3/6 flopped nut straight - tricky river

82Steve · #1 03-02-2006, 07:38 PM

i thought this one is kind of interesting.
villain is like 37/11/1

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (11.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB

i think calling the river is questionable, but i want to explain my reasoning:
i am only beaten if he had a pair on the flop. overpair is rather unlikely since he called PF and reraised the turn (by that time he had to worry about me having trips), although i do know that sometimes they just see their pocket aces and see 3 raise buttons.
the probability of him having a Q dwindels with every street, i just have to take that risk. something else seems rather unlikely given the flop action.
which leads me to the possibility that he might be heavily pumping a good draw (probably hearts, maybe even OESFD) or already has a straight himself and MHIG.

odds: ~1:12
do I think i win this pot 7.7%
hell yeah, i do.

Results in white below: 
BB has 7d Jh (three of a kind, queens).
Hero has Jd Kh (straight, king high).
Outcome: Hero wins 13.16 BB.

GetThere1Time · #2 03-02-2006, 07:42 PM

I cap the flop. Turn and river are fine the way you played it. You could be chopping or maybe he has J8. It's worth a river call.

P.S. Don't post results.

TheGunner · #3 03-02-2006, 07:43 PM

Why don't you cap the flop?

Straights are far too dangerous to slowplay.

bcotton · #4 03-02-2006, 07:44 PM

Why not cap the flop? Turn is fine. River, I have a hard time folding in a huge pot, too.

82Steve · #5 03-02-2006, 07:48 PM

hmm, wanted to induce a turn bet to be able to raise again. thought a cap will kill the action. but ok, me nuts me cap next time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

GetThere1Time · #6 03-02-2006, 07:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hmm, wanted to induce a turn bet to be able to raise again. thought a cap will kill the action. but ok, me nuts me cap next time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

The way you played is fine. I just find that regardless of the flop action sometimes they give crazy turn action anyway.

kidcolin · #7 03-02-2006, 08:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
odds: ~1:12
do I think i win this pot 7.7%
hell yeah, i do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't. And I haven't looked at results yet. You're banking on him going nuts with a straight and/or flush draw in which you hold two of the key cards. if he is doing that, it's likely a straight+pair combo hand.

EDIT: I didn't really think about the possibility of J8 much for some reason. That makes it a little closer. I still lean towards a fold, mostly based on his turn play.

CrayZee · #8 03-02-2006, 08:02 PM

I'd cap the flop instead of calling a 3-bet to induce a turn bet. Clearly he likes his hand on the flop, I'd get my nut money in the pot.

I'd play it the same from the flop and on since this opponent isn't the most aggressive, but is somewhat. He could have the full house on the paired board. As this is HU, I wouldn't muck for one bet on the river unless you have psychic abilities.