Predicting Tournament Performance

[Jetto2]

I have try to find a way to calculate RoR in S&G <= 27 players and there is similitude between your formula and yours. But I based my formula on observation.

I adapt a video poker article : http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm

As probability of wining I use the number of time I was in each place on my previous game. This give me an observed EV. This also make possible to calculate a RoR.

But this very hard to know the confidence to the result.