Man Made Global Warming Theory = Human Excrement

[adios]

Climate History Linky

[wacki]

This is why I can't stand Gore, he's such an easy target. Then again this article is pretty easy to rip apart as well. Plus I'm not even sure gore said all of those things.


From the article:
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Gore argues Greenland is in rapid meltdown, and that this threatens to raise sea levels by 20 feet. But according to a 2005 study in the Journal of Glaciology, "the Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins and growing inland, with a small overall mass gain."

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So lets go look at the actual paper. The blue is what the Chicago Sun-Time quoted and the red is something important that they left out:

<font color="blue">The Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (&amp;#8722;42 ± 2 Gt a&amp;#8722;1 below the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA)) and growing inland (+53 ± 2 Gt a&amp;#8722;1 above the ELA) with a small overall mass gain (+11 ± 3 Gt ; 0.03 mm, 1 SLE (sea-level equivalent)).</font> ..... <font color="red"> Thinning at the margins of the Greenland ice sheet and growth at higher elevations is an expected response to increasing temperatures and precipitation in a warming climate. </font>

Basically warmer ocean = more snow for Greenland. But that snow can only counteract so much melting. Keep in mind both of these sentences are from the very same paragraph in the abstract.

http://www.ingentaconnect.com/conten...00175/art00001

And lets look at the title of the paper:

Mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and shelves and contributions to sea-level rise: <font color="red"> 1992-2002</font>

The movie inconvenient truth came out in 2006 which was four years after this survey was completed. In 2005, before gores movie came out, NASA had satellites up measuring Greenland melt. What were the results?

News: NASA's Grace Finds Greenland<font color="red"> Melting Faster</font>

In the first direct, comprehensive mass survey of the entire Greenland ice sheet, scientists using data from the NASA/German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace) have measured a significant decrease in the mass of the Greenland ice cap.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news-pr...lease=2005-176

So we have a triple whammy of quoting something out of context, using old data and ignoring the Grace satellites which were up and running when Gore launched his movie.

From the article:
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Yet the September 2006 issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate reported, "Glaciers are growing in the Himalayan Mountains, confounding global warming alarmists who recently claimed the glaciers were shrinking and that global warming was to blame."

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I went here:
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?requ...levance#results

Clicked on Journal of Climate and searched for: Glaciers growing Himalayan Mountains

I had one hit and that was not the right paper. I searched for "Glaciers confounding" and had zero hits. We seem to have a missing journal.

From the article:
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Gore claims global warming is causing more frequent and severe hurricanes. However, hurricane expert Chris Landsea published a study on May 1 documenting that hurricane activity is no higher now than in decades past. Hurricane expert William Gray reported just a few days earlier, on April 27, that the number of major hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. Atlantic coast has declined in the past 40 years. Hurricane scientists reported in the April 18 Geophysical Research Letters that global warming enhances wind shear, which will prevent a significant increase in future hurricane activity.

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No comment necessary. I might to a full writeup on my blog. But I think I've made my point.

[wacki]

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Here's the problem from a layman's perspective that I see with climatological predictions other than the norm: Last year's much more active season of hurricanes was predicted by all the experts. It didn't happen. Wacki ways in and responds something to the effect that the forecast models didn't take into account sand storms in Africa that suppresses initial formation of systems that could become hurricanes(if memory serves). My point is that it seems to the layman that if it is this easy to miss such an important variable with long term hurricane predictions that have a massive effect on the weather, how can one put faith in computer models that forecast climate decades in advance(teams of experts may easily not properly take into account even just one important variable, again as evidenced by hurricane predictions that did not come to fruition). To radically alter lifestyles because of models seems presumptuous to many, an 'oops we forgot' to properly take into account variable x doesn't cut it when the proposed remedies are radical and life altering.

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The dust storm is called the saharan air layer or calima. Forecasts do take it into account by they simply don't know what year it will happen. It's like trying to predict what day a volcano will blow up. You know it will happen soon but you can't pin what day it occurs.

Short term = weather
long term = climate

HUGE difference.

[wacki]

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I don't care what Newsweek states, what Time states, what wacki states about the ability of climiate models to accurately predict climate change.

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Well, then why did you ask me what i thought in the other thread?

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The bottom line is that the models are unproven in their predictive value.

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The bottom line is you are dramatically oversimplifying the situation. It's not a black and white answer.

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
The bottom line is you are dramatically oversimplifying the situation. It's not a black and white answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not the one oversimplifying the situation. You are. You're the one that's coming up with black and white answers. The truth is what I said and it's a fact, the predictive value of climate models is unproven.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The bottom line is you are dramatically oversimplifying the situation. It's not a black and white answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not the one oversimplifying the situation. You are. You're the one that's coming up with black and white answers. The truth is what I said and it's a fact, the predictive value of climate models is unproven.

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Nothern but not southern polar amplification and stratospheric cooling (which are smoking guns of global warming) were predicted by the models. They were also observed. Those aspects of the models have been proved. There really isn't any other way to look at it.

Now move your eyes over to precipitation, aerosols, and glacier melt and there are big question marks.

You really can describe the accuracy of the models with one sentence much less one word.

[Praetorian Card]

I am a big fan of people trying to understand the climate and earth.

I am a BIG critic of new wave scientists @ the UN thinking they figured everything out. It' so arrogant.

By all accounts, when the Sun calms in 2012 we will cool some...of course, Al and his crowd will take all the credit. He'll throw another concert....

Eventually he'll have to answer for the mercury light bulb...

[wacki]

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You really can describe the accuracy of the models with one sentence much less one word.

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can = can't

sorry for the typo

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
I am a big fan of people trying to understand the climate and earth.

I am a BIG critic of new wave scientists @ the UN thinking they figured everything out. It' so arrogant.

By all accounts, when the Sun calms in 2012 we will cool some...of course,

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a big fan of people who can't even get history right that somehow still think they know more than the worlds leading experts.

You wanna talk about arrogance? Look in the mirror.

In other words your posts are of such poor quality (e.g. global cooling, blaming the sun for the warming) that they really aren't worth responding to.

[Praetorian Card]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am a big fan of people trying to understand the climate and earth.

I am a BIG critic of new wave scientists @ the UN thinking they figured everything out. It' so arrogant.

By all accounts, when the Sun calms in 2012 we will cool some...of course,

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a big fan of people who can't even get history right that somehow still think they know more than the worlds leading experts.

You wanna talk about arrogance? Look in the mirror.

In other words your posts are of such poor quality (e.g. global cooling, blaming the sun for the warming) that they really aren't worth responding to.

[/ QUOTE ]

My My you are testy. I hear that about religous types. You question their religion and they get all defensive and get into attack mode. Everyone is stupid, they are above question.

Ok, wacki, the we are all going to drown in 100 years and Exxon / George Bush did it to us. They melted the ice caps.

Rest easily. Tell Rev. Gore all is well on two plus two. I am among the converted now. Praise the UN. Praise the UN. Praise the UN. Repeat.

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