Tough river call?

[Gone Forever]

Full Tilt Poker Game #2785738403: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (21243180), Table 1 - 60/120 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L - 15:15:09 ET - 2007/06/27

Seat 5: BOUNTYHUNTERX (3,793)
Seat 7: Pitt Stop (5,454)
Seat 8: jojorisn (1,386)
Seat 9: ClipperJockey (2,867)

Pitt Stop posts the small blind of 60
jojorisn posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #5

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ClipperJockey [4d Ks 2s Ah]

ClipperJockey calls 120
BOUNTYHUNTERX calls 120
Pitt Stop has 15 seconds left to act
Pitt Stop folds
jojorisn checks

*** FLOP *** [3s Kc Td]

jojorisn checks
ClipperJockey checks
BOUNTYHUNTERX bets 210
jojorisn has 15 seconds left to act
jojorisn folds
ClipperJockey has 15 seconds left to act
ClipperJockey calls 210

*** TURN *** [3s Kc Td] [6s]

ClipperJockey checks
BOUNTYHUNTERX bets 420
ClipperJockey calls 420

*** RIVER *** [3s Kc Td 6s] [6c]

ClipperJockey checks
BOUNTYHUNTERX has 15 seconds left to act
BOUNTYHUNTERX bets 1,680
ClipperJockey has 15 seconds left to act

What do you do?


<font color="white">
ClipperJockey calls 1,680
*** SHOW DOWN ***
BOUNTYHUNTERX shows [Jc 8d Ac 2h] a pair of Sixes, for high
ClipperJockey shows [4d Ks 2s Ah] two pair, Kings and Sixes, for high
ClipperJockey wins the pot (5,040) with two pair, Kings and Sixes
No low hand qualified
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5,040 | Rake 0
Board: [3s Kc Td 6s 6c]
Seat 5: BOUNTYHUNTERX (button) showed [Jc 8d Ac 2h] and lost with HI: a pair of Sixes
Seat 7: Pitt Stop (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: jojorisn (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: ClipperJockey showed [4d Ks 2s Ah] and won (5,040) with HI: two pair, Kings and Sixes
</font>

[prodonkey]

hmmm.. well I think you kinda played it bad all around.. Raise preflop! Bet flop! Limping a24k utg when a short stack is in the bb is pretty bad imo.

well no draws got there.. but he bet it the whole way.. personally I'd bet the flop. I'm much more apt to call this river bet when a flopped flush draw didn't get there. You're ahead of JQ and and other random bluffs. I guess T3 and K3 got counterfited.. the way you played it I guess I'd call and not love it.

[bbartlog]

I call here too unless I've seen villain do something similarly tricky with a nut hand. Villain's river bluff is a nice example of someone trying to steal the pot without constructing a plausible narrative.
For KKxx, KTxx, TTxx, 33xx we could believe that villain would only have bet 2/3 pot on the relatively unthreatening flop, but would he really bet so weakly on the turn now that the board is suddenly draw-heavy? Not likely, so we have to think these are probably blocking bets for a draw like QJxx. Which means unless he has QJ6x (no playable hands in this group) or AAxx (he would raise preflop) we're good on the river.
Looking at his actual holdings, I'm surprised he had so little - I would have expected some draw (more than a gutshot and a backdoor low). Guess he figured you'd be playing scared on the bubble [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[BradleyT]

ICM pre-hand

Player 1 3793.000000 0.2810 0.2984 0.2725 $25.60
Player 2 5454.000000 0.4040 0.3130 0.2046 $30.31
Player 3 2867.000000 0.2124 0.2512 0.3096 $21.91
Player 4 1386.000000 0.1027 0.1374 0.2134 $12.17


ICM folding river

Player 1 4723.000000 0.3499 0.3341 0.2282 $28.87
Player 2 5394.000000 0.3996 0.3307 0.2012 $30.53
Player 3 2117.000000 0.1568 0.2050 0.3368 $18.65
Player 4 1266.000000 0.0938 0.1303 0.2338 $11.95


ICM calling river and losing
Player 1 6403.000000 0.4743 0.3806 0.1298 $33.95
Player 2 5394.000000 0.3996 0.4152 0.1631 $32.13
Player 3 437.000000 0.0324 0.0541 0.1901 $6.34
Player 4 1266.000000 0.0938 0.1501 0.5169 $17.58


ICM calling river and winning
Player 1 1363.000000 0.1010 0.1466 0.3234 $14.32
Player 2 5394.000000 0.3996 0.3590 0.1878 $31.05
Player 3 5477.000000 0.4057 0.3575 0.1847 $31.23
Player 4 1266.000000 0.0938 0.1370 0.3042 $13.39


So you stand to lose $12 or gain $13. You should be able to figure out how often you need to win for you to make this call.

