Bad river, is blocking bet best?

[Leobzook]

Button is 31/20 pretty aggro stats but he has not been 3 betting me much. He is capable of bluffs.
I know betting flop is a pretty good option.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $201.75
BB: $311.63
UTG: $700.87
Hero (CO): $812.00
BTN: $325.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $35.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $28.00
Uncalled bet of $10.00 returned to BTN

Flop: ($53) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($53) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $50.00</font>, BTN calls $50.00

River: ($153) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $100.00, folding to raise</font>

[aShtk]

I think you should lead the flop, then pot the turn. Slowplaying a set is ok on a totally uncoordinated flop such as J85, even J45.
The turn bring lots of draws so I will bet the pot to cut the odds.
I don't know what is his 3bet hand range, but he is likely to have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or a straight draw.

The bloking bet on river is clearly the best move here. I would have bet a little more (110$). Without a club you could probably check to induce a bluff, because the only hand he could hit his straight with is TT (except if he's 3betting light).


By the way, you can reraise preflop.

[ftavatar]

i cant think of a hand we're ahead to. aq prolly would have bet the flop as would aa and kk, qq if slowplayed on the flop would have raised the turn. i dont like this but cant think of much else to do other than c/c c/f. with reads i would check and maybe call but could honestly see myself swearing at the monitor and folding (in theory!).

id lead the flop as well, you're trying to play a big pot on that flop and with the stacks i dont think a slowplay is right.

the only hand i think you can get value from from bet folding the river is 8 8. do you think he can float that turn?

[cs3]

you have a set, in a rerasied pot.

i dont see how you can possibly fold to a raise. youve already put 180 in the pot and it would be only another 145 to call in a $650 pot.

seems like he has AA or KK and is trying to play pot control.
AKcc is possible but unlikely.
after checking flop, i think he would definitely raise turn with QQ... so TT is really the only hand i would be afriad of.

im going broke here 100% of the time

[lank4ever]

[ QUOTE ]
i cant think of a hand we're ahead to. aq prolly would have bet the flop as would aa and kk, qq if slowplayed on the flop would have raised the turn. i dont like this but cant think of much else to do other than c/c c/f. with reads i would check and maybe call but could honestly see myself swearing at the monitor and folding (in theory!).

id lead the flop as well, you're trying to play a big pot on that flop and with the stacks i dont think a slowplay is right.

the only hand i think you can get value from from bet folding the river is 8 8. do you think he can float that turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

cc the turn seems close to insane with AK and any 10 being willing to take another free card especially if you are folding the river if he bets again. If you induce he to bluff once there he very well may bluff again thinking you are calling once against the LAG.

If you are checking the turn it should be to C/R AI and that's still pretty bad.

[The White Rabbit]

Bet/fold is fine. No sane man calls turn and shoves river w/ anything you beat here.

[lank4ever]

[ QUOTE ]

you have a set, in a rerasied pot.

i dont see how you can possibly fold to a raise. youve already put 180 in the pot and it would be only another 145 to call in a $650 pot.

seems like he has AA or KK and is trying to play pot control.
AKcc is possible but unlikely.
after checking flop, i think he would definitely raise turn with QQ... so TT is really the only hand i would be afriad of.

im going broke here 100% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree its unlikely that he beats you, but that river card is probably really scary for him too. Semibluffed clubs are definitely in your range. A 10 isn't a huge part of your range but the club river I think cuts down on his bluff raises a lot. I agree that AA KK are probable hands for him, but I just don't see him raising there with those hands after that scary river.

I probably would go broke here too at the table but Im not sure its the right play.

[cs3]

my point is that once you decide to bet, the pot is so huge that you cant fold to a raise... someone work out the math and tell me how often he has to push a better hand for a fold to be correct.

[lank4ever]

[ QUOTE ]
my point is that once you decide to bet, the pot is so huge that you cant fold to a raise... someone work out the math and tell me how often he has to push a better hand for a fold to be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

510x - 140(100-x) = 0

x= 21.52% of the time he must shove a worse hand.

That seems like a lot to me. 1 in 5 times he decides to shove there with worse?

Edit. I think it's pretty clear that betting this river is good because in a 3 bet pot he probably has many more hands that we can get value from than will bluff. I think the river is pretty scary for him too so we won't bet much if we check to him.

I still don't know whether calling a raise on the river is the right play EV wise, but I think it's close enough that calling for my sanity against a person who can bluff is worth it to me currently.