any made hands left that you beat against a typical villain. I was not suggesting capping and leading as an alternative if that's what you're thinking, your hand is not that good.

[00Snitch]

I'll take door number two thanks Xhad!

I hate it so much when AK checks behind. If he raises AK and I fold, well good for him, what a hero.

[johno]

OK - my take on this...

Assuming normal 3-bet range, on the flop we are ahead 50% of the time, and behind 50% of the time (give or take).

It's HU, so only value in betting/raising if the villain will call with worse hand more often than with a better hand - given statement 1, this seems very unlikely.

Upside of betting/raising - one extra bet if he calls with AK

Downside - risk of RR/screwplay when you have the worst hand
- risk of AK folding with 3 outs
- risk of losing to worse hand if you fold to continued aggression

May be worth betting river, if you think that villain will call with AK, more often than raise with overpair.

I'm C/Cing all the way, and noting down what he three-bets with.