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#1
06-28-2007, 12:06 AM
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should i be shoving everytime here with the monster draw?
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)
SB: $2.70 BB: $1.70 UTG: $19.35 MP: $7.45 Hero (CO): $7.85 BTN: $3.55 Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players) UTG calls $0.10, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $0.30, UTG calls $0.30 Flop: ($1.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) <font color="red">BB bets all-in for $1.30</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $2.60</font>, Hero... 
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#2
06-28-2007, 12:14 AM
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Re: should i be shoving everytime here with the monster draw?
it's only 12 outs, don't overvalue it; there's a good chance he beats top pair, so I'm not counting the A as an out.
I'd much rather just call and evaluate the turn
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#3
06-28-2007, 12:21 AM
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Re: should i be shoving everytime here with the monster draw?
[ QUOTE ]
it's only 12 outs, don't overvalue it; there's a good chance he beats top pair, so I'm not counting the A as an out. I'd much rather just call and evaluate the turn [/ QUOTE ] i agree completely.
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#4
06-28-2007, 01:16 AM
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Re: should i be shoving everytime here with the monster draw?
Hero's not getting odds to call, implied odds on hitting your flush card aren't enough to justify calling 2:1 on this flop. It's shove or fold, and I probably shove figuring the 3 Aces, 9 spades, 3 jacks are good.
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#5
06-28-2007, 01:18 AM
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Re: should i be shoving everytime here with the monster draw?
[ QUOTE ]
Hero's not getting odds to call, implied odds on hitting your flush card aren't enough to justify calling 2:1 on this flop. It's shove or fold, and I probably shove figuring the 3 Aces, 9 spades, 3 jacks are good. [/ QUOTE ] You think hitting a J is good? I can't really see villain minraising without at least a K (usually).
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#7
06-28-2007, 01:20 AM
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Re: should i be shoving everytime here with the monster draw?
Oh and i think you forgot the 3 nonspade Qs C4ll.
That might be what you meant instead of jacks? Edit: thats what i figured [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#8
06-28-2007, 01:30 AM
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Re: should i be shoving everytime here with the monster draw?
Your fold equity is low because you are shortstacked. He will only have to call less than 1/2 pot if you push. You don't have the odds to call so I would push or fold. That said with the dead $ you probably have odds on a push with 12 outs.
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#9
06-28-2007, 01:42 AM
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Re: should i be shoving everytime here with the monster draw?
I'll be interested to see the consensus on this one. To me it feels right to shove here and put the pressure back on the big stack. If you are in the worst case scenario, which is to me, UTG having pocket KKs for the top trips. You still have at least 7 live spades and 3 Qs for the nuts, which makes me about 27% in this horrible scenario due to the redraws. All I can tell you is that almost 100% guaranteed Doyle would shove here and we need to protect our pot equity and see a 5th card if necessary and exploit whatever fold equity we have left (not much).
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#10
06-28-2007, 01:45 AM
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Re: should i be shoving everytime here with the monster draw?
[ QUOTE ]
it's only 12 outs, don't overvalue it; there's a good chance he beats top pair, so I'm not counting the A as an out. I'd much rather just call and evaluate the turn [/ QUOTE ] He has less than $8 in front of him to start the hand. If he only has 12 outs he's still 45% to win if he gets it in on the flop. I don't want to do the math but I would think with the money in there pushing is the way to go.
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