Home Game EV Question

[pfapfap]

I'm having a disagreement with somebody about theory/strategy, and I figured I'd throw it past y'all. I know some don't want this to be a strategy forum, but I think this is specific to the weird glorious hideous beast we all love known as Home Games.

The question is about slight EV situations with large stacks against weak players. This is a $20 home game, but there are a lot of rebuys and stacks tend to grow. I found myself in a situation where I'd have to risk $100 on a possibly slight +EV situation, but I elected to pass.

My reasoning is that I'd rather take a strong advantage for $20 five times than a slight advantage for $100 once. If this were a game that ran indefinitely, I wouldn't feel that way, but it's a three hour game once a week, and every week we start fresh at $20 each. When the hand in question came up, we were near the end of the evening, and I felt that the emotional effect of so many chips moving around would negate some of the slight EV advantage, whereas I could hold back and find a better chance later.

Is this bad thinking? Is this looking to "book a win" rather than be a long term winner? I think all this "take any advantage at any time" thinking is more appropriate to deep stacked games that run for days at a time, or for online or B&M games that continue indefinitely. I think a fixed-time game with shallow starting stacks requires a different approach. Am I wrong?

[rchandra]

If you can't rebuy for $100 right away and the game is continuing for a while (tonight, while you still have $100) you should pass - the situation is a bit like a tournament.

If the game is continuing and you can rebuy for the $100 you should take the +EV - there's no reason not to.

If the game is breaking for the night soon and you have to rebuy for $20 next time you should take the +EV chance - again you aren't likely to be forgoing etter opportunities.

Basically you just have to see if taking the +EV causes you to forgo more +EV chances when you lose, and that only happens when you lose your deep stack and can't replace it.

[pfapfap]

Hmm, interesting. Do you think it's a major error to pass on it?

I feel there's more than straight numbers to consider. This is a game that runs for 3-4 hours once a week. We're down to four handed. Two maniacs, a loose/passive player, and me. I have a stack of about $160 from a $20 buyin. A situation came up with loose/passive threatening my stack. He's the worst player in the game and I know from long experience that I will be able to get the rest of his chips before the night is through, but part of that relies on him gambling a bit and then getting short stacked and bluffing or chasing with bad odds.

I feel that if he doubles his stack through me, things will change on the table. Despite my best intentions, I'll be thrown off my A-game. He may realize that he got very lucky and tighten up. The other two maniacs may see this as a golden opportunity to turn up the aggression, against me and l/p. With only an hour remaining in the game, I'm confident that I can get a bunch of small pots off of l/p, but not so sure that I can recover the $100+ that I'd lose on that hand.

Am I being overly cautious here? Early in the evening, I'm happily pushing any advantage, semi-bluffing all-in, etc. But late in the evening, I feel like I want my stack to be a black hole from which other chips never escape. Since the stakes at this point are higher than they are during most of the rest of the evening, is this bad thinking? It's not just the immediate EV, but the time involved in getting back to that point.

...and this could be results-oriented thinking, but I passed on this situation and DID end up stacking the person in question a few more times through the night, something that relied on our relative chip stacks to make happen. Had I lost and re-bought for $100 against his $300, I don't think I'd have been able to do that.

[rchandra]

If it affects how people play, then you may be right - especially if loose/passive will tighten up. I often find people overstate such an effect, but I wasn't there. It's not likely to be a major error to pass since you said it's a "slight +EV" - no matter if it's clearcut it can't be major.

[Small Fry]

I'd say passing on any +ev chance in a cash game is bad, BUT, there are always other considerations to be taken into account, which it sounds like you're doing. Or are you just using these as excuses to justify some weak, results oriented play?

The game of poker, no matter where or how played is one long giant session. You can't seperate, online from casino from home from tourney from PLO from Hold'em. Sure they require different skill sets to play but your still playing poker. At any point in time a player can take the worst of it and get lucky. The difference between the skilled player and the unskilled is the skilled player is able to have more information at his disposal and therefore make a more informed decision.

So, since you know you and your game best, if you feel passing up one +ev situation will cause more or greater +ev situations to arise because the nature of the play / players then passing is itself a +ev move. If you think losing a large stack at the end of the evening could have lasting implications that effect your play or that of others for the rest of the night or even for future sessions then again you need to factor that into your decision. No need to get stacked for a couple hundred and then tilt off a few more.

