Live 10/20

[templar999]

I have immense respect at the table of regulars. I've taken down three pots uncontested with a raise in early position in the last 2 hours or so with a preflop raise. Once, a late half-kill blind even folded. The two times I did get called, I showed down A23Jds and AA35ds.

The first limper is pretty bad. His range of hands is wide, to say the least. Any big pair with two wheel cards; any four low cards, quite a few 247T and the sort in there too. He's pretty aggressive on the flop with non-nut draws, but slows down on the turn. He'll call with a 7 high flush and a rough 7 for low. The second limper is tight and solid and understands position, although he can be bullied. He'll probably never play a hand without an ace. I'm assuming 4 big cards, an A2HH, maybe an A3Wx-suited.

UTG (loose)limps
UTG+1 (solid) limps
(A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) raises.
The rest of the field and blinds fold. Limpers call.

Flop:
8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, ??
I 3-bet because:
1. I have position
2. UTG could be check raising with a wide range of hands, though it's definitely not complete air.
3. There's a very decent chance my aces are still good for high, and my equity cant be awful.
4. My 3bet might let me take a very useful free (well, cheaper) card on the turn, since UTG will likely check, and UTG+1 will almost never bet a naked A2 here for fear he'll get chopped, unless he makes a wheel.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Not a terrible card for me, though a deuce of clubs or heart would have been better. Action?

[prodonkey]

I'd think that 8 was a pretty great card.

Sure looks like UTG +1 has A2 though, maybe A46.

[Toro de Rojo]

I might take the free card if it's checked to me. You were check-raised on the river, and even though it was by a maniac, he rates to have something. 3s or 8-3? Maybe a low. And even if both players flopped a nut or second-nut low, your over pair isn't all that strong for a high hand.

If it's bet in front of me, I'm calling.

[templar999]

Sorry, didnt fill in all the action. It's checked to me.

I'm pretty sure I have zero fold equity with UTG. Am I better off betting now and taking the free showdown? or checking behind and calling one bet on the river? I'd be more inclined to check behind if I had a flush draw since getting CR'd there would really suck.

If I got CR'd now and the UTG+1 called cold, I would fold pretty easily.

[Buzz]

Templar - The great danger after this turn is running into an opponent with an eight.

Your two opponents have a total of eight cards.

Assuming random cards (not exactly what they have) the probability of one eight in their eight cards is
2*C(42,7)/C(44,8) = 0.3044

Assuming random cards (again, not exactly what they have) the probability of two eights in their eight cards is
1*C(42,6)/C(44,8) = 0.0296

Assuming random cards the probability of no eights in their eight cards is
C(42,8)/C(44,8) = 0.6660

They're less likely than random to play a starting hand with an eight or a pair of eights. How much less likely is impossible to estimate exactly. Given this probable propensity to avoid eights in starting hands, I'd guess in the neighborhood of only 25% to 30% one or both of them has an eight or one of them have a pair of eights. A pair of fives or treys adds to the threat as do other pairs to a lesser extent, and also diamond draws. But all these things considered, you're probably ahead for high at this point. But your hand is very vulnerable and (seems to me) impossible to protect in a limit game.

If low were impossible or maybe even not already enabled, it might be worth taking a shot at the pot. But here low is already enabled and there is a good chance that you're beaten for low (or tied for low). You might knock loose another ace-four-Y-Z, or a deuce-trey-Y-Z, but I don't think you'll get rid of ace-deuce-Y-Z or ace-trey-Y-Z. And being up against A2YZ, A3YZ, or A23Z seems a very real threat here (more likely than trip eights or better for high).

If nobody bets ahead of you, you cannot tell if someone calling or check/raising has the nut low or an eight (or better) for high.

If somebody does bet ahead of you (as anticipated) you cannot tell if the bettor is betting high (presumably with an eight or better) or low (presumably with an ace-deuce, or maybe ace-deuce-trey). Because of the size of the pot, I'd call and hope for a favorable river card. You might still scoop this, although if you give your opponents credibility, I doubt you'll scoop, and you might lose both ways.

