Let's take this street by street...

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Even if the bet itself is -EV, I would guess that letting this turn get checked through is way more -EV. I think checking is a big mistake.

Not betting is only a bigger mistake than making a -EV bet if betting increases our equity. Our equity only increases if our bet makes a hand that can improve to beat us folds *or* if the amount additional money that will call the bet is greater than the odds against us winning. (i.e., we're ahead 1/3 of the time and we bet and get 3 callers.)

If what you're saying is that you're convinced we're ahead on the turn 1/3 of the time, I won't argue. If you're saying any opponent drawing to a single [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that is not the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will fold if we bet and the button raises, that's a thin assumption, but I accept the logic.

I just don't think the combined probability of those circumstances being true here is very likely.

I have, of course, been known to be wrong before. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[JJH3984]

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Why would we ever want to give a free card considering the nature of the board, the size of the pot, and the likelyhood that at least two of our opponents are drawing? Considering how big the pot is, we WANT to be raised by the button with some kind of combo pair/draw. Even if the bet itself is -EV, I would guess that letting this turn get checked through is way more -EV. I think checking is a big mistake.

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personally i think calling a raise here after our donk bet is a mistake.

i still like the donk however

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So your comfertable folding getting about 20:1 against a LAG who has a chance to face people who are probably drawing with two bets cold?

[bernie]

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I feel like I must bet this turn. I'm hoping to get raised by a worse hand to face the two checkers w/ 2 bets cold.


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I highly doubt, given the player profiles, that you'd be raised on the turn by a lesser hand.

b

[JJH3984]

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If what you're saying is that you're convinced we're ahead on the turn 1/3 of the time, I won't argue.



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Given the description of button/others, I think we're ahead a fair amount of the time. Obviously less than 50% and I'd think more than 25%. Also even if we are behind, I think we are often drawing pretty live against two pair type hands. This will increase our equity in the pot.

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If you're saying any opponent drawing to a single [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that is not the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will fold if we bet and the button raises, that's a thin assumption, but I accept the logic.


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I don't know if I have enough information to determine this with any degree of accuracy. I've certainly played against players who would fold any single [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that isn't the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] when faced with two bets cold in this spot. I've also played against players who would call with the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] here.

So in summation, I have no idea.

[scpi10]

With the info about the players given, what types of hands is anyone putting these people on? This is a big hole in my game and i'm trying to work on it.

[JoeU]

Joe,

I've looked at everyone elses replies, and I don't see how check/calling 1 bet here is horrible. Betting and folding to a raise is horrible. Check/calling 2 cold if the BB or UTG wakes up from a button bet is bad too.

If you get a bet from the button, regardless of the amount of callers, I'm calling 1 bet. Also, by calling that one bet, you have position and are closing the action again.

Its either bet/call 1 raise, or check/call 1 bet for me. I'm leaning towards checking.

Joe

[Joe Tall]

Let's review:

2 folds to me and I raise the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The button, who is the fiance' of a OK pro, can be over aggressive, never seen two broadway cards she didnt like, 3-bets. She thinks I play too loose and aggro preflop, but gives me respect postflop.

The BB who never folded a BB nor too many flops in his life, calls,

UTG calls, I cap, all call.

FLOP (16.5SBs): J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB and UTG check, I bet, button raises, BB and UTG call 2 cold.

That was easy boys, nice work, I called.

Turn: (12.2BBs) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
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BB checks, UTG checks and I bet.

There is too much of a chance that this will be checked through, I'm very likely ahead of 2 if not 3 of the hands and very likely to get 3 callers. The combination of these two statements move us into +EV land.

They all called.

River: (16.2BBs) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, UTG checks.

Your action?

Please answer with hand ranges for all opponents. You have good amount of information after the turn and the river doesn't change much obviously.

[Harv72b]

Based on the way you described UTG & BB, their range could basically include any pair or any draw, as well as (at least in the case of UTG) a baby flush, straight, two pair, maybe even a set. It's also not outside the realm of the possible that either of them slowplayed the stone nuts all the way to the river, though very unlikely. You didn't say too much about their showdown range, which of course greatly affects whether or not you have a value bet on the river--I would imagine that UTG is calling a bet with jacks or better at least. Can't say for BB.

Button most likely has some piece of the board. AJ seems fairly likely; KJ would probably have put in another raise on the turn, as would a set. A hand like AK/KQ/AQ with a single heart is also possible. I'd imagine she makes the crying call with top pair (definitely with AK), and sometimes puts in another bet with AJ. QQ is also a possibility, not sure if she calls again with that though, as is TT (especially with the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), which probably isn't calling another bet.

So I really think it depends on how low you believe UTG & BB are willing to go on the crying call meter as to whether or not you have a value bet; I don't believe you really have one vs. Button's range here, especially since she's not closing the action. At least, that's the impression I get from your read.

Instinctively I want to bet again, but intellectually this looks more like a check/call 1 situation. Although I'm clearly betting if UTG/BB are often calling with 1 pair hands. I think that if you do bet & either of them check/raises then you should have a fairly easy, albeit painful, fold.

[JJH3984]

Ranges:

I can't put UTG on anything but a straight/flush draw. She seems like the type to donk OOP with strong pair/two pair/straight/flush type hands. Because she has just c/c all streets, she's gotta have a draw or weak made hand that we beat.

BB is more likely to have small pair type hands, but his range is probably about the same as UTG. Depending on how passive they are, they could also have two pair type hands. These must be discounted however. We were ahead of their ranges on the turn and the 4 of spades obviously doesn't change that.

The button's range is a bit more problematic. If she's a LAG, she probably doesn't have a set here, but she could have AA, QQ or TT. Depending on how LAGy she thinks we are preflop, she can have AK, KJ, KhQx, KT?, AJ, Ahx where x is a ten or higher. If she isn't as agro as I think, or if she tends to shut down on the big streets, she could have lots of stronger hands that beat us.

That range might be off, but the more I look at it, the more this looks like a bet to me. I think, given the turn action, we are actually ahead of everyone's range, and I think the pot size dictates a bet as we will be called by all kinds of second best hands.

Edit: If button is gonna bet with lots of second best hands or check behind with lots of hands we beat, I like checking a lot more. In this case, I think she's gonna tend to bet the best hand and check second best hands.

[JoeU]

In your previous post, you listed the UTG as "bts with the best, checks with the rest". You forgot to add it in the recap.

As for ranges:

BB: Really looks like a big draw that they didn't want to lay down (any T or any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).
UTG: Looks like a similar draw as BB, and he never got there too. If he did, you would have heard about it on the turn.
Button: I am a little worried, but I think we have the best hand. Either she has AQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],maybe even KK. But it is more like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Jx and she really didn't like the K on the turn.

Bet the river and see what happens. I might be inclined to call a raise, especially from the button. I won't be happy if UTG adds the raise though. The BB is definitely folding here (I think).

Joe