FL new stakes Eve: what I\'ve seen the last 6 months...
I've been keeping records for the past 6 months to see if it was possible to make money at $2 poker. I didn't expect that I could play profitably and the data I've collected seems to confirm this.
For the record I've been playing amateur poker for 20+ years. I'm a lifetime winning player at brick & mortar, but a loser online (26K hands, -1.17 bets/100) though I've been making headway lately at HORSE. Whatever. I've been playing FL poker for two years now and I play slightly tighter than "Small Stakes" recommends, which is pretty much a semi-loose aggressive style for this environment.
So, according to my records from January 1 2007 to today I've played 96 hours. Not all that much, but for what it's worth it's about 3800 hands if you assume 40 hands/hour. Over that time I'd guess that I've played 85% LHE, with 10% O8 and 5% 7 Stud. O8 is probably my best game but they only spread one table, if that, at the local dog track so I don't get a chance to play all that much. I'm pretty much a hit & run player since I don't typically have more than two hours to play at a time. It's workable because I'm just 5 minutes from the poker room, so I can squeeze in some time here & there without having to make a special trip. So, over this interval and at these stakes I'm -$105, which is -$1.09/hour. I wish I had kept a record of how many pots an hour I won; it really couldn't be more than 2 or 3 on average. So if I was a creep & never tipped I guess I could be in positive territory a buck or two. My feeling is, that riding out the variance and playing actual poker strategy consistently it's almost impossible to beat the rake ($5 max, $45 pot) and tips at the $2 stakes. I don't think this is a news flash, but contrary to much of the blather we've heard about "winning" at FL poker this opinion is backed up by actual data, however limited.
The decision by the FL legislature to raise the stakes July 1 has made this little experiment more interesting than I originally anticipated. I'll be keeping records of my play for the next 6 months and I'll try to track hands/hours, pot size, winners/hour more closely. It'll be fun to compare the two halves of 2007 next January. My guess is that I'll finally creep up in to positive territory, but not nearly enough to cover the cost of Miller tall boys or blind dolla' tri boxes on the dawgies. So for all you ballers, good luck with the new stakes but expect just short hayride to Profit Town. You'll still find me in the poker room because rake be damned I like to play poker and know that I can play better than the 8 (we're 9 handed here) other players seated at my table. That's enough for me until I sit down in AC, or maybe Vegas, again. In the meantime I'd be really interested to see what games will be the softest as we Floridians get a shot at NL and stakes that have now risen from pitiful to measly. I have my opinion, but we'll see what happens.
Spleener
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06-30-2007, 09:08 PM
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