TPGK two cold.

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not convinced 3betting is far from correct here.

MP1 is just being a fish.
MP2's stats are uber LAGTAG. I imagine that this flop raise doesn't mean we are behind all that often. It's probably not far from incorrect for him to raise AK or AQ here, to knock out reverse domination hands or gutshots since the pot is so big, not to mention I'm sure he raises this spot with Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] a good portion also.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the second time I've seen someone with stats like 26/17/2 being characterized as LAG (okay, uber LAGTAG here whatever that means, but it still holds). On a 25 hand sample the difference between 19VPIP and 26VPIP could be as little as 2 hands. A 50 hand sample, 18VPIP = 9 hands, 25 VPIP = 13 hands, is 4 hand difference.

Couple that small difference with a 94VPIP player who makes it worthwhile to play more hands and isolate the loose player and I wouldn't consider MP2 a lag.

With all the pre-flop limpers that will probably call the bet, I don't mind the pre-flop call here, but I'm wanting a OE straight draw and/or a flush draw on the flop.

On the flop all you have is backdoors, your outs are tainted and MP2 likes his hand.. unless I've seen him raise flop-donks with AK... he may just be trying to isolate the fish.... meh, big pot and I'd really look for an excuse to call but I don't think I can find it with this hand.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not convinced 3betting is far from correct here.

MP1 is just being a fish.
MP2's stats are uber LAGTAG. I imagine that this flop raise doesn't mean we are behind all that often. It's probably not far from incorrect for him to raise AK or AQ here, to knock out reverse domination hands or gutshots since the pot is so big, not to mention I'm sure he raises this spot with Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] a good portion also.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the second time I've seen someone with stats like 26/17/2 being characterized as LAG (okay, uber LAGTAG here whatever that means, but it still holds). On a 25 hand sample the difference between 19VPIP and 26VPIP could be as little as 2 hands. A 50 hand sample, 18VPIP = 9 hands, 25 VPIP = 13 hands, is 4 hand difference.

Couple that small difference with a 94VPIP player who makes it worthwhile to play more hands and isolate the loose player and I wouldn't consider MP2 a lag.

With all the pre-flop limpers that will probably call the bet, I don't mind the pre-flop call here, but I'm wanting a OE straight draw and/or a flush draw on the flop.

On the flop all you have is backdoors, your outs are tainted and MP2 likes his hand.. unless I've seen him raise flop-donks with AK... he may just be trying to isolate the fish.... meh, big pot and I'd really look for an excuse to call but I don't think I can find it with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

My stance is that I'm not convinced at all that we are drawing. A good tag running 18/10 probably should be raising with AK or AQ there in that spot, along with JT, J9, TT, 99, A8, and tons of other hands. This is his chance to isolate the loose fish, also.

[Xhad]

Raising AK (not hearts) UI would be horrendous in villain's spot. If it were just the three of us maybe but he really can't expect the limpers to fold a pair and there is really no other reason to do it.

[00Snitch]

Fold it like a pro.

Xhad, would you need both hearts overs, or just one, or just one if it is the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], to raise if you were MP2?

Just wondering.

[Xhad]

I would peel with just one heart (but raise if you made the flop 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). That board is just too limper-friendly and even most 5/10 players won't be capable of folding Jx or even 99.

[marchron]

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So, getting immediate pot odds of 7:1, I think that I would have a thin flop call with my estimated total of 5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Getting 7-1 with five outs, a flop call is thin the wrong way. And that nut is going to three-bet a lot of the time, and when he doesn't he's going to bet the turn, and then MP2 raises and you're in the exact same spot again. Jesus Christ, he has an AF of 10. That's sick.

Save it for when you know you're ahead.

[jeanbaptiste36]

When looking back on the hand, I was leaning towards a call because the maniac was autobetting and the loose player could just be trying to wrest initiative back from the maniac with whiffed whatever T+. This is not a so likely scenario of course, but it made me think 3-bet to protect, if we are good. We have that big pot with a backdoor. However we are on a coordinated board, with lots of players.

On the actual hand, I folded of course like the esteemed posters of this forum suggested.

[NigelSmith]

[ QUOTE ]
Nigel: Mind showing your work on those equity figures

[/ QUOTE ]
Simply 'stoved as Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] vs a 17% range for heads-up, or vs 17%, 2x24% (seems reasonable for unknown limpers) and 80% for Mr Any-Two in MP1.

Myself, I would be calling then folding post-flop if I didn't hit hard -- and I don't think flopping top pair and a backdoor draw is hard enough. But the games I'm playing in at the moment will often see early PF limpers fold for 2 bets back to them so I was wondering if there was any advantage to playing QJs and KJs more aggressively against a preflop raiser.

I guess the answer is "no" :-)