Just my .02

[entrepeneur]

"I found myself in a situation where I'd have to risk $100 on a possibly slight +EV situation"

To me (hack-low stakes player), it seems like you described a 'coin-flip' situation betting on heads and heads is slightly weighted in your favor.

You said a 'possibly slight +ev' situation. That doesn't instill confidence that you are a 60/40 or 55/45 favorite there.

If this guy is a bad player (as you've said) and you feel like there will be more chances to stack him when you're for sure in a +ev situation, I don't think it's a horrible decision.

Not that Mike Sexton is the authority (but I do respect his thoughts), you'll often hear him talk about this. When the pro knows he's better, and believes himself to probably be in a coin-flip situation, he'll sometimes let it go and wait for a better spot. If you didn't feel like this was the spot, that's your call.

I go through the same thing with our maniac in our game. Those situations where I 'probably' am slightly ahead (but not sure), I sometimes won't take the shot. I know that I'll be in better situations with those 68suited type hands later that he won't have a clue about and I'll stack him.

I've also seen my maniac win that big hand (3 times now) and declare his 20 minutes to leaving.

I don't think it's results oriented, I think it's just choosing your spots. But I don't play for a living, just once a week for 3-5 hours.

IF I were you and I did fold, I would choose to fold in some sort of dramatic way contingent on what gets him going (he thinks you tilt if you see a bluff or he thinks you tilt if you see you laid down the best hand).

If he thinks he's in your head (which bad players will think), then fold in the way that best suits your needs.

Last time we played, I laid down a hand (not real excited about it and he knew it). Few hands later, we get it all in preflop with my KK to his A/10 os (horrible player). Blinds 10/20cents and he ends up calling a $20 all in after some rasing thinking I was tilting.

Sorry..too much coffee this morning.

I think it's read based.

[grebe]

I have some problems with the "one continuous session" thinking for home games, because the fact is the dynamics of every game can be so different in the game as the night wears on...but the end result seems to be confirmed. Not a mistake at all.

Giving up a slight advantage during one single hand to protect your stack I would think would create situations later for you to exploit as that player gains confidence at being able to bluff you. I use this strategy constantly against LAGs i play against. Bluff successfully once or twice to take small pots against me (where i might have been ahead), then lose it all back and more when I am a huge fav.

Passing on the 53 percenters, saving your chips for the 75 percenters I think is +ev...especially when your laggers are trained to push against you.

[pfapfap]

Good to know I'm not completely crazy for thinking along these lines.

This wasn't even a decision of calling preflop with a PP vs overs or anything. I'll post it later in the strat forum, but it was a goofy situation where my read put me at a -EV, but of course his range is a little more than my read, so I have to factor that in, making it a slight +EV.

But here's the thing, and I think it's important... this guy was on his last or close to last buy-in. I could pass on a slight advantage here and have a huge advantage later for the very same chips. That is, I can't with BOTH the immediate situation AND win the same amount later. So I see it as making a choice between 51% and 80%. Calling 51%, while correct "technically" on the specific hand, seems to be negative expectation in the twisted finite reality of home games. Right?

[Small Fry]

If you know that 80% is going to come up then I don't see a problem passing on the 51%.

Is this math correct?: If you have $160 and can get it all in at 51% and then rebuy for $100 and get it in later at 80% then your expectation for those two hands is about $63 ($3 + $60). But you said you might not be able to get that second all in due to .....whatever, so lets reduce that second expectation by half (sometimes it happens, sometimes not). Now your expectation is reduced to $33. If you wait to get the $160 in at 80% then your expectation is $96. By waiting you've gained over $60. Even if you can get that $100 rebuy all in every time it's still better to wait, by over $30. If thats correct then there is no way waiting is a mistake. It's Friday, what am I doing wrong?

[entrepeneur]

You said it was a $20 home game. If that is the max buy-in, then if you got stacked, you could only buy back in for $20. That would certainly have a big impact on those decisions as well. You said there were a lot of rebuys and stacks tend to grow, but I'm assuming that you don't change the buy-in max throughout the night.
I love this site, by the way. New to it from (other site) and I enjoy all the discussions here.