You've gotten yourself in between a rock and a hard place.

I don't fault your pre-flop raise and I don't fault your post-flop 3-bet. If the latter indeed got you a free card here, I'd take the free card, and then probably call a single bet on the river.

Sometimes the free card play works.

[ QUOTE ]
Not a terrible card for me, though a deuce of clubs or heart would have been better. Action?

[/ QUOTE ]Take the free card if it's offered. Call a single bet from UTG if it's not.

You'll face a really tough decision if UTG checks and then UTG+1 bets (because if you just call, you could get check/raised by UTG, then re-raised by UTG+1, and then UTG could cap it). Ugly.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, didnt fill in all the action. It's checked to me.

I'm pretty sure I have zero fold equity with UTG. Am I better off betting now and taking the free showdown? or checking behind and calling one bet on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]Templar - I'd check behind and call one bet on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be more inclined to check behind if I had a flush draw since getting CR'd there would really suck.

[/ QUOTE ]Since nobody bet in front of you, you're probably ahead for high with your two pairs. But that could change on the river, and somebody might have you already beaten and be hoping for a check-raise. (Given your very aggressive play up to this point, that would seem a natural line to follow).

[ QUOTE ]
If I got CR'd now and the UTG+1 called cold, I would fold pretty easily.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes, and that would be probably be the best play for this current hand, but considering future hands, that's terrible play. Seems to me you want to avoid possibly putting yourself in that situation.

Buzz

[templar999]

Buzz,

As always, thanks for the in-depth analysis.

[ QUOTE ]
If low were impossible or maybe even not already enabled, it might be worth taking a shot at the pot. But here low is already enabled and there is a good chance that you're beaten for low (or tied for low). You might knock loose another ace-four-Y-Z, or a deuce-trey-Y-Z, but I don't think you'll get rid of ace-deuce-Y-Z or ace-trey-Y-Z. And being up against A2YZ, A3YZ, or A23Z seems a very real threat here (more likely than trip eights or better for high).

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure if you noticed, but the board had a trey. So the only low hand that beats me is the A2, which I'm not entirely sure UTG1 has, though it's his most plausible holding. A wheel wrap is a possibility, but I think he would have bet that on the flop. A non-wheel wrap is not likely, unless it's specifically A467, as he'd give up having to call two bets cold and the low is already gone. If he calls the turn as well, I'll give him nearly 100% credit for A2, as the wraps become very risky with a paired board.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't fault your pre-flop raise and I don't fault your post-flop 3-bet. If the latter indeed got you a free card here, I'd take the free card, and then probably call a single bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think of firing on the turn and taking the free showdown, if available? Granted, I'm not taking into account the possibility of a CR, or being bet into on the river. I guess it really comes down to an EV analysis between the benefits of betting my hand for value, if I'm actually ahead here (doubtful, but not entirely improbable), and the costs of getting CR'd and folding if UTG1 cold calls and losing my chance to outdraw PLUS the likelihood of being bet into on the river and having to call one bet in a pretty big pot with aces up and second low. Thoughts? And if I'm talking gibberish, please just ignore or correct me.

I bet on the turn, got called in both places, and took a free showdown when paint hit the river.

[Omaha8sPoker]

Temp...I like the 3-bet line on the flop as it gives you options to take a free card if let's say a 4 hits or some other crappy card for your hand, but it also lets you bet if a 2 comes...

My personal preference would be to bet on the turn and take the free showdown, but after reading your background info I would say that the tight guy next to you probably has A2 (probably naked)...The "nit" UTG, now that's a tough one...What would he bet out on the flop and not cap? Top 2?? I mean here I would think about capping the flop if I had the wrap here, unless I was being uber tricky and planning on a check-raise on the turn...Is this guy capable of that?? I don't like the 8 coming off...I would much rather see a 3 come off, because it counterfeits him if he was betting top 2, BUT in this kinda situation somebody could easily have a 3...I would lean towards the turn check and re-evaluate on the river because there are a lot of "scare cards" that can come and freeze you if your opponents bet into you on the river...