However keep in mind that ICM tends to overvalue a very small stack. When you're left with 437 chips you're pretty much forced to win multiple hands unless two other stacks go at it and one gets knocked out. Also note player 1 gains money no matter what you do and player 4 gains money regardless of if you win or lose as long as you call. And if you look at the hand start to finish - you'll gain ~$9.50 for winning but lose ~$15.50 for losing.



Finally let's say you decided to go all in preflop with this guy.

When you win
Player 1 926.000000 0.0686 0.1062 0.2861 $11.10
Player 2 5394.000000 0.3996 0.3823 0.1772 $31.49
Player 3 5914.000000 0.4381 0.3691 0.1589 $32.54
Player 4 1266.000000 0.0938 0.1424 0.3778 $14.87

When you lose
Player 1 6840.000000 0.5067 0.3896 0.1037 $35.19
Player 2 5394.000000 0.3996 0.4517 0.1487 $32.85
Player 3 0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00
Player 4 1266.000000 0.0938 0.1587 0.7475 $21.96


You only gain $11 for winning but lose $21.91 for losing making going all in preflop really really bad unless you know you're a 66:33 favorite.

So remember to keep in mind - A) Chips you gain are never worth as much as chips you lose B) Doubling your chips doesn't double your equity C) Going to war with a stack that has you covered when there's a stack less than half your stack is very bad and you need to be a large favorite to do so.

[Gone Forever]

I honestly raise with this hand preflop nearly 100% of the time in this situation. I really couldn't tell you why I didn't raise it this time.

I didn't bet the flop because I only had a single pair, and I had no low draw. I know that if I do bet and the big stack raises me or the low stack check raises me I have to abandon my hand and lose whatever chips I already put in the middle. I didn't know it at the time, but, not betting here ended up winning me a ton more chips than betting out would have.

So short stack and I check and big stack pauses and then bets. He bets half the pot. Short stack folds. Honestly, I'm suspicious about his bet. I think it seems more than likely the big stack is betting simply because nobody showed any kind of strength on the flop.

On the other hand if he did have a single pair, I'm beating him and at the very worst, I'm only losing to aces. I'm pretty sure he doesn't have Aces simply because at this stage in the game he would have definitely raised preflop. If he has two pair that doesn't include a King, I have 11 outs. If he has Kings and Tres I have 6 outs. If he's got Kings and Tens I have only three outs. Now if I'm completely wrong about him and he has a Set of anything, I'm pretty screwed here and I'll need to make runner runner to scoop or halve this pot.

Being that I'm not 100% dead to any hand he could hold, I don't really think he has much of anything, and I have top pair and a backdoor Nut low draw I decide I MUST see the next card so I call.

The turn brings a Six giving me the nut low draw in addition to top pair. I check. He bets half pot again. Nothing really changed from my initial analysis except my hand got stronger. I still think he's position betting. I'm going to call any bet he makes here.

The River turns up the second six. This is a very interesting card. Unless he hit running Sixes, had a set or had Aces to begin with, I'm now winning this hand. Now he bets pot. This is a huge bet. It's forcing me to put all but 437 of my chips in the middle on the bubble.

If I call and my read was wrong, I'm out. (Obviously I still have 437 chips, but the blinds are at 60/120 and I'd be the BB next hand giving me 317 chips after posting.) I honestly thought about folding this for about 10 seconds. I ran the hand back in my head and decided to go with my initial read and I called.

I was completely surprised to see him turn over A2J8 for AJ high. I thought he would have at least had a pair. I also thought it was odd that both of us having A2FACELOW decided not to raise preflop.