TomG's Robot Professional MLB Betting

[TomG]

Thanks Donny. I have updated my spreadsheet with the latest batting line-ups and pitching/hitting stats. I too am looking forward to actually having some picks again.

[ncboiler]

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ncboiler,

Start with

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...look-at-dips1/

and then read all of David Gassko's DIPS articles ending with the latest DIPS 3.0 research.

It might help to think of things this way... once a batter makes contact with the ball, it doesn't matter who threw it... the pitcher could be Johan Santana or Matt Chico. It doesn't matter once impact is made. So in that sense the pitcher isn't responsible for the hit because no other pitcher could have prevented it. This is a general statement and there are exceptions and conditions (for example, is there such a thing as a "flyball pitcher" or a "ground ball pitchers" and if so can they impact their BABIP?). It is a very in-depth topic and rather breaking it all down here I suggest you do some reading.

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Thanks

[fun160]

[ QUOTE ]
I have updated my spreadsheet with the latest batting line-ups and pitching/hitting stats. I am looking forward to actually having some picks again.

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Are you worried about the interleague stats skewing your calculations? For instance, the AL West got fat against the NL, going 44-28. Even the woeful Rangers were 11-7 against the Senior Circuit.

[JoshEngleman]

OK, I sort of have something similar set up so I'd liket o share my lines here, too. Maybe as a comparison of systems, I guess. I have 20 cent lines at BetEd so that's what I'll be using compared to my lines.

For the early games, I have:

Marlins @ BetEd -165. I have them at -178.
Cleveland @ BetEd -125. I have them at -178.
Toronto @ BetEd -118. I have them at -155.

I stay away from the Detroit game because I'm still worried about Kenny Rogers. I just set up this system so here's hoping we have a winner.

[New001]

How do you have Cleveland at -178 with Byrd pitching? I jumped all over Oakland at +112, and I think this is at worst a coinflip and at best Oakland should be a slight favorite.

[JoshEngleman]

Honestly, I was a little suprised by that too. By the numbers, there really isn't much difference in Byrd and Blanton. At least, based on FIP there isn't. The reason the line gets so skewed is because I have Cleveland's offense at nearly a run per game better than Oakland's. Plus the little bit of HFA and that's how I got that number.

Remember, don't take these for gospel or anythi0ng, I'm working the kinks out. I don't necessarily agree with the picks, but I agree with the math.

[irisheyes]

Agreed -178 on Byrd seems very skewed. I'm with New001. If anything I'd lean OAK on this because the numbers have Blanton as a far better pitcher than Byrd. Florida is a good bet that I agreed with @2 units (easy for me to say now @5-0 in the 3rd). -155 on Burnett also seems high to me. I didn't think there was an edge in that game, but good luck. It will be interesting to compare picks.

[Edit: 'Far better' is definitely an overstatement, and I don't have CLE's offense with as big of a lead over OAK--which is surely the difference]

[JoshEngleman]

With the Toronto game, it looks a lot better as a dime line @ -145, in my opinion. That's the problem with these 20 cent lines, they really put a heavy price on the favorites.

Back to the Oak/Cle game, Blanton's FIP is about .75 runs better than Byrd's this year, but I also factor in the previous 3 years stats too. Basically it regresses people that are performing out of line of their past. With Blanton, it is possible he is just becoming a better pitcher. Coming into this year, their three year split FIPs were seperated by only 0.03.

[irisheyes]

Completely agreed on the past stats/regression. Although I do believe it does look like he's becoming a better pitcher. Certainly having a better year than Byrd (for all that's worth).

[JoshEngleman]

Yeah, Blanton is definitely having a better year, bar none. This will be one of those things I'll keep an eye on as the system progresses...finding the happy medium in regressing this year's stats to past performance.