($55) Stars - AK vs tight UTG raise and reraise all-in

[ryanghall]

UTG is 7/3 after like 33 hands. The reraiser is around 30/10 after the same number. I'm obviously ahead of the reraiser's range but UTG's raise is scary. What's my play here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t6680)
Hero (t3425)
BB (t4870)
UTG (t2810)
UTG+1 (t3650)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t3040)
MP3 (t7510)
CO (t1025)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t1025</font>, 1 fold, Hero?

[BarryLyndon]

This is a tough problem. 33 hands is not a great sample size and it could just be that UTG is card dead. So, when he folds, you're putting in 1025 to win 1300 against what is likely 1010/JJ. When he calls, you're putting down 3425 to win about 4000 and are up against QQ+; AK. If CO really sucks and you know it, you could flat call, but 30/10 is not unreasonable and it looks like CO made a tough fold somewhere. You have plenty of time to manuever/find better spot. I'd fold.

Barry

[aaaaa]

My policy is to push blindly with AK in such scenarios with &lt;3 other players.

Let us see the possible cards a tight UTG raiser may have:
TT-QQ: 18 ways
KK: 3
AA: 3
AK: 9
AQ: 12
Total hands = sum of above = 45

Maybe he folds to your push with TT-JJ and AQ. So he calls 24/45 = 50% of the time.

It's a good assumption to say you've got a 70:30 race with the re-raiser.

So, when the UTG folds (~50% of the time), you win 70% of that time against the re-reraiser. So you're winning 35% of the time.

+ other times you suck out etc, another 5%?

So 40% time you win the whole pot. So push.

[ryanghall]

To assume we're 70:30 with the reraiser is pretty bad, IMO.

Ryan

[tomek322]

Fold, you have 60BB. No need to go nuts. Don't think AQ or KQ call a shove. If your racing it's with TT+, and that not 52/48 more like 58/42.

[aaaaa]

Yeah you're right. He could have raised a tight UTG with:

AK: 9, 22.5%
AQ: 12, 30%
QQ-TT: 18, 45%

So, winning prob =
22.5%*.5 + 30%*.7 + 45%*.5 = 56%
let's take 60%.

So, .5*60% = 30% time, you win 1250
20% time you lose 1250.

Remaining 50%... say you win 20%.
30% time you lose 2800
20%*.5 times you win 2800 (won agst both)
20%*.5 time you win 2800-1250 = 1500 (won agst UTG, lost agst reraiser)

So,
+1250, 30%
-1250, 20%
-2800, 30%
+2800, 10%
+1500, 10%

Total: -285

[LSgambler]

This is push/fold situation. I dont like calling much for 1/3 of your stack. It's pretty close and I hate folding AK in donkaments but I would do it this time.